Rahul's inglorious Past ....Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/May 25, 2014

RAHUL'S Inglorious Past Can be Forgotten 
if he Draws Roadmap for Congress' 
Sunlit Future

The ides of May have brought low India’s pre-eminent dynasty. But will the line of Caesar continue long enough in politics to bring the Congress party deliverance from damnation? India has decisively rejected the Congress, an outfit owned and controlled by the Gandhis since 1998. If in 2004, the dynasty re-asserted its appeal by dethroning the NDA government led by the hugely popular Atal Bihari Vajpayee, in 2014 Hurricane Modi mauled it beyond recognition. Success has many fathers, but failure is always an orphan, shunted around in the hope of finding a convenient lap—an exercise happening currently in the 125-year-old Congress. Patrons of the Manmohan Singh government are holding mother and son responsible for the party’s abysmal rout, choosing to forget that it was India’s weakest ever Prime Minister who customised a grave for the Congress by leading an indecisive and tainted administration. Manmohan will go down in history as the unreturnable prodigal who hobbled his political materfamilias, who had elevated him from a mere Babu to the CEO of a 1.2-billion strong nation.

 

The Manmohan era is an unforgettably dismal chapter in Congress history. The party failed to even win enough seats to claim the position of the leader of the opposition. Its total tally of 44 MPs is just half the number of seats the BJP won from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar alone. The Congress won only one seat within the 325 km radius of the capital—Haryana Chief Minister’s son Deepinder Hooda’s. But instead of focusing on the UPA government’s lame legacy, the savage spotlight is on Rahul Gandhi alone. From corporate leaders to TV’s speaking classes, Rahul is seen as the only fall guy for the party’s pathetic performance. He is accused of depending on foreign-educated technocrats, ignoring Congress grassroots workers and being totally inaccessible to even senior leaders. Undoubtedly, he was the playing captain of his team, pitched against a supremely aggressive Modi riding an unprecedented popularity tsunami. Rahul’s campaign style was confused. He lacked a clear focus. He just kept parroting lines about work done by the government, insentient of the popular hatred towards it. According to Congress sources, he chose an ad agency which was clueless about Indian political idiom and grammar.  He had neither a credible message nor an effective medium to influence the verdict. To give new players executive campaign experience, he picked leaders like Jairam Ramesh and Madhusudan Mistry to manage elections in crucial states like Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh. They lacked even a preliminary knowledge of local equations and issues. In other states too, unknown and untested leaders were sent to fight the Might of Modi.
 

 The knives are out for Rahul. Predictably, most of the Gandhi loyalists have come forward in his defence. But now, apart from accepting responsibility, Rahul also has to ensure accountability not only for his performance but of others as well. He has been in politics for a decade and in office for the past three years. The storm of 2014 has made it abundantly clear that the Gandhi name is no longer the password for a successful entry into the corridors of power. Both Rahul and Sonia are experiencing the phase of diminishing returns. The Congress has been a meal ticket party and if the Gandhis are unable to deliver, it will only shrink further. Rahul can’t get away with excuses such as he hasn’t been allowed absolute freedom to jettison deadwood in the party. Even his admirers feel that if he has to reclaim acceptability, he must take complete charge or get discharged. Since age is on his side, he can take chances an older leader can’t even think of doing. Congressmen expect Rahul to shed the image of a shoot-and-scoot politician who appears on stage and vanishes after delivering random punches. Now he has enough time to reinvent not just himself but also create a new Congress, which can fight as an effective opposition. His mother brought the Congress to power by compromising with regional satraps. His challenge is to get rid of most of them. Like fair-weather birds, most of the Gandhi Parivar’s former and current allies have started dumping it. Rahul started the Revive Congress Operation from UP five years ago and was credited with sweeping 22 Lok Sabha seats. But he failed miserably in the state Assembly elections both in UP and Bihar later. His real test now lies in his ability to ensure that the national status of the Congress remains. Though it rules in over a dozen states, it represents less than 15 per cent of the Indian population and 25 per cent of the total seats. Barring Karnataka, the Congress does not run any large state. Its base started shrinking first in late 1979 when it lost political space to Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu. After that, it started losing out in West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, UP, and also the smaller states. If Verdict 2014 is repeated during the state elections in Maharashtra, the party may not be able to earn the status of the leader of the opposition ever. For Rahul, the task is cut out. He faces the major challenge of replacing the reigning fossils of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. Earlier, frontal organisations like the Mahila Congress, Youth Congress, labour and students’ outfits were major founts of strength for the Congress revival. Under Rahul’s leadership, neither did any of these grow nor did they make any impact on the election outcome. A study of over 300 Congress office-bearers of the AICC and PCCs reveals that over 70 per cent are either from various political clans or have never fought an election. The wrong people have captured the positions of power in the party. Rahul’s survival is tenuously linked with the aptitude to hone his communicative skills, the ability to define his vision, the authority to dump the derelicts and hardly working sycophants and promote the hard-working. His inglorious political past will only be forgotten if he can draw a roadmap along with his sister for a sunlit future of the Congress.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Verdict 2014 ...... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/May 11, 2014

Verdict 2014 Will Lead to Another Battle, of Blame Game and Claims for Success

India’s corporate potentates who went AWOL from the country to avoid donation-hungry politicians are crowding departure lounges. They are the ones who cheered Change 2014, itching to see the transition from a paralysed power system to a dynamic and decisive government. They had already announced the results and spent big bucks on the future government. Political campaigners are back in their nests in opinioned cities like Mumbai, New Delhi, Bangalore and Kolkata to engage in number crunching till the wee hours of May 16. Corporate czars would confabulate with leaders of the party they sponsored and supported to write the script for post-election speeches. Even the agencies which crafted ad campaigns and made millions are busy fashioning one-liners for their clients. As usual, three to four sets of speeches are being written, but only one would be used, depending on the poll outcome. Narendra Modi was not only the omnipresently visible hologram, he also had the maximum supporters from all walks of life working for his success. While senior BJP leaders were banished from his well-choreographed presidential style campaign, his promoters have hired wordsmiths to put together not only his victory speeches but also excuses in case he fails to muster a simple majority. His slogans like ‘Ab Ki Baar, Modi Sarkar’ and ‘Achche din aane wale hain’ (Good times are coming soon) were coined by foreign-educated media professionals. Senior party leaders, including some master strategists, have been eclipsed to prevent them from sharing the credit. Team Modi has been working on three different scenarios and is ready with explanations for each.

• In case BJP wins over 250 seats with over 30 per cent of the votes polled: Modi supporters would slip into a frenzy, the kind which India would have never seen. They would inundate the nation with Modi’s pictures, claiming Modi is India and India is Modi, saying he has upended all caste, community and religious barriers—it’s a vote for Modi, of Modi and by Modi; a positive verdict for a strong and prosperous India. Modi has purged the aura of the Gandhi Parivar, making them irrelevant. It is a mandate for the person who Fevicols India. Finally, Modi would claim that the people have pinned the charge that he was responsible for the 2002 riots. For 12 years, he has been facing various investigation agencies and legal scrutiny for the carnage. He has been a victim of international isolation and was denied a US visa. The West will now bring out the bubbly to celebrate the popular endorsement of the Modi model of governance and politics, which has brought the first-ever saffron government with a majority at the Centre. Modi will be given the full credit for creating an alternative pan-Indian national party.

• If BJP stops at 200 seats: Amit Shah would blame vote bank politics. Non-BJP parties would be accused of striking opportunistic alliances to keep Modi out of power at any cost. Delhi Durbar’s most virulent attack would be on the lack of a strong party organisation at the district level. His parachute regiments would castigate BJP state-level leaders for not giving their best. Since RSS had taken over booth management in all the constituencies BJP contested, Modiites will blame it for not taking others into confidence.

• If BJP is restricted to 180 seats: All hell would break loose in the BJP, with Modi supporters blaming it for under-exploiting his charisma. They would claim that Modi and Modi alone made BJP the single largest party in Parliament. They would hold the minorities responsible for voting with a vengeance against him. However, the party leadership will squarely blame Modi and his team. Advani and admirers would be the first to jump into the melee and say, “Didn’t we tell you Modi would become a polarising poll issue?” They would blame him for selecting wrong candidates, ignoring senior leaders for campaigning and encouraging defectors. He would also be blamed for choosing rootless caste-based parties as allies. As Modi and his megaphones withdraw into the background, it would be left to party president Rajnath Singh to defend BJP’s poor performance. He would perhaps say, “The people have voted against UPA. It is Modi’s popularity and development agenda that gave us so many seats. We are not happy with the final outcome. But overall, it’s a positive vote.” Modi bhakts would blame the Election Commission for its failure to ensure free and fair elections in certain parts of India.

While BJP would still have a cause to smile half-heartedly, Congress would find it difficult to structure a credible response to its dismal show. It is reconciled to one of the following scenarios:

* It gets less than 100 seats: Party leaders would blame Modi for polarising India, but never any member of the Gandhi Parivar. They will tweet that the Manmohan Singh government is totally responsible for the rout. In 1996, when the party lost power, the government was pilloried for not being able to take its reform policies to the people like Coca-Cola is sold in small towns. This time, most senior ministers would take the fall. Digvijaya Singh would claim that the results are a victory for communal forces supported by corporates. The spiel would be “the voters have faith that only the Gandhis can save the country from dictatorship. Congress has been defeated by dosh and not for its bad performance.

* If Congress gets between 110-120 seats: The war cry “Rahul has saved the party from total disaster and stopped Modi from acquiring a majority”, is ready. Sanjay Jha would go on TV saying, “The Indian people still believe in the Congress and Gandhi Parivar. We may be down but not out.” The ostrich council would assert “people have given us the mandate to contain crony capitalism and prevent the next government from dividing the country”. Septuagenarians would point out that the party has always bounced back after temporary setbacks. The Third Front and other non-BJP parties would face the flak from Jairam Ramesh for not joining the fight against communalism in Dalit and tribal villages. Congress would attack regional parties for letting anti-BJP votes become divided, protecting the interest of their leaders.

Worse would be the plight of the Left parties, which would get faces redder than their flags. Since AIADMK, TMC and BSP are likely to perform well, they would blame Congress for Modi’s victory. Campaign 2014 was one of the most expensive and abusive electoral battles ever seen. But the verdict will ignite a competitive and ridiculous kerfuffle among parties staking claims for success and passing the buck on failures.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Difference between Modi wave and Anti-Modi Sentiment is ..... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/April 27, 2014

Difference Between Modi Wave and Anti-Modi Sentiment is About 100 Seats

The Indian meteorological department is a whimsical prognosticator, failing to predict the weather—including storms—quite often. Fierce arguments break out over its efficacy, but with fewer loyalists than cynics. A similar battle is on over political forecasting, with fewer takers for contrarians. Fair weather birds have started migrating to safer climes, so that they can be sighted and counted, while prancing and preening in the changed weather. From boardrooms to newsrooms, Gujarat CM Narendra Modi is seen as manna from heaven; one who can redeem India’s miserable millions, including the richie rich, from despair. The media has already crowned Modi India’s next PM. Ironically, those who vilified him as a monster a decade ago are now scrambling to either sit next to him or bask in his shadow. Undoubtedly, Modi is one of the most successful and effective CMs who have delivered on many fronts without facing a single corruption charge in the last 12 years. Nevertheless, his marketing skills, coupled with schisms in the BJP, made him the most sought-after leader in the world’s largest democracy.

In the age of instant data creation and ready-to-offer opinion, political astrology has never been so easy. If there are 10 people in a drawing room, at least seven are willing to wager their last paisa on Modi as PM. Most of them hate the BJP, but they feel India deserves Modi. If one calls it a Modi Wave, another terms it an impending tsunami, which will uproot evil outfits like the Left, AAP and Congress. According to various opinion polls, self-appointed pollsters and academicians, Modi would gather a maximum of 280 and a minimum of 225 seats. No logic, however, is offered for this calculation. Even Atal Bihari Vajpayee, India’s most popular non-Congress leader ever, couldn’t win more than 183 seats for the BJP. Even in 1977, when the entire north and west India was united against the Congress, the rookie Janata Party couldn’t seize more than 285 seats. In 1989, V P Singh, riding the Bofors scandal, could muster just 140 seats; that too with the support of the BJP and Left. In 2004, the same oracles had written off the Congress, which made a triumphant comeback. Now, traumatised, it is paying a heavy price for non-governance and scams. Nor does it have regional satraps who can swing an election its way.

The anti-Congress vote is making Modi India’s most probable PM. Predicting seats, however, is more difficult that winning them. Since Modi appears to be contesting all the 400 BJP seats, the outcome will be decided by his popularity and acceptability. If there is a wave, it should be visible in all the seats and get converted into winning numbers. A close analysis of around 50 constituencies reveals that Modi is a premier brand name. The numerical difference between a Modi Wave and the anti-Modi sentiment is about 100 seats (see graphic). The BJP would undoubtedly emerge as the single largest party. But its capacity to form the government on its own is the real issue. The BJP is likely to snatch seats only from the Congress and not from any major regional party. It is in a direct fight with the Congress in less than 250 seats, out of which it already holds over 100, and the Congress around 150. In order to cross the 200-mark, the BJP has to gain at least 100 seats from the Congress, which could lose around 20 of its 116 current Lok Sabha seats. The BJP is in no position to take seats away from Mamata, Mayawati, Jayalalithaa, the Left and from the Northeast parties. This can happen only if Modi can break caste, community and regional barriers, which his promoters are confident about. If the Modi wave is able to demolish traditional voting patterns, the BJP alone could cross over 240 seats. But if Modi fails to successfully exploit anti-incumbency disgust and convert his personal popularity into votes, the BJP may not even cross its current record of 180 seats. If he fails to break Vajpayee’s record, he will be seen as leader with more hype than substance. His detractors and even some of his current companions would turn around and say the NDA lost in 2004 because of the Modi factor and has failed now because he converted the battle into Modi vs the Rest.

 prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Only way Messenger won't be shot.... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/ March 16, 2014

Only Way Messenger Won't be Shot is if the Message Delivered is Truthful

The message is increasingly becoming irrelevant. Now messengers are targets. Political parties will welcome any herald as long as the words brought are the ones that cheer. The political narrative of the General Elections has become a saga of ugly confrontation. Now leaders not only insist on choosing the messenger, they also dictate the message. Arvind Kejriwal, the progenitor of a novel politics of change, has set a precedent by announcing his intention to send all renitent media to jail. His anger may have been well placed. After all he is new to politics and has also been a media darling, unused to improbation. Most of us saw little wrong in his style or substance because he was fighting to engender a clean and transparent establishment. The press gave him maximum exposure before and after he joined politics. He and his party were cynosures of the media’s adoring eyes. Once Kejriwal stepped into active politics, each and every move came under the media’s unforgiving lens. As much as his questioning of pedestal pendragons were given prominence, queries raised about his party also got equal billing. The same yardsticks applied to probing his adversaries were used on his effervescently successful political outfit too.

But the gap between conduct of crusader Kejriwal and the rest of the political class seems be diminishing fast. As leaders acquire clout, acceptability and legitimacy, they start behaving like monarchs. They forget arrogance brings agony. Once Kejriwal became part of the system, his party adopted the same tactics as mainline parties of intimidating critics. His mission may be diametrically different, but his methods are the same as of his opponents. He perhaps believes that if other political outfits can dictate terms to the media, why can’t he with a clean track record. The media is now confronted with a situation in which the establishment has forged a coalition to defame, deter and decide its survival.

 

With the enormous growth of the media forcing it to adopt the perilous path of competitive journalism, parties have acquired the monopoly in deciding content of not only the electronic media but also of print. They now decide which anchor or club of reporters should be obliged. They also dictate kind of analysts to be invited for discussions. Should any channel exhibit defiance, they would spread the word that it should be boycotted. Moreover, parties have made it almost impossible for journalists to cover events unless the content provided by them is used without raising questions—a trend started by BJP’s PM candidate whose team understood the economic weakness of the Indian media. The BJP was the first to provide controlled feeds of rallies addressed by Modi to be telecast live for hours. For months, viewers were not informed that the ‘live’ footage was in reality provided by the party. When Rahul Gandhi learnt about the practice, a copycat Congress hired dedicated camera teams and asked the channels to carry footage the party provided. Even a regional leader like Mulayam Singh Yadav could persuade the electronic media to broadcast his rallies live using a captive system. But Kejriwal’s meetings received coverage without a penny being spent. Thus, by laying out their terms, political parties escaped the usual media scrutiny on their functioning.

Earlier, interviews of those who were herded to the rallies would be carried; empty spaces in the audience shown; and the focus would be on the hidden aspects of choreographed election events. Now the spotlight is only on the leader’s speech followed by a debate by a panel that includes collaborative columnists. Kejriwal perhaps has a point when he alleges that the media has become uncharitable to him because he is questioning the role of tycoons in the elections and the influence of big business on media coverage. For decades, the Indian media has been quite charitable towards India Inc. Barring a few exceptions, the media has abjured following corporate shenanigans and malpractices, in contrast to the vigour it brings to any dissection of the political system. But Kejriwal and supporters feel journalists have been partial towards select leaders; at the same time running a campaign against political parties.

Most newspapers and channels treat some leaders as sacrosanct compared to others even in the same party, and have unknowingly carried stories fed by them without questioning their intentions. According to media researchers, three individuals—Narendra Modi, Arvind Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi—have been given over 60 per cent prime time coverage by channels and over 50 per cent space meant for political news in the print media. According to a TV analyst, for the past seven months, Modi directly or indirectly has grabbed over 600 hours of TV space, against over 450 hours by Kejriwal and less than 300 hours by Rahul. Interestingly, the media has given extensive coverage to AAP’s second-rung leaders and a few BJP satraps while ignoring stalwarts like Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj and Nitin Gadkari.  In spite of getting such extensive publicity, none of them have spared the media. If Kejriwal has now chosen it as his latest target, the media must also share the blame. The Indian media has survived many sinister attacks on its independence. It will overcome many more if it places less emphasis on bytes, speeches, selective opinion, collusive debates and promoting class leaders at the cost of grassroots leaders. The messenger, too, would then survive the might of any political nemesis if the message delivered is truthful, irrespective of colours and contours.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

India's next PM likely ....Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/ March 09, 2014

India's Next PM Likely to Be Anointed Because of Deal-Makers, Not Popular Mandate

Ideology is dead. Long live personae. A myth waits to be exploded. Arrogant leaders will only devour ideologies. Self-proclaimed national satraps who avoid facing the electorate hide in opulent strategy rooms. Sons, daughters, sisters, sons-in-law and even cousins will decide poll strategies and candidates. Manifestos will be written not by party leaders but by ad agencies and unemployed intellectuals in search of an identity. Poll 2014 began with the lofty slogan on inclusiveness combined with decisive leadership. But as the brangle over seizing winnable seats get uglier, the elections could end up as a fight between feuding family members and rootless snobs who are determined to destroy the future of popular leaders and replace them with sycophants, or even superannuated lickspittle babus. Almost all political outfits—BJP, Congress and regional parties—are once again placing their confidence in glamour, networking and pedigree as the criteria to choose candidates.

For the past three months, BJP’s premier candidate has been spreading his carbon footprint all over the country, selling his idea of India. He has never missed an opportunity to unfold his action plan for India’s growth to make it one of the most prosperous global powers. At all his 70-odd rallies attended by over 30 million people, he spoke about Swaraj and providing clean candidates. But last week, his party was involved in turf battles over seat allocations. For even BJP insiders, the confrontation between the supporters of Murali Manohar Joshi and Narendra Modi over the Varanasi seat came as a shocker. For almost a week before the meeting was held in New Delhi, poster wars and verbal scrimmages had broken out in Varanasi between both factions. Joshi has won the seat twice with comfortable margins. His performance as the HRD Minister in the NDA government might have been controversial, but he is still the BJP’s most acceptable Brahmin face in Uttar Pradesh after Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The acrimony over Varanasi brings to spotlight BJP’s dilemma on finding a seat for its PM candidate. Undoubtedly, Modi is the most popular political leader in the country. His rising acceptability in large parts of India should make the party confident of his victory from any seat in the north. But both Modi and BJP feel he should contest from Uttar Pradesh, and that too from Varanasi. The idea of Modi standing from Lucknow was dropped because of the considerable number of minority votes in the constituency. But the fight over Varanasi is an indication that even PM candidates are looking for safe seats, betraying faith in their own achievements and capacity to win from any part of the country. Another BJP leader whose name has always been advertised as a possible PM candidate appears to be backing out again, along with other rootless leaders on the plea that they have to manage the polls, which they unsuccessfully did in 2009 and ensured that the party lost the election under Advani’s generalship. Moreover, some senior party leaders have also questioned the wisdom of replacing a senior candidate with Modi—who could easily win from one of the many other seats in Uttar Pradesh. If Joshi can be asked to shift to another constituency, why can’t Modi be asked to fight from any other seat, they ask.

The saga of an individual becoming more important than an ideology doesn’t end with Modi alone. The BJP is striking deals with varied leaders with dubious track records. Ignoring the views of prominent party palatines in Bihar and Karnataka, the BJP gave Ram Vilas Paswan the saffron handshake. It legitimised caste chieftains like former Karnataka CM B S Yeddyurappa only to show that Modi was attracting allies, even those who face criminal cases and are known party-hoppers. Elsewhere in the country, BJP hospodars have been engaging the progeny of even picayune regional political padrones to extend their support for Modi’s legions.

In the meantime, within the Congress, Rahul has been losing grip over the selection process. He has been told that individuals are more powerful than a dynasty’s nationwide allure. The selection of candidates like Ashok Chavan’s wife proves that the Gandhi cognomen is not powerful enough for the Congress to ensure the victory of its party candidates. Rahul has been vocal about dropping tainted candidates but is now left to accommodate some of the party’s most notorious leaders who could easily demolish its electoral prospects if not given tickets. His experiment of choosing 15 candidates through primaries seems to have backfired because some controversial candidates appear to command much more grassroots support. The situation is much worse in the household of Lalu Prasad, who leads the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar. He chose family members over other clean, acceptable leaders. He promises to fight Nitish Kumar’s non-performing government only by putting up his wife and daughter as Lok Sabha candidates from safe seats. In the east, even Mamata Banerjee, considered to be a down-to-earth leader who believes in simple living, has fallen victim to the glamour quotient by sponsoring political novices as candidates. She feels Kollywood glitterati, sports personalities and novelists are best suited to carry forward her alternative agenda for good governance. She has been picking up former corporate lobbyists, journalists and ad honchos to compensate for the absence of thought leaders. But none of her protégés are known to have revealed any knowledge about Mamatanomics and Didipolitik.

Most constituents of the failed Third Front depend more on individuals and relatives to boost their chances. Mulayam Singh Yadav has never given up his right to nominate half-a-dozen relatives as SP candidates in the coming elections. From Kashmir to Kanyakumari, India’s most powerful leaders are looking only for individuals who can add a few votes; track records be damned. Tragically, India is likely to get a PM whose anointment was managed through visible and invisible affidations with individuals and opportunistic parties and not because of a mandate from Maximum India.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

State Polls Verdicts will make.... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/December 01, 2013

State Polls Verdicts Will Make and Mar the Destinies of National Leaders like Modi

The heads may belong to different Caesars, but the Congress and BJP are two sides of the same mintage. That is, at least, the perception if not the reality. The ascendants and descendants of the electoral zodiac have erased the amorphous line that divides both national parties. Personality cults and sycophancy have always constituted the Congress party’s political charter. Its generalissimos are unfailingly unapologetic about expressing their unflinching loyalty to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. They remain convinced that while the Family’s Charisma seizes the laurels, losses in the battle of the ballots are entirely caused by the infirmities of the local leadership. This contagion of belief has now affected the BJP. With votes yet to be counted in the five states, leaders of both parties have, in advance, started apportioning the credit and blame for expected losses and wins. Leaders chased by TV channels for sound bytes are obsessed with offering morsels of banal opinion even if they have to dine on their words later. Last week, journalists quizzed senior BJP leaders about the possible consequences of the electoral verdicts in the party. While asked about whom the credit to victory or shame in defeat in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh should go to, a saffron luminary was emphatic in his response—it would be a victory of both national and local sentiments. The second rung leadership echoed his views, making it obvious that a section of the central leadership is unwilling to give full credit to the BJP’s chief ministerial candidates like Vasundhara Raje Scindia and Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Disremembering that the party has been projecting Chouhan as a model chief minister along with Narendra Modi, its wannabe leaders are competing with each other to give credit to the efficacy of the Modi as the Ace of Trumps. Modi acolytes have taken over the reins of the party, and have ensured that he gets more exposure in poll-bound states than local leaders. In Delhi, all posters, hoardings and TV promos carry much bigger visuals of Modi compared to CM candidate Harsh Vardhan’s. In contrast, the Congress, for the first time, has refrained from projecting the Gandhis or the Prime Minister as the face of their election offensive.

A divided and ambitious BJP leadership is playing a Sun Tzu-ian game of posturing and positioning. Diehard Modi followers feel that thanks to his magic, the party would win all the four states where the Gujarat Chief Minister has addressed over 50 meetings. Though the party had given a list of over 30 star campaigners to the Election Commission for these states, Modi topped the charts, followed by Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and Smriti Irani. In case the BJP storms home in all the four, the spoils of war would go to Modi and not the chief ministers. He would be declared the sole hero of the 2014 electoral semi-finals. Statistics would spell the numerical narrative on crowds drawn by Modi and his fiery speeches, as having generated a massive wave in the BJP’s favour to throw out incumbent Congress chief ministers. In case the BJP retains Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh while snatching Rajasthan away from its foe, the credit would go to Modi because it would be projected as a mandate for him for leading from the front. Internal opinion polls will be pulled out of the party’s escritoires to show that it was Modi who converted a lost cause in Chhattisgarh into an emphatic victory. If local party scuttlebutt is to be believed, the BJP plans to organise a special victory procession in Delhi, with Modi as the monarch. If the BJP is trounced in Delhi, however, the absence of a charismatic local leadership and a divided party leadership would be blamed. In case of a tie where the Congress and BJP win two states each, party logicians would dissemble that the absence of local organisational skills and the selection of unpopular candidates were the main reasons for defeat. Meanwhile, another section of the BJP feels that if the party fails to win Delhi and Chhattisgarh, Modi would be held responsible for the electoral Waterloo blaming his aggressive style and personality for polarising voters and scaring off fence-sitters. Since Modi is omnipresent on the battlefields of all the states, his acceptability and political allure are under greater scrutiny than that of his immediate rival, Rahul Gandhi.

The BJP has taken victory for granted while the Congress has confined itself to projecting the state elections as a mandate for the local leadership. Both Rahul and Sonia Gandhi have addressed less than half the number of Modi’s public rallies. They have realised that the Family may keep the party together, but is in no position to ensure victory, doomed by the pathetic performance of the UPA government led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The Congress High Command’s singular objective is to ensure that the Modi Mantra is extensively erased with the use of massive election funding and by bringing together all warring factions together. The Gandhis and their guild of loyalists feel that if the Congress wins two of the four states (excluding Mizoram), it would paralyse the Modi juggernaut and pave the way for UPA III. In the endgame, a score of 4-all would make Modi the invincible captain, but a 2-2 would be advantage Congress. Hence, as the die is perched at the edge of the precipice of prediction, the BJP has much more to lose than the Gandhis by making Modi its commander-in-chief. Elections verdicts will not decide the fate of local governments. But they will make and mar the destinies of national leaders like Modi.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Muscled with dosh from India Inc, ....Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/November 24, 2013

Muscled with dosh from India Inc, poll industry yields richest dividends in the game

Surviving in politics without black money is like Dionysius living without wine. As the electoral glove game of 2014 gets dirty and malodorous, not a single player involved is extemporising on cleansing electoral economics. Last week, when a portal carried a sting operation on some Aam Aadmi Party candidates, the outfit smelt political vengeance. Stung by AAP’s growing acceptability, its opponents struck back and accused it of double standards by using unaccounted money. In the sadistic political slanging match between parties, the role of money power in elections became toast. From PM Manmohan Singh to aspiring PM Narendra Modi, not one leader spoke about bringing financial transparency into election funding. Even the vociferous and sanctimonious Election Commission achieved Zen by the monotonous repetition of its decade-old representations to the government. An analysis of over 100 speeches made by the PM, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Modi and the CMs of election-bound states generates revealing revelations. The use of bad money coming from ugly sources wasn’t an issue. All parties are competing with one another in a decadent display of money power with choreographed rallies and fancy stages. According to an estimate by a corporate, Croesus, who ponies up poll funds to all leading parties, it would cost candidates in the coming state elections over Rs. 2,000 crore to fight for the 650 Assembly seats. While the upper spending limit set by EC for an Assembly election is just Rs. 35 lakh per candidate, it would cost each aspirant at least Rs. 1 lakh a day to cover his constituency during a month-long campaign. If the details of collections given to EC are any indication, it’s a record of parties being Shylockian with the truth. Together, all candidates spend over Rs. 25,000 crore every five years to win or lose. With the political-business nexus becoming stronger and blatantly visible, all talk of transparency in election spending is perceived as naff.

Since most parties have refused to come under the RTI Act, it is clear that they have more to hide than to reveal about the dubious sources of their funds. Not a single CM has made a feeble attempt to promise that his or her party would accept political donations only by cheque. Even the BJP, which 20 years ago was the first party to pass a resolution refusing to accept donations in cash, was the first to forget and violate its own resolve. Surprisingly, all political outfits become animadvert on the use of brobdingnagian amounts of money in politics only after they have won or lost an election. One doesn’t have to go far to seek the reasons for their sinister silence on finances. Even though India’s geographical boundaries remain unchanged since Independence, electoral expenses have risen manifold. Earlier, senior leaders, including CMs and officebearers, would cover the country by road and would rarely use flying machines to reach remote forested areas. Today, even a petty leader-come-yesterday takes pride in commandeering a helicopter or a chartered plane for election campaigns. Some of the so-called national leaders have refused to campaign because they were not allowed to jet set to various states in luxury. According to a civil aviation contractor, over 100 helicopters and small jet planes have been pressed into service in all the five election-bound states. The majority of the aircraft are owned by big business houses, which have acquired their flying toys by floating aviation companies. In fact, some leaders have made it a condition that they would not campaign unless they are provided an eight-seater twin-engine jet complete with five-star catering. Now the leaders are dictating terms to the parties. They decide their campaign schedule in such a way that they can return to their urban playgrounds for late night social rendezvous. They also seek caravans of luxury sedans for local poll peregrinations. A decade ago, our earthy leaders would draft publicity campaigns with catchy slogans, posters and graffiti. Now each party hires a top-end ad agency whose slogan writers are given the task to market the leaders who sign the contracts. Even district-level officers are demanding Innovas, Scorpios and Tata Safaris with unlimited gas and grub money before they even step out of their houses.

The complexion of the Indian election campaign is becoming more colourful and exhibitionistic than ever. It is not the crowd or quality of speeches that make an impact on voters. Leaders have convinced themselves that only the feel and look of the stage and the campaigner’s body language would them get them eyeballs and votes. With over 400 TV channels beaming news 24x7, all major parties have devised strategies to splurge on expensive media space to reach the maximum number of people. Both national parties are fully exploiting the shrinking top lines of news organisations, which are unable to spend massively on live coverage. Moreover, parties are hiring state-of-the-art technology along with experts to dictate the live coverage of their rallies. According to media circles, both the Congress and BJP have engaged IT companies to provide dedicated feeds to all TV companies so that the channels could save money. No wonder, viewers are being fed similar images rallies with the focus on the leaders and selected crowded spots. These cost a minimum of over Rs. 1 crore per rally, since the effort requires over a dozen cameras and heavy techquipment.

It is not only the crony capitalists who have benefited from the pace of economic reforms. It is the money, which they have generated through means fair and foul that has changed the way India engages in the battle of ballots. Hired marketers have replaced barefoot campaigners as ideological messengers. Muscled with dosh from India Inc, the election industry yields the richest dividends in the political game played in the shadows of the dark side of India’s economy.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Poll 2014 will decide fate ...Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/November 17, 2014

Poll 2014 will decide fate of opportunists who seek success in political currents

Shifts in the quicksands of loyalties and the forging of new ideological consociations are determined by the electoral pendulum. As various political outfits seek new partners and promoters, members of the Permanent Ruling Party of India (PRPI) are no lofty exceptions. It is not just a few chameleons of the political class which are changing their colours. Opportunism is much more visible among those who have acquired the art of jumping from one ship to another to avoid turbulence in business and social life. Depending on the nature of oscillations, foes become friends and villains are seen as emerging heroes. Old social encounters are retrieved from the archives of alliances to show and prove their ideological compatibility in sepia to the Caesars of tomorrow. Even friendly losers are liabilities and have to be dropped like hot potatoes.

Not long ago, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was the darling of the classes. So were Omar Abdullah and Akhilesh Singh Yadav. A couple of years before, even A Raja and Kanimozhi were coveted guests at chatterati soirees in Delhi and Chennai. Now they have disappeared from the mailing list of those who only host rising stars.

As various opinion polls reflect a clear swing in favour of Narendra Modi, his once-sworn enemies are desperately looking for platforms to bellow their allegiance to him. Participating in bellicose TV debates, writing columns and speaking at business forums in his favour are the most effective ways to join Modi-for-PM campaign. Earlier, he was the dreaded Decurion of divisiveness who had choreographed a pogrom in his state in 2002. For over a decade, they hounded Modi and sponsored and even supported every move to fix him legally, politically and socially.

From corporate caliphs to opinion operators, members of his new cortege see him as the only politician who can save India from disaster. Undoubtedly, Modi has a clean image. He has also performed well in Gujarat. But these aren’t new achievements. He was one of India’s best chief ministers for the past 10 years. Those who are now buzzing in the spindrift of the Modi juggernaut used to be uncomfortable with Modi’s class and character. For them Moditva was the face of a murderous ideology and Modi, a man without a mission. From New Delhi to New York, the rich and mighty were hell bent on banishing Modi and his brand of politics forever. They made him an international pariah who had to be avoided at all costs. For pseudo-secularists, NaMo was the most malignant threat to communal harmony. Now all of them, including the Obamas and the Camerons of the world, suddenly don’t find anything wrong with him. India has 30-odd chief ministers and some of them have done as well as Modi. Even Congress chief ministers like Bhupinder Singh Hooda have beaten Gujarat on many development indicators. BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan has an even better marksheet. But for both the BJP and Congress, NaMo is the only alternative claimant for the national throne. And that makes the power-hungry class of middlemen, image consultants and media mandarins who promote Modi and dump the rest. To be seen in Modi’s company or even in the periphery of his circle is a sure way to earn profits and retain social acceptability. Now even the secular and liberal brigade take schizophrenic pride in associating with Narendra Swayam Sewak Sangh (NSS) while hating RSS. The PRPI has converted its luxurious drawing rooms into war rooms to plan the launch of Modi as the new national brand. For them, 43-year-old Rahul Gandhi is history, and 63-year-old NaMo is the herald of a bright future.

For the past few weeks, Modi has become a god who can do no wrong. Earlier, his harmless barbs would invite pernicious barks from all over the country and even from abroad. Now, even the global rating agencies whose survival depends on a friendly government in India predict an easy victory for the BJP’s candidate. Those who would refuse to attend any social gathering where Modi was expected  now stand in the queue to sponsor his events and even his M-merchandise. Over 100 top industrialists, socialites, media personalities and Bollywood icons are conceiving events in which NaMo would be the chief guest. Modi is now becoming an icon in demand for inaugurating seminars and debates, laying foundation stones for new buildings and even becoming the stellar visitor at weddings.

What is baffling a few top Congress leaders is the new tendency on part of their traditional promoters to avoid their phone calls, even from Union ministers. While some ministers continue to have good relationships with industrialists, they are unable to make them support the party the way it was done in the past. Even the UPA regime’s beneficiaries are now taking pot shots at the senior Congress leadership and even the Prime Minister—the same cabal which would earlier organise national and international conclaves to promote the Gandhis and the once-powerful reformist Manmohan Singh and his team.

Interestingly, the PRPI doesn’t owe its allegiance to any doctrine of principles. It only flirts with individuals in various political parties depending upon their utility and class. They behave like modern slaves always looking for a new ruler in front of whom they could bow and scrape  for crumbs. They are the beneficiaries and products of India’s economic reform and crony capitalism. Since they have flourished not necessarily thanks to hard work and ability, but due to continuous state protection in the form of a favourable fiscal and administrative regime, they are always at the telescope peering out for those who would not only protect their new wealth but also help in fattening it. As their number has multiplied during the past two decades, they are in a position to influence the political charter and agenda. For them, conviction has always been a matter of convenience. Election 2014 will decide the fate of not only NaMo and RaGa but also of the avaricious floaters who seek success in the whimsical currents of politics.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla