The Sattvic effect 7 RCR has.... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard / August 23, 2015

The Sattvic Effect 7 RCR Has on Its Occupants When it Comes to Pak Must be Dispelled

Location, location, location. On the face of it, the very idea sounds ridiculous when it concerns PMs. But in a country where vastu, astrology and mythology determine the lifestyles and businesses of the majority, the numerology of 7 Race Course Road (RCR), the PM’s official residence, assumes an almost astral significance. Indo-Pak dialogue watchers now wonder if there is something arcane in the air of Race Course, which affects the thinking of its occupant regarding dialogue with Pakistan.

Spread over more than 12 acres of impeccably landscaped greenery, the RCR complex has become famous for exercising a sattvic effect on the personality of the premier. It becomes more pronounced while dealing with a hostile and untrustworthy neighbour like Pakistan. Today, India’s nationalist PM Narendra Modi, who rode to power by promising to teach terror-sponsor Pakistan an unforgettable lesson, is being perceived as a docile dove. During his campaign in 2014, he was spewing fire and brimstone. But soon after winning the Lok Sabha elections, he became the first PM to invite his Pakistani counterpart to his swearing-in ceremony. His tactical charm offensive with Pakistan didn’t end there. He walked the few extra miles by courting Nawaz Sharif at various international forums. But ever since he moved into 7 RCR, Modi hasn’t uttered a single hostile word against Pakistan or warned it of reprisal despite a record number of cross-border incursions. The Congress even attacked him for expressing sympathy for the Bangkok blast victims, while keeping schtum on the daily killings of Indian jawans and civilians along the LoC. Those who know the PM will not believe for a moment that he has abandoned his nationalistic moorings. So, is his government’s decision to engage—instead of isolating Pakistan as a terror-bitten pariah—influenced by some planetary effects on RCR?

Modi, however, is not the first Indian PM who has changed the approach of dealing with our treacherous 1947 offshoot. Some Indian soothsayers and vastu experts joke that the softness of Indian PMs for Pakistan started soon after Race Course became the PM’s official residence. Rajiv Gandhi was the first one to move into RCR. Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first premier, who lived in a sprawling bungalow on Teen Murti Road, may have lost the 1962 war, but he had followed a militarily aggressive policy against China and also wrested Goa from the Portuguese. Lal Bahadur Shastri, whose address was 10 Janpath, treated Pakistan as India’s biggest enemy and routed its army and almost captured Lahore in 1965. During Indira Gandhi’s 15-year stay at 1 Safdarjung Road, her policy was to treat Pakistan as a tremendous threat. Since it was a close US ally, she took a confrontationist attitude towards America too. Both Indira and Shastri did not hesitate to engage Pakistan in full-fledged wars.

But once Rajiv moved into RCR, the government’s attitude towards Pakistan changed. He went out of his way to wave the olive branch. He got along famously with Pakistan PM Benazir Bhutto, who became a frequent flyer to New Delhi. During the five years of his rule, Pakistan almost wrangled for itself the status of a Most Favoured Nation. The emotional distance between Lahore and Delhi was sort of bridged with a plethora of highfalutin cultural galas and lavish dinner parties in both cities. Rajiv didn’t know that his government’s excessive obsession with bettering relations with Pakistan had provided the ISI a golden opportunity to infiltrate J&K. By the time he was overthrown by voters, Pakistan had already created a powerful base in the Valley to destabilise India. Mars, the planet of aggression, seems to have moved away from the firmament over 7 RCR. The natural aggressive instinct of a Prime Minister to counter a hostile neighbour has been pacified. P V Narasimha Rao, after moving into 7 RCR, became a strong proponent of dialogue with Pakistan. His old friend Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who lived on Safdarjung Road, was always pushing for a confrontation with a terror-toxic Pakistan. It was Rao, who, in fact, consolidated Track II diplomacy to lay the ground rules for cross-border chitchat. But the planets changed when Vajpayee shifted his numerological pin code to RCR in 1998. And he fell in love with idea of a friendly Pakistan. He hopped onto a bus to Lahore in February 1999, but got Kargil in return gift. Later Vajpayee invited Gen. Pervez Musharraf to a summit in Agra. But the stars changed during his second innings, and the pacific atmosphere of Race Course prompted him to speak in peacenik patois. Did Vajpayee and his team fall under some Pak sorcerer’s spell and forget their earlier Pakistan doctrine? His successor Manmohan Singh (MaMo) was a dove, which simply dove into the peace pool at RCR. He was one of the most vocal and active votaries of Indo-Pak dialogue. So obsessed was he with striking a detente deal that at one stage, he was even toying with the idea of converting the LoC into an international border.

If MaMo was a dove, NaMo was supposed to be a hawk. Have the enchanted environs of RCR changed the way every Indian PM perceives Pakistan? Has the diplomatic necromancy of RCR acquired control over PM’s mind, since the place functions more like the PM’s office than his residence? South Block, which is still called the PMO, has become just an outhouse where a couple of bureaucrats hold random meetings and keep records. It also houses the external affairs ministry, which used to give important inputs to the PM’s diplomatic formulations. For the past 25 years, none of our PMs have spent more than a few hours a week at South Block. Rao even got a special lift installed, but one he never used. After Modi moved into 7 RCR and access became severely limited, he now gets to hear only the views of those who enjoy unrestricted entry. 7 RCR’s imperial aloofness from rest of the establishment has made it India’s most powerful parcel of premium political real estate. Modi has spent barely 15 months living there. Perhaps, the stars may change the prevailing Pak-bewitched mood and turbo-boost Modi’s mission and commitment to causes that define him as a no-nonsense nationalist. Then the contrarian and conflicting diplomatic gamma rays emanating from within the boundaries of 7 RCR may finally be dispelled by the influence of mangal in the PM’s house.


prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow  me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Battle 2014 is between visible Modi ...... Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/April 20, 2014

Battle 2014 is Between Visible Modi and Invisible Club of Other CMs 

May 16 will mark an inglorious rite of passage. The top-down economic model of an outgoing Prime Minister will fade into a lugubrious sunset. It could also, perhaps, signal the debut of a bottom-upwards political model in Indian parliamentary democracy. If opinion polls and media hype are proved right, India would have a PM who is not the nominee of any New Delhi cabal. For the first time, the power to choose a head of government appears to be shifting from Lutyen’s Delhi to state capitals. For the first time, no political party can stymie the anointment of a grassroots leader as India’s 15th Prime Minister. It is certain that either a sitting or a former CM would move into 7 Race Course Road. Though Narendra Modi is the only CM who has been officially declared as a PM candidate, others like J Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee and former CMs such as Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Chandrababu Naidu consider themselves credible candidates for the catbird seat. In the new political taxonomy, old is gold and experience is bliss. Instead of powerful party forums like parliamentary boards, it will be a formidable club of current and former CMs who would not only choose the next PM from among themselves, but will also dictate the colour and size of the next government.

Modi is not the only CM in the fray who aspires to be PM, but he is the only CM to contest without quitting his post. Twenty-nine other former CMs are seeking entry into Parliament from various states. Karnataka, with six former CMs in the ring, tops the list followed by five from Uttar Pradesh. Three are from Uttarakhand; two each from Bihar, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand. Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Northeast, Odisha and Madhya Pradesh have one each. Of these, there are three former women CMs. The JD(U) has chosen Ram Sundar Das, a 90-year old former CM from Bihar, to fight under its standard. Arvind Kejriwal, 49-year-old and 49-day CM of Delhi, is Modi’s challenger in Varanasi—he is not only the youngest but also has the least governing experience among former CMs. Sushma Swaraj had served in the same job for less than 100 days. In Karnataka, H D Devegowda and elder son H D Kumaraswamy have been CMs. Since Lalu Prasad is barred from contesting elections, his wife Rabari Devi—a former CM—is engaged in her maiden contest for the Saran Lok Sabha seat. The other former CMs in the fight are Purno Sangma, Babulal Marandi, Shibu Soren, Farooq Abdullah and Mulayam Singh Yadav.

The maximum number of this fancy fellowship belongs to the BJP with 10 former and sitting CMs. The Congress has put up eight former CMs. Undoubtedly, the former is totally committed to installing Modi as the next PM, but two former saffron CMs Rajnath Singh and Sushma are considered to be powerful alternatives in case Modi fails to make it. Others in this genre are Uma Bharti from Uttar Pradesh and Shanta Kumar from Himachal Pradesh. The BJP has also chosen three former CMs from one picayune state, Uttarakhand, to join the MODI4PM battle. In Himachal Pradesh too, the situation is the same. In Karnataka, Sadanand Gowda and B S Yeddyurappa are fighting to secure their seats. The beleaguered Congress has also chosen former CMs to bolster its electoral prospects. It has asked Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde and Ashok Chavan to contest from Maharashtra, Dharam Singh and Veerappa Moily from Karnataka, Amarinder Singh from Punjab, Giridhar Gomango from Odisha, Ghulam Nabi Azad from Jammu and Kashmir, and Shankersinh Vaghela from Gujarat.

It is not just mere coincidence that the two national parties have made their old and tested former state satraps pick up the poll gauntlet. Ironically, both outfits have been verbosely vehement about the role of new voters and young leaders, but when it came to selecting crucial candidates, over 70 per cent of party tickets were granted to leaders 65 years old and above. Most of the contesting former CMs are in their late 60s; some even in their 70s. Both Modi and Rahul are convinced that by fielding these venerables, their outfits would not only win their own seats but also ensure the victory of their favourites elsewhere. And their spheres of influence would come in useful in determining the formation of the next government at the Centre.

In case none of the contesting former CMs make it to South Block, one of the running CMs would claim the Prime Minister’s chair. Only two regional parties—the TMC and AIADMK—have formally announced the candidature of their respective liege ladies, Mamata and Jayalalithaa, because both leaders can capture over 30 seats each in their states. Prominent non-BJP and non-Congress leaders have already started informal power parleys with various current and former CMs, including Mulayam Singh and Mayawati. Their objective is not only to stop ‘Ab ki Baar, Modi Sarkar’, but also to promote a third alternative. Now it appears that Modi was aware of the combined power of the Chief Ministers’ Club. While unfolding his model of governance, Modi promised that he would constitute a council of chief ministers, which would take decisions in the national interest and protect the stakes of all states. But so far, he hasn’t found any traction as other CMs feel that their experience in dealing with PMs is superior. Almost all other former and current CMs, barring Naidu, have spurned Modi’s indirect overtures. In the next couple of weeks, it would be evident that the battle of 2014 is not between Modi and Rahul. It is not even between the Congress and BJP. It is between a highly visible Chief Minister like Modi and a wily, invisible club of other chief ministers. Who will make it to New Delhi? The jury is still out.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla
 

Bread and Butter have expiry dateds ....... Power & Politics/The New Indian Express/April 12, 2014

Bread and Butter Have Expiry Dates, But Divide and Rule is Forever

It’s a battle between two paladins belonging to two political potentates jousting bitterly to capture the throne room in 7 Race Course Road. Azam Khan and Amit Shah have nothing in common by way of ideology, culture or governance. Amit is known as the Hanuman of BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Damodar Bhai Modi. Azam is famous for doing malevolent communal combat on behalf of Netaji Mulayam Singh Yadav. Both Modi and Mulayam have given complete freedom of expression to their cohorts to the extent that both liegemen are able to alter national political discourse and dictate the agenda for Elections 2014. If there are individuals who can define and rewrite ideologies, there are others who can erase them with equal aplomb.

Azam and Amit have come to symbolise the politics of hate and revenge. While the latter is facing legal scrutiny for his alleged role in the Gujarat riots, Azam is under investigation for making communal remarks against the Indian Army. Ironically, both have held preponderous positions in party and government. It is not a coincidence that neither of the two is known for providing good governance. Their expertise lies in the art of intimidation using all available instruments of power and persuasion. With Azam and Amit engaged in a combat of epithets, Uttar Pradesh is the only state in which elegies for issues like development and good governance are already being composed. Other parties are parroting the divisive discourse discharged by the differing duo by offering a slightly refined version of their minatory monologues, which are dividing voters along communal lines. Two weeks ago, Akhilesh Yadav, perhaps India’s youngest CM, was holding forth on technology, highways, metro rail and hospitals as his agenda for governance. All the political parties hawked women empowerment, health, education, law and order and child welfare as the main attractions of their manifesto bazaar. But A&A brought the focus back on themselves and delegated their leaders into mere poster boys.

For the past two weeks, A&A have successfully altered the contours of political debate. As Uttar Pradesh with 80 seats would decide the nature of next government, the divisive duo is leaving little to chance to polarise the electorate. As Amit’s electoral road map upholds, it is evident that he was chosen not to just set up and revive a highly divided and demoralised BJP in UP, but also to convert the battle ground into They vs Us. From the choice of candidates to the selection of talking points, Amit has successfully ensured that the UP elections be fought using emotional issues riding the hardcore Hindutva gestalt. According to party insiders, he played a key role in persuading Modi to fight from Varanasi, the undeclared capital of hardcore Hindutva. It would be for the first time that an outsider—and that too a backward caste individual like Modi—would be contesting from a Brahmin-dominated constituency. After touring the state for over a month and confabulating with various middle-level BJP satraps, Amit convinced his leadership, including Modi, that UP could be won only if the party is able to revive the Hindutva forces, which gave it 58 seats in 1999 and brought the BJP to power in the state in 1992. Amit had done his homework well. Even in 1967, the Jan Sangh won over 90 seats in UP because of the police firing against Hindu saints who were protesting against cow slaughter in Parliament in 1966. BJP has always performed miserably in UP whenever it didn’t play up core issues like Ram Mandir, Uniform Civil Code etc.

For Amit, Muzzafarnagar came as a Ram-sent opportunity to reap a huge electoral harvest. A fiery orator and a master strategist, last year’s riot was the glue he used to unite Hindutva forces. Read the subtext of his speech carefully, which was carried by both the electronic and print media. He told party workers, “The election is about voting out the government that protects and gives compensation to those who killed Jats,” and used the words badla (revenge) and izzat (honour), perhaps deliberately. He followed it up with yet another provocative remark—“By voting for Modi, you will be doing two things. You will bring him to the Centre and you will uproot Mullah Mulayam from Lucknow.”

If Amit was determined to unite his hardcore base, how could Azam drag his feet? After all, he was given the mandate to ensure that minorities came out in full force to vote for his party. He even invoked minority supremacy in the Army’s role in the Kargil war. Of course, it was for the first time that a minority leader was asserting that Muslims were as powerfully nationalist as the saffron brigade. Claimed Azam: “Those who fought in Kargil weren’t Hindu soldiers. In fact, the ones who fought for our victory were Muslim soldiers.”

Azam and Amit wouldn’t have taken to confrontationist communal posturing unless their promoters gave them the nod to change the direction of political engagement. During the past few weeks, there has been a competitive bid by leaders of almost all the parties to acquire Muslims leaders as magic mascots at any cost. If Modi and his brigade were displaying retired Muslim civil servants and disgruntled Muslim leaders from Bihar to dispel the widely believed perception about Modi’s unacceptability among the minorities, Congress president Sonia Gandhi invited Imam Bukhari to her home to seek his support for her party. Interestingly, the Election Commission received more complaints from various political parties on religion being used to influence voters than it did in the last two elections. The maximum numbers were from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. It is clear that over 250 million voters in 120 seats of both heartland states were being wooed not to make them more prosperous but to preserve their religious identity as vote blocs. For Indian politicians, issues like bread and butter have expiry dates. But what lives forever is the policy of divide and rule. The next few weeks will see more and more Azams and Amits who will excoriate and dominate the political markets.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

India's next PM likely ....Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/ March 09, 2014

India's Next PM Likely to Be Anointed Because of Deal-Makers, Not Popular Mandate

Ideology is dead. Long live personae. A myth waits to be exploded. Arrogant leaders will only devour ideologies. Self-proclaimed national satraps who avoid facing the electorate hide in opulent strategy rooms. Sons, daughters, sisters, sons-in-law and even cousins will decide poll strategies and candidates. Manifestos will be written not by party leaders but by ad agencies and unemployed intellectuals in search of an identity. Poll 2014 began with the lofty slogan on inclusiveness combined with decisive leadership. But as the brangle over seizing winnable seats get uglier, the elections could end up as a fight between feuding family members and rootless snobs who are determined to destroy the future of popular leaders and replace them with sycophants, or even superannuated lickspittle babus. Almost all political outfits—BJP, Congress and regional parties—are once again placing their confidence in glamour, networking and pedigree as the criteria to choose candidates.

For the past three months, BJP’s premier candidate has been spreading his carbon footprint all over the country, selling his idea of India. He has never missed an opportunity to unfold his action plan for India’s growth to make it one of the most prosperous global powers. At all his 70-odd rallies attended by over 30 million people, he spoke about Swaraj and providing clean candidates. But last week, his party was involved in turf battles over seat allocations. For even BJP insiders, the confrontation between the supporters of Murali Manohar Joshi and Narendra Modi over the Varanasi seat came as a shocker. For almost a week before the meeting was held in New Delhi, poster wars and verbal scrimmages had broken out in Varanasi between both factions. Joshi has won the seat twice with comfortable margins. His performance as the HRD Minister in the NDA government might have been controversial, but he is still the BJP’s most acceptable Brahmin face in Uttar Pradesh after Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The acrimony over Varanasi brings to spotlight BJP’s dilemma on finding a seat for its PM candidate. Undoubtedly, Modi is the most popular political leader in the country. His rising acceptability in large parts of India should make the party confident of his victory from any seat in the north. But both Modi and BJP feel he should contest from Uttar Pradesh, and that too from Varanasi. The idea of Modi standing from Lucknow was dropped because of the considerable number of minority votes in the constituency. But the fight over Varanasi is an indication that even PM candidates are looking for safe seats, betraying faith in their own achievements and capacity to win from any part of the country. Another BJP leader whose name has always been advertised as a possible PM candidate appears to be backing out again, along with other rootless leaders on the plea that they have to manage the polls, which they unsuccessfully did in 2009 and ensured that the party lost the election under Advani’s generalship. Moreover, some senior party leaders have also questioned the wisdom of replacing a senior candidate with Modi—who could easily win from one of the many other seats in Uttar Pradesh. If Joshi can be asked to shift to another constituency, why can’t Modi be asked to fight from any other seat, they ask.

The saga of an individual becoming more important than an ideology doesn’t end with Modi alone. The BJP is striking deals with varied leaders with dubious track records. Ignoring the views of prominent party palatines in Bihar and Karnataka, the BJP gave Ram Vilas Paswan the saffron handshake. It legitimised caste chieftains like former Karnataka CM B S Yeddyurappa only to show that Modi was attracting allies, even those who face criminal cases and are known party-hoppers. Elsewhere in the country, BJP hospodars have been engaging the progeny of even picayune regional political padrones to extend their support for Modi’s legions.

In the meantime, within the Congress, Rahul has been losing grip over the selection process. He has been told that individuals are more powerful than a dynasty’s nationwide allure. The selection of candidates like Ashok Chavan’s wife proves that the Gandhi cognomen is not powerful enough for the Congress to ensure the victory of its party candidates. Rahul has been vocal about dropping tainted candidates but is now left to accommodate some of the party’s most notorious leaders who could easily demolish its electoral prospects if not given tickets. His experiment of choosing 15 candidates through primaries seems to have backfired because some controversial candidates appear to command much more grassroots support. The situation is much worse in the household of Lalu Prasad, who leads the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar. He chose family members over other clean, acceptable leaders. He promises to fight Nitish Kumar’s non-performing government only by putting up his wife and daughter as Lok Sabha candidates from safe seats. In the east, even Mamata Banerjee, considered to be a down-to-earth leader who believes in simple living, has fallen victim to the glamour quotient by sponsoring political novices as candidates. She feels Kollywood glitterati, sports personalities and novelists are best suited to carry forward her alternative agenda for good governance. She has been picking up former corporate lobbyists, journalists and ad honchos to compensate for the absence of thought leaders. But none of her protégés are known to have revealed any knowledge about Mamatanomics and Didipolitik.

Most constituents of the failed Third Front depend more on individuals and relatives to boost their chances. Mulayam Singh Yadav has never given up his right to nominate half-a-dozen relatives as SP candidates in the coming elections. From Kashmir to Kanyakumari, India’s most powerful leaders are looking only for individuals who can add a few votes; track records be damned. Tragically, India is likely to get a PM whose anointment was managed through visible and invisible affidations with individuals and opportunistic parties and not because of a mandate from Maximum India.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

In Race to 7 RCR..... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ March 02, 2014

In Race to 7 RCR, Maximum Leaders Depend on Minimum Fuglemen to Succeed 

 

The trend of corporate mergers, acquisitions and strategic alliances are experiencing a sunset moment. Instead, the season for political mergers and acquisitions has opened. Such opportunistic deals are occuping primetime news hours more than corporate alliances of the past. With market leaders like BJP and Congress exhibiting zetetic zeal in acquiring new caste and community markets, the price of picayune political outfits have hit the roof. The market capitalisation of sinking political organisations has exceeded their net worth, thanks to massive demand from national parties. Prominent brand masters like Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi are desperately seeking alliances to either retain their market share or expand it by gobbling up small players. Neither national party holds more than 40 per cent of the electorate market. In spite of pan-India visibility, neither has a significant presence in states that send over 250 MPs to Lok Sabha. Even some regional parties are scouting for trophies as window displays to attract fence-sitters. As the countdown to battle 2014 begins, it has dawned on all that battles of the ballot cannot be won on banal ideological and individual-driven charters. The new mantra to win the Lok Sabha polls seems to be ‘Forget Development, Welcome the Caste and Community Coalition’.

After acting pricey, both Rahul and Modi have realised that any dream of capturing 7 RCR will remain a mirage unless regional satraps and caste/community leaders join them in selling their brands. Surprisingly, BJP initiated the first move. It was under the illusion that Modi will move the market like Dhoni, Bachchan, Salman or Priyanka do for brands they promote. After addressing 70-odd rallies from Kerala to Tripura, Modi and his sponsors seem to have realised that he alone is not enough to convert visible popularity into votes. BJP needed local leaders and vote mobilisers to go that extra mile to the booth. After having failed to win over any of the big leaders such as Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik, Mayawati, Jayalalithaa and Chandrababu Naidu, BJP decided wooing failed caste leaders is the only option to erase impression that the party isn’t able to garner new allies. The total worth of BJP’s new acquisitions and mergers is unlikely to create a winning tally. For the past four months, it has hawked Modi as the panacea for all ills that plague Indian politics and economics. Through expensive tech campaigns, Modi was projected as the leader who would pull India out of a mess. The feedback from huge rallies and small groups of targeted audiences had given Modi and sponsors the impression that BJP and its PM candidate don’t need alliances. Rajnath Singh told me in an interview that NDA needs no allies to form a government because Modi’s leadership was enough. The next day, however, he and his messengers were striking deals with all and sundry. Nitin Gadkari wooed Dalit leader Ramdas Athawale to join the NDA bandwagon. For the sake of a fading Dalit satrap, the party denied Rajya Sabha re-nominations to dedicated leaders. The best joke of all was the induction of Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar, which the BJP claims to be its new bastion. The two leaders collectively do not count for more than 4 per cent of the total vote. In Tamil Nadu, BJP has been panting to get Vanniar caste-dominated PMK to join NDA, ignoring pending criminal cases. It brought back former Karnataka chief minister B S Yeddyurappa to regain Lingayat votes. The clear fiat to BJP’s state leaders is to spot fringe parties to be shanghaied to NDA.

Both national parties have used corporate and NGO interlocutors to bring SP, TMC, AIADMK, BJD and TDP closer, but none of the regional outfits have bothered to return calls. Instead, Mulayam Singh Yadav took the lead in corralling most of the non-national parties on one platform to forge a pre-poll alliance. None of them are in competition in any state. It is only the Left, which stands to gain if such an alliance is midwifed because it would then get seats in states where it lacks a chance. Since forward and dominant castes in the big states show no interest in either national party, BJP is randomly picking up leaders known not for their achievements but for their caste or symbolic value. The party readmitted backward class leader Kalyan Singh not for his track record but considering his caste pull. It is an irony that the party which began its campaign as one that stood for decisive leadership and good governance is now chasing tainted and failed leaders.

Meanwhile, Congress and its supreme leaders don’t mind giving tickets to those whose reputations are sullied by judicial action and investigation. They represent only caste and community and are not responsible for transparent governance. BJP to prove its USP, has embraced superannuated controversial civil, police and army officers. If those who do not honour democracy and transparency become prominent instruments of a party’s growing acceptability, it reflects badly on its popular commitment. In the past few months, over half-a-dozen retired babus have joined the party. All the state mongers are beneficiaries of UPA’s liberal munificence and even got plum postings. Unlike AAP, which is recruiting and co-opting those who have rebelled against the system, BJP and Congress prefer the brotherhood of compromisers and opportunists. While the former nets fair weather birds, the latter has so far failed to acquire new parties or even discredited caste and community leaders. The trend is clear. The maximum leaders now depend on minimum fuglemen to succeed.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

In Singles Match for TOP JOB ..... Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/February 02, 2014

In Singles Match for Top Job, Only Mixed Doubles Will Decide Government Formation

Who will become the Prime Minister in May 2014? No prospective aspirant has an answer. But one thing is indubitable. Only the singles at the helm of states will anoint one among them as Indian democracy’s next Moghul. If opinion polls and drawing room gossip are any indications, only a single by status will become India’s Prime Minister. If one goes by the list of probables and others who would matter in the finals, not a single married politician’s name figures, even as a dark horse. The BJP was the first party to announce NaMo, a single man, as its choice for the top job. It was for the second time that the saffron party opted for a singular single after Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Other singles such as West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar (widower) and even BSP President Mayawati are projected as likely occupants of 7 Race Course Road. Finally, the 120-year-old Congress party has also chosen its young, single inheritor Rahul Gandhi to pick up the gauntlet on its behalf. Indians are looking for single saviours among its politicians. Since over 60 per cent of voters are single, the names of leaders reflect their natural choice. Earlier, too, three other singles—Jayalalithaa, Mamata and Naveen Patnaik—decided the fate of India’s first single PM. While they were instrumental in Vajpayee being elected the PM, they were equally responsible for his fall.

Both the BJP and Congress are convinced that their single leaders will make it to South Block’s best-appointed room. But as the line from Macbeth goes “to make assurance doubly sure”, both parties are busy wooing other singles to support their bachelor leaders. There is no doubt that the combination of singles is awesome. Opinion polls and surveys project that they will collectively or individually dictate the choice and character of the next government in Delhi. The arithmetic is arresting: between the four of them, they are likely to garner around 130 seats. Modi-led NDA is expected to get a maximum of 210 seats. Unless two of the four singles with over 50 seats support Modi, he can’t become the PM even if his charisma earns the BJP the largest single party tag. Only a mixed doubles will decide the game of government formation. The BJP and its supporters are heavily dependent on Jayalalithaa to bail them out. The AIADMK legion has already announced that it would like to see its leader installed in 7 RCR. Last year, TMC had announced that Mamata cannot be ruled out as India’s supreme ruler. If Modi can’t achieve his mission, Rahul would have to turn to the same singles for escorting him to the swearing in at Raisina Hill. This can happen only if the Congress wins enough seats to attract an ally after the election. Surprisingly, Rahul and Modi may have caught the imagination of new and young voters to a certain extent, but both have miserably failed to charm the powerful singletons who control the keys to the PM’s office. Both contenders have hardly been in direct touch with members of the singles club. Barring a few photo-ops that NaMo got with Jayalalithaa, the two leaders have not been seen even making political overtures to other singles together. According to political analysts, it is for the first time in India’s democratic politics that personal egos and their vice-like grip over their respective organisations has made Indian political calculations unstable and unpredictable. With Mamata, Mayawati, Jayalalithaa and Patnaik keeping their cards close to their chests, Indian chatterati and foreign market manipulators are hedging their bets on the contours of the future dispensation.

The problem with foreign-educated and FII-funded experts is that they have failed to understand the political mindset of those who have risen from the grassroots, or through massive and traumatic inner party struggles, or simply nurtured in an elite-dominated social hierarchy. Mayawati and Mamata were ignored by the highly class and pedigree-conscious establishment. The two singles were the original architects of the aam aadmi paradigm, raising their outfits from scratch to acquire the status of queen or kingmaker. Jayalalithaa was humiliated by rootless satraps of her party after MGR’s death. She revived the AIADMK through sheer hard work and ideological differentiation. Only Patnaik entered politics with a degree and pedigree. But he learnt faster than his father Biju Patnaik and decimated his opponents with beguiling charisma. All of them are leaders of the parties they created themselves, which sustained their acceptability. While there is no ideological commonality between these four singles, each has his or her own political priorities and views on the political Carte du Tendre and would like to dictate not only the choice of the next PM, but the agenda for governance as well. At the moment, they have not been in dialogue with one another about any future coalition. But they have made it clear that they would like to instal a non-NDA and non-Congress government at the Centre. But consistency has never been a politician’s virtue.

In contrast to self-made regional satraps, both Modi and Rahul have inherited huge organisational support from their respective parties. Modi has added value to BJP with his outstanding performance as Gujarat chief minister. But without the BJP he may not get even one-fourth of the votes, which the party is capable of winning. Rahul’s situation is a little better as the Congress sans a Gandhi is an old Ambassador car without fuel. But a single difference—neither leader possesses the disarming charm or the smiling silence of Atal Bihari Vajpayee to win friends and influence enemies. Even Vajpayee was ejected from his office by the force of these singles.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Given their political DNA, to segue RaGa and NaMo's..... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/January 26, 2014

Given Their Political DNA, to Segue RaGa and NaMo's 'I' into 'We' Will be a Tall Order

The slogan is impressive in its modesty. It seeks votes by invoking the team spirit. This week, all newspapers carried a Congress advertisement with the slogan, “Main Nahi, Hum (Not Me, but We)” with a picture of Rahul Gandhi as the fugleman in front of a group of young voters from all communities. It was a straight lift from a NaMo Chintan Shivir of 2011. Perhaps the ad agency, which planned RaGa’s high-voltage promotional blitz, failed to do its homework. But the sheer similarity between the thinking of the two prime ministerial aspirants underlined their compulsion to project themselves as the sole team leaders. Both have been perceived as loners who inhabit vertiginous eyries perched high above anyone who garners votes and mobilises public opinion. Both extol the virtues of ‘We’ but practice the ‘I’ mantra. Of late, NaMo has been a mixed mass metaphor, grandiloquent in his humility, choosing to extol his modest background and OBC caste status than his impressive track record as Gujarat chief minister. Yet, hardly anyone knows the names of Team Modi members. His team begins with NaMo and ends with NaMo. RaGa is no different. He has confined himself to a fortress-like residence populated by unknown and inexperienced techies from affluent families, whose association with the reality of politics is anything but accidental. In Ahmedabad too, BJP officebearers and even ministers are rarely allowed entry to Modi’s well-guarded house.

It’s the ‘I’ in these individuals which dominates political discourse, narrative and choice of compadres. Both aspire to become the Prime Minister of a billion-strong India but ignore those who could facilitate their victory better. All promotional material are dominated by their pictures, sans those who have also achieved success and a reputation through performance. The BJP owes its over half-a-dozen governments to the sterling reputation of charismatic chief ministers and state party chiefs. It would have been nowhere in the reckoning if leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje Scindia, Raman Singh, Manohar Parikkar, Sushil Kumar Modi, Harsh Vardhan, Rajnath Singh et al had not displayed their organisational and administrative acumen. Yet, none of them find a place of prominence in Modi’s election strategy, which has been left to marketing agencies and a few others. If Modi is today the country’s most favoured PM candidate, it has much to do with the good governance provided by other BJP chief ministers. Their popularity drives the all-circumjacent popular embrace of Modi. Except calling them for customary meetings of party forums, none of the chief ministers are involved in planning Battle 2014. Even at the recently held National Executive Council Meeting in Delhi, none of them were asked to move any resolution. CMs like Chouhan and Parrikar have performed much better than Modi in many areas. If Modi means Hum (We) as his mantra, all election material would have carried a combined picture of the CMs. Imagine the impact it would have on voters, if Modi, in the company of a phalanx of saffron heroes, sought the vote in the name of all BJP CMs and showed India that he could lead a team of movers and shakers with proven track records. The BJP ranks have many highly successful former ministers like Arun Shourie and Yashwant Sinha, but both are ignored by the party. The party’s decision-making bodies are filled with either geriatrics or honchos who have never won an election, let alone lead a state unit to victory. The seniority or financial clout of an individual in the BJP gets priority over merit and the ability to win an election. They are the ones who claim to be the invisible part of Team ‘Hum’.

The situation in the Congress is worse. It has the largest attroupement of stellar CMs and Cabinet ministers, but they are not portrayed as part of the ‘We’ team which Rahul swears by. Chief ministers like Oommen Chandy, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Siddaramaiah and Tarun Gogoi are known for their responsive governance and better delivery mechanisms on many parameters than their BJP counterparts. They also know how to win an election and carry their teams along. Chandy, for example, leads a precarious coalition government in Kerala, which could collapse if just two MLAs choose to defect. He has been able to keep UDF allies and warring Congress factions together. However, when it came to giving the CMs due credit at the recently held AICC session in New Delhi, the Congress party focused only on Rahul. Most of the present Congress CMs have got rave reviews about their performance by various government and non-government agencies like the Planning Commission and Reserve Bank of India. While the BJP and other parties don’t lose an opportunity to assail the Congress, the ruling party has never exploited the success of its state governments. The Congress rarely projects its CMs as the ones who have fulfilled most of the party promises in the state elections. Most of them are only used for fundraising and not for mobilisation of voters and workers. They are summoned to New Delhi as vassals to be given orders or to be gibbeted for the party’s bad performance in their states. But they are never patted on the back for keeping the party’s pennant flying in their states. Rahul appears to be in a hurry to change the Congress culture of sycophancy. But he is still sticking to the age-old Congress system of stateless and rootless leaders deciding the fate of popular state leaders. He has taken charge but hasn’t yet been able to jettison those who have lost their relevance and utility in the party. As the stopwatch for the Lok Sabha elections unwinds in an inexorable cycle of political karma, both NaMo and RaGa suffer from an existential dilemma. How to segue ‘I’ into ‘We’? Keeping in view their political DNA, it’s a tall order. As Othello said, “to beguile many, but be beguiled by one”, but both politicians are beguiled only by the idea of themselves.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Teekhi Baat with Sukhbir Singh Badal/IBN7/February 09, 2013

‘Modi has done an excellent job, he’s proved himself’

Punjab Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal speaks on governance and issues concerning Punjab, Badal Senior, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate and a host of other issues during Teekhi Baat on IBN7. Excerpts:

Congratulations for winning the Delhi Sikh Gurudwara Management Committee elections.

Thank you.

Will it affect politics in Delhi?

It will, in the next Assembly and Parliament elections, due to the community vote.

The Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) will become more powerful.

It will make no difference to our alliance with the BJP, because we are not into bargaining.

Won’t you ask for more seats?

We never do give-and-take politics.

Badal saab is slowly taking the backseat and you are coming forward.

This is an impression. Badal saab is in the full grip of the government. There are departments which I handle.

All important departments are with you.

No, not all of them. Only  Home and Reforms.

In Punjab, the impression is that you are the real chief minister.

This is a media-created. I am the president of the party.

But he is reporting to you.

No, he is not reporting to me. He is our patron-in-chief.

Like at the Centre, Sardar Manmohan Singh reports to Sonia Gandhi.

Not here. Here, everybody reports to him, I am a minister under him.

Your inclusion in the NDA is symbolic.

It is not symbolic. We are not in the prime ministerial race. We don’t have the numbers, so it is foolish to start thinking like that. Ours is a small state. As a small state, we are part of the NDA, because of our policies.

You will never go with the Congress. Hence, the current condition of the BJP will affect you.

We don’t interfere in any party’s internal matters.

The JD(U) interferes every day. They say the BJP should declare its prime ministerial candidate. Your view?

This is BJP’s internal matter. We will support the person who the BJP chooses.

You have no objection to any candidate?

No, we have no objection.

Even if it’s Modi, you will have no objection?

I said, let them choose anybody, we are with the BJP.

It means you feel that the prime minister should be from the BJP?

Should be, because that is the biggest party (in the NDA). Hence it is necessary for stability too.

But people say, the BJP’s candidate may not be acceptable to some.

We have no problem.

There is talk surrounding Modi. What do you think?

I think, he has done an excellent job as the chief minister. Not only me, but everybody is talking about his performance.

In the BJP, even Shivraj Singh Chauhan has also proved himself. But is Modi a prime minister material?

I cannot comment on who is prime minister material.

In the NDA, do you find Modi the most suitable?

I will not comment. What you want me to say, I won’t say it. Our party’s stand is very clear, let BJP choose any person.

But how would NDA government be formed?

Even in Uttar Pradesh the perception is that people want change. They know NDA is the best alternative. BJP will gain hugely there.

Where else?

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra.

How many seats will the BJP win?

On their own, the BJP can win over 200 seats.

And after winning over 200 seats  they will make Modi the PM?

Let them make whoever they want to, we are with them.

You will see a BJP prime minister in 2014?

Hundred per cent.

The Great Reckoning ../Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/February 03, 2013

The great reckoning is in 2014 but next Prime Minister will emerge this year

Numerically 2013 precedes 2014. Normally, the past casts its shadows over the future. But such is the nature of the frivolous discourse of new politics and our opinion-makers that the present is ignored to build castles on the sands of the future. From individuals to institutions, many are spending sleepless nights debating the name and nature of the knight who would save India. They conveniently forget that Number 13 is considered an inauspicious number. It can’t make fortunes. But it can definitely mar and demolish the dreams of many powerful leaders. It is 2013 that will decide the contours of Indian politics in 2014. It will also seal the fate of many chief ministers and aspirants for the prime ministership of India.

The parties or personalities that explode the negative myth of 13 will not only determine the rulers of 2014, but will also decide the colour of coalition politics. While the media and some self-appointed claimants for the post of the prime minister of India are indulging in shadow-boxing, their cadres and middle-level leaders are concerned about the fate of their respective parties and that of local leaders who face state elections that begin from Tripura next month. In addition, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh,  Rajasthan, Delhi, Jharkhand and Meghalaya will all elect new Assemblies before the end of the year. It is the verdict in these states that will decide the future politics of not only the national and regional parties but also of some prominent leaders who aspire or are in the race for the top job in South Block. These elections may even throw up new candidates for the prime ministership. In the cacophony of Rahul versus Modi is drowned the complex and explosive nature of the fight which will see regional leaders warring for a bigger national role. The BJP rules Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The Congress runs Rajasthan and Delhi. If Shivraj Singh Chouhan is able to win his state for the third time for the BJP, the party may add his name to the list of possible leaders to lead the BJP at the Centre. The fight may become messier if Vasundhara Raje also delivers in Rajasthan and becomes the BJP’s second secular female face besides Sushma Swaraj, the current Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha. Both Chouhan and Raje have never displayed their national ambitions but they have much more acceptability not only within the party but also with NDA’s allies. Leaders like Chouhan, Raje and Raman Singh will play a dominant role if they win their state elections—between them, they control the outcome of 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. The party won a little less than half the Lok Sabha seats in these states in 2009. Even in Jharkhand and Karnataka, where the party won 28 out of 42 LS seats, the local leadership will have a major say if they are able to retain the same number of seats in their Assemblies. If the BJP is able to retain its states and win Delhi, Rajnath Singh’s promoters are bound to project him as the natural choice for PM. During his earlier term, the BJP won most of the state elections but lost the Lok Sabha elections. A victory in 2013 will also make the BJP less untouchable with the fence-sitters jumping on to the saffron ship, which is currently sailing in rough waters.

If the future of the current BJP leadership is linked with its performance in 2013, such is the case for Rahul Gandhi as well. Since there is no other visible contender for the prime ministership in the Congress, the electoral verdict of 2013 will also decide whether the vice-president of a political party will be elevated to the post of the prime minister of a country of over 1.2 billion people. So far, Rahul hasn’t been able to deliver much in any Assembly election. His aggressive forays into caste-based north Indian politics failed to pay dividends. The Congress lost badly in Bihar, Gujarat, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. It was able to wrest power from the BJP in Himachal and Uttarakhand, and may do it Karnataka as well. But a loss in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh or even Chhattisgarh may raise many questions about Rahul’s ability win an election for his party. Some of his close aides are resigned to the idea of sitting in the Opposition for five years, and rebuilding the party from scratch. Rahul has not shown any hurry to demolish the old order in the 129-year-old party, and has refrained from any direct interference in the selection of either the state-level candidates or the chief ministers so far. But with his new responsibility, he cannot evade accountability. 2013 will mark the rise of the Rahul Congress and the eclipse of the traditional Congress—a tradition that started with the anointment of his grandmother Indira Gandhi in 1967, and followed by his father later on. Both created their own versions of the Congress by placing greater premium on loyalty than on merit. There is, however, a qualitative difference between the politics of the 1980s and that of the 21st century. Now in the battle between perception and performance, those who deliver more than what they promise will rule the heart of New India. The electoral aerobics of 2013 will decide the decibel level and political health of the prospective heartthrob.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabwhuChawla