Nitish's ATOM Politics .... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ April 24, 2016

Nitish's ATOM Politics May Well Set Contours of Confrontation for the Next Election

The road to good intentions is paved with hellfire. Any foolproof planning in Indian politics missing a clear roadmap promises more chances of failure than fortune. Slogans can ignite riots but cannot deliver victory in war. Without even waiting for the outcome of the recent Assembly polls, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar has announced his vision and mission with sass and sauce. PM Narendra Modi wants a Congress Mukt (Congress-free) India, but Nitish has blown the bugle for all non-BJP parties to gather under his banner to establish a Sangh Mukt Bharat (RSS-free Bharat) to save the democracy.

Nitish began his first stint as the JD(U) chief with the ideological intention to polarise the two national parties along political groupings. His clarion cry appears to have united all non-BJP parties to oust Modi in 2019. But both his admirers and detractors are baffled about this hurry in going public. Is he convinced that Modi is losing charisma and acceptability faster than anyone expected? But Nitish’s moves clearly reveal that he has declared war on the Saffron Parivar. He has projected himself as the only credible alternative to Modi. His promoters are convinced that he is as clean as the PM. They feel his Vikas Purush tag is equally convincing if not more than Modi’s.

Since Nitish has the advantage of rallying the minorities behind him and attracting a load of liberal and secular middle class votes, they have decided to demolish the PM’s core credentials. He had venomously said, “Management is more important than event management.” It is evident that Nitish has drawn up his field guide well and formulated a strategy for a long-drawn-out battle. He had made an attempt to forge a Bihar-type Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Assam, but failed after the Congress refused to surrender its space.

The timing and tone, however, of the Bihar CM’s declaration are interesting. He, along with RJD chief Lalu Prasad, sprang a surprise by stopping the Modi juggernaut in the state by scoring a decisive victory over the BJP in 2015. While the BJP’s defeat raised questions over its invincibility and Modi’s popularity, it also emboldened Nitish to extend the Bihar experiment to other parts of the country. He is aware of the ground reality that almost all the non-BJP parties, including the Left, are feeling insecure under Modi’s dispensation. The Congress dreads the lethal use of government apparatus to not only topple its governments in smaller states, but also to dig up dirty pasts of many of its senior leaders and former and current CMs. To add fuel to the fire, the Modi government is moving at bullet train speed to dismantle all the institutions controlled by the Left and anti-RSS elements.

In reality, Modi’s direct confrontation with non-BJP parties, including some of its regional allies, is creating a favourable environment for the creation of a political alternative. Historically, credible substitutes have emerged against powerful personalities and their actions, which their opponents projected as a threat to democracy. Nitish’s plan is to portray Modi as an intolerant and arrogant leader, who along with the RSS, his ideological mentor, poses a serious threat to the nation’s unity and secular character. In 1977, Jaiprakash Narayan brought all non-Congress parties together to oust Indira Gandhi after she imposed the Emergency and suspended fundamentals rights.

Parties, from the north to the south, sacrificed their partisan interests with the singular aim of defeating the Congress and demolishing Indira’s leviathan leadership. The experiment lasted for less than 30 months, as the elements, which came together to challenge her, started to squabble. The first ever anti-Congress initiative died an untimely death with Indira’s triumphant return to power in 1980.

For the next nine years, the Congress once again acquired total control over national politics. It won most of the state polls in 1980 and later harvested a record number of over 400 seats in the Lok Sabha after Indira Gandhi’s assassination. Rajiv Gandhi was seen as an agent of change for a better India. But his charm faded even earlier than his promoters expected. Once again, corruption emerged as the ubiquitous glue to bring all the non-Congress parties, from the CPI(M) to the BJP, occupy a single platform to remove Rajiv and his coterie. There was a difference though. Unlike 1977 when the Janata Party plunged into the electoral battle without a PM candidate, the Opposition fought the 1989 election under the leadership of Congress rebel V P Singh who enjoyed a reputation for impeccable integrity. Their motto: defeat Rajiv, who was leading a corrupt government.

For the next decade, Central governments were formed on the basis of opportunistic alliances in which individuals, not ideology, played a decisive role. But Modi changed the rules of the political battle. Soon after winning the Gujarat elections in 2012, he planned his move in advance to take over 7 Race Course. He tried to bring smaller parties together, with the weak Manmohan Singh—who was protecting and leading a corrupt government—as his target. It was for the first time that a Lok Sabha election was turned into a Presidential election by another name, in which Team Modi converted the war into a struggle between the indomitable, clean development man Modi versus Manmohan. Modi won without even a symbolic fight.

Today Nitish wants to convert the next Lok Sabha election into a conflict between two individuals backed by distinctive ideologies. He tried to lead the anti-BJP coalition when he left the NDA in 2013. It failed to take off. Even now, his resolve to forge an ATOM (alternative to Modi) has run into hurdles posed by leaders like Uttar Pradesh CM Akhilesh Yadav, a section of the Congress and other regional leaders. At the moment, Nitish enjoys the full backing of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee. But they can also put spanners in his works in progress, and both are unacceptable to the Congress. Moreover, the Congress wouldn’t like anyone to give the impression that it has accepted Nitish over Rahul to lead the anti-Modi campaign. Rahul has the advantage over Nitish since his party and family are still a draw across the country. Nitish, however, has defined the contours of confrontation for the next election. The Opposition not only wishes Modi would lose his sheen, but also expects 900 million voters to give a chance to another individual, ignoring the absence of an ideological identity. For now, however, it is an uneven battle between the omnipresent Modi, the vaguely visible Nitish and the occasionally visible Rahul Gandhi.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

For Brand Modi, Endorsing ..... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ March 13, 2016

For Brand Modi, Endorsing New Age Gurus Tiny Price to Win Over Classes and Masses Alike

There’s no business like the godmen business, they say, with no fixed working hours, exotic travel, much public adulation, and no need for a shave every morning. 

No wonder, saints and self-styled godpersons have been around from time immemorial, most of them symbols of sacrifice and wisdom. Some made mountains and caves their natural habitat. Others lived in palaces and forts, as advisers to the throne, with kings and queens running to them for salvation and solutions. 

Today, in the 21st century, we still have gurus and preachers of all shades and faiths, and with solid community, caste or religion support. If yesterday, they were courted by royalty, today they enjoy the patronage and protection of the kings of polity. For, they represent vote banks and mould public opinion. From Punjab to Kerala, from Gujarat to Assam, the nation is dotted with men and women who act as spiritual advisers to the ruling classes and a source of inspiration for the masses. In the process, some of them acquire the image of kingmakers or influencers of government policies.

Consider Sri Sri Ravi Shankar and Baba Ramdev, who have done some admirable work in their respective fields. Their ever-growing visibility and clout in the current political dispensation is an indication of the renewed importance of the guru in the establishment. Both have easy access to the nation’s high and mighty; both have followers across political parties. Corporates, Bollywood stars, even diplomats, stand in awe of them and touch their feet. 

Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not indifferent to their lure. Indeed, the duo provides him easy access to two extreme ends of the Indian social milieu and a huge audience that the Prime Minister loves to engage with. Last week, when Modi chose to attend, and address, the World Cultural Festival (WCF) on the banks of the Yamuna in New Delhi, it reinforced the relevance, effectiveness, acceptability and credibility of India’s saintly symbolism. By spending over three hours at the venue, Modi left no one in doubt that his faith in Sri Sri and his Art of Living (AoL) foundation was unshakable. Not only did Modi and his ministers dismiss with contempt all criticism of the event, they ensured that the entire might of the state was mobilised to make WCF a grand success. Modi, in fact, called WCF a Kumbh of all cultures. Harking back to history, the Prime Minister addressed Sri Sri as Parampujniya Guruji (most revered) and said, “This is the Kumbh Mela of culture. Through Art of Living, the world has got to know about India. I remember a reception by the Art of Living family in Mongolia. We are all linked not only by economy but also by culture.” 

Much like the maharajas of yore, Modi clearly understands the utility of the new-age gurus. Known for his attention to detail, the Prime Minister knows that both the AoL chief and Ramdev represent the pulse of two major social groups. Sri Sri Ravi Shankar connects him with an upmarket, global following. Indeed, among Sri Sri’s disciples and admirers are the chatterati and upper middle class of all parts of India as well as leaders from the Western world and Muslim-dominated West Asia. He also has a huge following in South India. Above all, his organisation possesses huge skills and expertise in mobilising large numbers of people in many parts of the world. Given that Modi has been targeting the Indian diaspora and people of influence during his foreign visits, he finds in AoL a natural ally.  Ever since Modi took over as Prime Minister in 2014 (when Sri Sri was one of the few spiritual leaders to come out in his support), AoL has been connecting him with many international leaders. Though Ravi Shankar’s posturing on Indo-Pak relations may be at variance with that of the Prime Minister and Sangh Parivar, Modi has allowed the AoL guru to pursue people-to-people contact with Pakistan. AoL also has powerful connections in Jammu and Kashmir, where it is considered to be the most secular link with the ruling party at the Centre. 

If Ravi Shankar is useful to the Prime Minister owing to his connection with the world and liberal India, Baba Ramdev delivers to Modi the rural and urban poor and middle class. The Baba, who belongs to a backward class and has made ‘Everything Desi’ his mantra for success, is one of the rare spiritual leaders with hardly any formal education and training. The 50-year-old guru started his Patanjali Institute to bring yoga to the common man and, within a period of two decades, has acquired over 25 million followers across the country. His yoga camps are attended by over 10,000 people daily. While Sri Sri promotes breathing as an instrument of wellness, Ramdev emphasises on physical exercises. In the past few years, Modi has been a frequent visitor to Ramdev’s ashram in Haridwar and has always invited the Baba for any important official function held in connection with spirituality. 

There may be a connection of conviction between Ramdev and Sri Sri and the Prime Minister, but critics believe the relationship is based on an understanding of mutual advantage. Modi detractors have already charged the NDA government with doling out huge financial and other concessions to both the gurus. For the New Delhi event, they point out, the Union government not only gave a massive grant, but it also deployed the Army to create the infrastructure at the venue. Now, with AoL beginning the sale of daily use products like mineral water and toothpaste, their suspicions are even more heightened. On his part, Ramdev has never hidden his commercial interests. His swadeshi Pathanjali has taken on well-established multinationals selling FMCGs and hawks energy drinks, beauty creams and yoga DVDs. Various government agencies, including the defence ministry, are among his clients. 

Given their huge fan following and resources, both AoL and Patanjali’s dependence on the government is quite baffling and erodes their credibility. But for Brand Modi, it is a tiny price to pay for the endorsement of Sri Sri and Ramdev who mesmerise a substantive section of Indians, here and abroad.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

For Modiplomacy to succeed, ....... Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/ January 03, 2016

For Modiplomacy to Succeed, PM Should Either Include Pak Army in Talks or Neutralise  It

Trust without verification invariably proves fatal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi must be ruing the day he was persuaded to trust Pakistan’s political establishment led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. To give innovative diplomacy a chance, Modi forgot the historical truth about the Indo-Pak peace dialogue. It keeps alternating between farce and tragedy in the space between one terror attack and another. In a blood-stained New Year message, Pak-supported terrorists massacred the budding friendship between the two leaders by attacking the airforce base station in Pathankot.  Coming barely a week after Modi’s bold landing in Lahore for Sharif’s birthday celebrations, the fidayeen attacks reinforced the harsh reality that the Pakistani political runway is obstructed by India-baiters whose only objective is to let its mammoth neighbour bleed. These saboteurs project the four meetings between Modi and Sharif in the past 20 months as a mere exchange of social pleasantries. They ignore the intent and content of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s discussions with Sharif during her Pakistan visit in December 2015. The movers and shakers of Pakistan’s parallel establishment have treated the decisions taken at a meeting between the National Security Advisers (NSAs) of the two countries in Bangkok as needless notebooks meant for waste paper basket. Above all, the images of Sharif and Modi holding hands in Lahore or whispering in each other’s ears in Paris are acts of betrayal of their idea of fundamentalist Islam. They have returned every handshake with hand grenades and gunfire, killing Indian security personnel and civilians. For the blood-thirsty jihadists, the survival of a fundamentalist Pakistan depends on promoting terror and not adopting good economics. Terror is their most lucrative business. It gets them weapons and women, money and mosques, and the authority to dictate terms to a democratically elected government. Cocking a snook at the growing bonhomie between the two PMs, the terrorists have slain over 50 Indian defence personnel in the past year.

It would be facetious to expect any element of surprise over the weekend’s terror attacks. For Modi, such an ugly response to his gestures couldn’t have come at a worse time. He has already defied his core constituency, which wants war and not words with Pakistan. He has sent clear signals to his ministers and diplomats that they should walk the extra mile to give dialogue a chance; like Atal Bihari Vajpayee had done even after being betrayed umpteen times. From all indications, it is clear that both domestic and external interlocutors had assured Modi that Sharif was capable of ensuring the successful continuation of a comprehensive Indo-Pak dialogue. Successive Indian Prime Ministers have been given similar assurances by the powerful US, which treats Pakistan as its crony colony and its ambivalent army as ally against any selective terrorism aimed at America. No Pakistani leader, however, could deliver on any of the promises made to India. In 2004, the duplicitous Pervez Musharraf gave a written assurance to Vajpayee that terrorists wouldn’t be allowed to use any part of the Pakistan-controlled territory to operate against India. It was a mockery since more attacks, including the devastating Mumbai strike, continued to happen. According to diplomatic sources, Pakistan NSA Sartaj Aziz, a confidant of Pak Army chief General Raheel Sharif, gave his word to the Indian NSA Ajit Doval in Bangkok that the Army will tame all home-based terrorists and cripple their capacity to damage India. The assurance was repeated during Swaraj’s Islamabad visit. It was in this atmosphere of accord that Modi decided to land in Lahore and strengthen Sharif’s capability to rally the Pak Army behind him.

Peril in Pathankot has not only diminished Modi’s resolve to dismantle the tangled skein of Indo-Pak relations, but has also proved again that Sharif is not the appropriate person as he doesn’t enjoy full authority and command over the armed forces. He doesn’t have a comfortable political majority in Parliament. He is perceived by the people as a symbol of the aristocracy, the elite and big business interests. Since he comes from Punjab, which is emotionally closer to India than the rest of Pakistan, Sharif doesn’t inspire much support in other regions, except among the rich and mighty in Lahore. During his earlier stint in power, he was effortlessly ousted by a military coup because he and his party were considered ineffective and slaves to the US. During the past four years, he hasn’t been able to contain the ever-growing influence of fundamentalist forces in Pakistan. The number of terror attacks has risen substantially during his tenure because he doesn’t have the army’s full support. Those opposed to dialogue argue that Sharif, who has failed to control jihadis in his own country, cannot be trusted to dismantle the terror establishment whose aim is to damage India.

For Modi the dove, however, hardly any escape routes are left to fly away to peaceful skies. He has too much at stake and can’t afford the rhythm of dialogue he has initiated to break at this stage. Peaceniks and ill-liberals will clamour that any interruption in talks will only strengthen the radicals. Modi will also be under pressure to disclose the content and contours of the dialogue, which he and his team have been holding with Pak leaders since the past few months. Since Modi practices unconventional politics, he will have to connect with the real power holders in Pakistan to take his mission forward. So far, all previous Indian leaders have stuck to conformist mediation by involving just diplomats and civil servants in engaging Pakistan. Perhaps, the time has come for the PM to co-opt Pakistan’s defence establishment, too, in open speak. India cannot ignore the reality that it is the Pakistan army, which dictates decisions in that country. If Modiplomacy has to succeed, Modi should either include the Pak Army in the formal dialogue process or neutralise it if it refuses to fall in line. After all, it is the Indian Army, which has borne the brunt of Pak-sponsored terror, along with innocent citizens. The presence of uniformed officers of both countries, sitting along with political leaders from both sides, will provide more than a photo-op and yield better results. So far, only meetings between the two unequals, Modi and Sharif, have taken place. While Modi represents the mandate of the Indian people and the might of the government, Sharif is merely the face, and not the force, of the government in Pakistan. Modi must verify Sharif’s credibility and clarity before reposing trust in him again.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla