Dravidian Patriarch woos history with dreams .....Power & Politics / The Sunday Standard/ May 07, 2017

Dravidian patriarch woos history with dreams of opposition unity in birthday spirit

Divided they have fallen too often. United they expect to rise again. Battered by three years of the relentless fury of Modicane, demoralised and disconsolate opposition parties are anxious to regain the power—mental and physical—to contain the prime minister’s power drive. Subsequently, marginalised leaders of minimised political parties have settled on the upcoming presidential election as a common ground to pitch their tent, ready for jousts against the saffron knighthood and its captain.

 

What better day for sunny dreams than at a birthday party, which promises to be a new D-Day for Opposition unity, however weary the dreamers may be? Last week, Kanimozhi, daughter of DMK founder M Karunanidhi, flew to Patna—perhaps for the first time on an important political mission—to invite Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and master puppeteer Lalu Prasad to her father’s 94th birth anniversary celebrations in Chennai on June 3.

With less than 24 months left for the Lok Sabha elections, non-saffron parties are desperately seeking a credible leader and a slogan to take their anaemic ambitions off the ventilator. In the past, it took a combined Opposition to dethrone leaders with power and charisma such as Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. In 1977, Indira was trounced when a united political voice warned voters of her dictatorial style threatening democracy. But Modi is not she.

He is a leader above reproach so far, resolute yet reverential about democracy, having committed no political sin unlike Indira & Sons. The Opposition is left to digging deep and deeper in the political dung heap for filth to be flung at Swachh Modi, but have only succeeded in dirtying its own hands so far. 

Opposition draftsmen are betting on a war machine ‘Made in North, South and East’ to take on Modi’s mojo. Kanimozhi is in the turret right now. Satraps of JD(U), CPI(M), NCP and Congress have been holding consultations to forge an anti-Modi front, prompted by former JD(U) chief Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar after meeting Congress president Sonia Gandhi over choosing a common candidate for the Rashtrapati Bhawan. Yadav felt that such successful interactions could go a long way in stalling the BJP’s nationwide surge.

He admitted disunity in non-BJP ranks as the key reason behind the saffron party’s wins in the Uttar Pradesh polls and the Delhi civic elections. Following which, the CPI(M) moved into the Operation-Oppose-Modi-Mode swiftly; its amiable, high-profile general secretary Sitaram Yechury met Sonia in Delhi and Naveen Patnaik in Bhubaneswar to mull a strategy to avoid a breakup of the non-BJP vote in the prez poll. But geography makes history. The Opposition’s choice of Chennai as the ground zero for rebirth rings a bell.

Almost two decades ago, Karunanidhi had created political history by bringing ideologically opposed parties together at a rally he organised on March 17, 1988, at Marina Beach. The political velocity it generated led to the formation of a national front led by V P Singh, supported by veterans like N T Rama Rao, Devi Lal, Biju Patnaik, Prafulla Mahanta et al which eventually toppled Rajiv Gandhi a year later. 

Following the Chennai Summit, other conclaves organised by non-Congress chief ministers had added to the momentum. On January 9, 1989, the NT Rama Rao-led TDP government held a public rally in Hyderabad to celebrate its seventh anniversary—attended by S S Barnala from SAD, V C Shukla from Jan Morcha, Vijaya Raje Scindia from BJP and Devi Lal from Lok Dal (B). The constellation of non-Congress planets were coming into alignment.

Next, to celebrate five successful years of the Janata government in Karnataka, then chief minister Ramakrishna Hegde organised a public meeting in Bangalore attended by V P Singh, Bahuguna, Jyoti Basu, Mahanta and E K Nayanar. The Comrade’s inclusion was significant, since it was the first time the Left was corralled into participating in an anti-Congress front. Interestingly, all three initiatives were taken by three chief ministers of three states. History took an ideological U-turn again in 1996 when various regional leaders, the Left and the Congress conjoined to topple India’s first BJP government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Now in 2017, little-known woman politician Kanimozhi, who is better known for her social than political networking, has been chosen to woo the North where Modi magic reigns unchallenged.

Her Patna trip was the tip of a national Opposition iceberg formed to sink the BJP’s Titanic by building a consensus for the next president. She connected brother M K Stalin with Lalu and Nitish. The conversation was more about politics than pineapple pastries; and the massive rally after the Kalaignar’s birthday bash. 

Though DMK insiders claim Karunanidhi’s state of mind is too feeble to think up such a strategy, Kanimozhi’s sojourn carries his typical stamp of forging impossible alliances, forcing a movement to rise when the moment arose. When Indira was isolated by top Congress leaders in 1969 during the Syndicate split, Karunanidhi asked his 25 MPs to stand by her. In 1971, he followed her cue by dissolving the Assembly when she dissolved the Lok Sabha for simultaneous elections. His strategy paid rich dividends and his party won an unprecedented 184 seats; a state record.

Now, with the ruling AIADMK in disarray, Karunanidhi wants to capitalise on the waning clout of his opponents. With uncanny foresight, the constant centrist in this family party has decided to introduce his political heirs—Stalin and Kanimozhi—to national leaders before he is rendered physically inactive.

He has played a major role in choosing prime ministers in the past. He has always aligned with one national party or the other in New Delhi. The DMK has been part of many ruling coalitions at the Centre.

The fact that for the first time it is out of power in both the state and Delhi after many years has vastly eroded its clout. 

Birthdays, weddings and anniversaries have acquired new meaning in Modi era politics. Karunanidhi has the rare ability of converting challenges into opportunities.

 

Now he has found one. Modi bashers and baiters seem confident that the waves of Marina beach will break out in applause lauding their efforts once again. They are looking forward to landing in Chennai to celebrate Karunanidhi’s birthday, expecting to have the cake and eat it too. But do they have the reach to swat the flies on the walls, wandered in from Modi’s kitchen where ideas are cooking faster than you can say 2019? 

prabhuchawla@ newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Congress must call the bluff... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/March 24, 2013

Congress must call the bluff of its avaricious allies to regain credibility

There is no dearth of talent in the UPA. Yet it is perceived as the least effective government since I K Gujral’s. It’s high on hype but abysmally low on delivery and content. With ministers like P Chidambaram, Salman Khurshid, Anand Sharma, Kamal Nath, Kapil Sibal, Jairam Ramesh and Sharad Pawar, the UPA could have performed miracles and earned a third term in office without much effort. All these leaders are known for thinking out of the box. They are also famous for taking risks and ignoring political interests. But now, all of them have become the part of the system, which is failing fast and losing its will to govern.

Even insiders feel that the nation is now being led by highly overrated civil servants and not by the political leadership, which is too busy trying to retain power at any cost. All events and administrative accidents from the Italian marines fiasco to the ill-timed CBI raids on the home of DMK’s heir apparent M K Stalin clearly point to the fact that while the Congress definitely occupies the chair at the Centre, it is not really in power. What else can explain the statement given by both the Prime Minister and the finance minister that the raids were incorrect and unacceptable? Never before has either of them commented adversely on the functioning of any investigative agency, and have let them do their job. This also proved beyond doubt that now the bureaucracy has become so emboldened and empowered that it can embarrass the government with critical actions that have serious legal and political ramifications. If a joint director-level babu is now in a position to defy the established hierarchy, it is an indication that either our executive is maturing or that there is a crisis of leadership at the top. Otherwise, the raiding party wouldn’t have given the ridiculous explanation that they were merely searching for imported cars, which they thought were hidden on the first or second floor of Stalin’s residence.

So, as the UPA enters its last year in office, the odds are heavily placed against its survival—even for the next few months. The economy, which could survive the 2008 global collapse, is unable to withstand even a minor nudge from the Eurozone crisis. India’s neighbours, who were earlier afraid of raising a finger, are now holding guns to our heads and threatening our supremacy and challenging our authority in the region. For years, no global high table would be complete without the presence of Indian leaders. Now, other countries ignore us like a fallen icon. The international community has now realised that if Indian leaders can’t resolve problems at home, how can they be trusted with solutions for global revival?

Nothing else explains the erosion of central authority than the political pickle created by a tiny 18-member regional party like the DMK, and the defiance of a weak European nation like Italy. While Italy’s tottering government succumbed to the mounting pressure of the Indian judiciary and public opinion, the DMK leadership delivered the most painful blow to the UPA and Congress. So frightened was the Congress that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had to dispatch three senior ministers—A K Antony, Chidambaram and Ghulam Nabi Azad—to Chennai to plead with Karunanidhi not to withdraw his support on the Sri Lanka issue. It has been staring at us since the past three months, but it never occurred to the Congress to sensitise the DMK against the possible fallout if India opposed the US-sponsored resolution against Sri Lanka. There was a disconnect between the external affairs ministry, the national security adviser and the Prime Minister’s Office.

With Sonia Gandhi leaving it to the Prime Minister to sort out the dilemma, the pro-US mandarins in South Block had a field day. Instead of striking a balance between prudent diplomacy and expedient politics, they were simultaneously blaming the political leadership for the crisis and working strongly for the US resolution. If some of their colleagues are to be trusted, key Indian diplomats had already assured Sri Lanka and the US t  hat India would not oppose the resolution. Two days before the United Nations Human Rights Council adopted it, a couple of Indian Foreign Service officers were peddling the revised resolution to the media as a victory for India’s stand. In fact, the resolution was diluted in favour of Sri Lanka and the DMK could get hold of it, soon after Union ministers left Chennai. That was the real reason for its withdrawal of support. In the Italian marines affair, Indian diplomats were passing the buck on to the home ministry for its failure to appoint a special court so that the trail could start expeditiously. Moreover, there was an extraordinary delay in sending the newly appointed Indian ambassador to Italy; he was allowed to stay in India while Rome was diplomatically burning.

But the responsibility for the current governance deficit rests completely with the UPA’s top leadership. It has failed to anticipate and spot the trouble spots. Instead of keeping a vigil on the highly suspect civil service and its allies, the Congress has convinced itself that it would complete its full term in power. In the process, it has forgotten that the UPA has lost four allies in the past one year, reducing it to an arithmetical minority in the House. After the DMK’s withdrawal, it has become even more vulnerable. It will be spending more time in serving the interests of the Mayawatis, Mulayam Singh Yadavs, Nitish Kumars and even Mamata Banerjees, and not of the nation in general and the Congress in particular. The very fact that a section of the Congress was marketing Mamata’s symbolic gesture of support for Indian diplomacy as political support for survival indicates the fear and insecurity that have overtaken the ruling party. The only way for the Prime Minister and the Congress to regain credibility and authority is to call the bluff of its avaricious allies. This can be done only by proving beyond doubt that it is the PM who not only wields actual power, but also enjoys the confidence of Parliament.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Race Course Road/The Sunday Standard/June 12, 2011

UPA II in a tizzy over transparency

For the UPA government, transparency is the new survival mantra. Defence Minister A K Antony’s credibility eclipsed that of his colleagues when he said the nation was going through a transparency revolution. Antony is perceived as both the face and voice of the Congress Establishment. Simultaneously, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh directed the cabinet secretary to issue a six-page circular to all ministers asking them to declare not only their moveable and immovable assets but also their interests in corporate entities, if any. This isn’t the first time. It is a routine question after budget sessions of Parliament, but has been met with indifference or partial compliance reports. The administration blocked all RTI queries on ministerial assets. The PMO put their assets list on the Government website. According to insiders, the new order came after civil society leaders made their assets public. Ironically, most ministerial declarations are near-repeats of what they submitted to the Election Commission in 2009. The Government’s competitive transparency has now irked chief ministers and their cabinet colleagues. The political class is now desperately seeking lawyers and chartered accountants to keep their Assets and Liabilities Register in proper shape to avoid public ire but so far no one has declared imported cars or luxury palaces. They are also fuming over the leadership’s surrender to civil society leaders—whose own hunger for political harakiri is insatiable. Some ministers grumble in private that the time is not far away when they will be asked to make public their lunch and dinner menus too. Sonia and Manmohan would rather ride the transparency revolution even if means leaving others behind.

Alagiri brings back the aggression

The DMK wasn’t going to withdraw its support to the UPA government anyway. After M Karunanidhi’s emergency party meeting in Chennai last week, the party’s strategy now is to fight for their jailed leaders legally, and assert its authority in the Government. Lacking work in their own state, its ministers are spending more time in their offices. The Government got a taste of DMK’s veto power when the Empowered Group of Ministers on Petroleum Product Prices had to postpone a meeting following Fertilisers Minister M K Alagiri’s surprise intervention. The EGoM was to clear an increase in the prices of cooking gas, diesel, kerosene oil and petrol to offset losses of the state oil companies. But a 12th increase in less than a year would only add fuel to the fire of inflamed public opinion. The Centre raises over 18 per cent of its revenue from taxes on petroleum products. Pranabda and his market-friendly advisers don’t want the state to lose revenue or look for alternative sources to raise money. Alagiri spoilt the party by making it clear that the DMK wasn’t in favour of raising prices as it would have an adverse impact on fertiliser prices. Alagiri, who has been accused of ignoring his ministry, ambushed the prime minister by attending all Cabinet meetings and shooting off detailed letters on ministerial issues. Alagiri’s interference is the first visible bite of a wounded ally. No wonder, with one sun setting in the south, the other son is rising again in the Capital—and he has no skeletons in his cupboard.

NCP goes about its business

As the DMK asserts itself, the Nationalist Congress Party—another important UPA ally—is engaged in a war of nerves with the Congress leadership. With both Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar and Minister for Heavy Industry Praful Patel under attack from a section of the Congress, the NCP decided to take one step backward for two steps forward later. Their 12th anniversary celebration in Maharashtra was meant to be a gala affair but Pawar converted it into a sober political meet. He advised his daughter Supriya Sule—a Lok Sabha MP and Kanimozhi’s best friend—to keep a low profile. Pawar kept the Congress guessing by keeping quiet on Ramdev. His party also scored by formally demanding that the century-old Dadar Railway Station be renamed Chaityabhoomi Railway Station, which is associated with the Dalit messiah Baba Ambedkar. Pawar has also sent ominous signals to the Congress by cosying up to opposition leaders like the TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu.

Manmohan’s Baba hangover

On the face of it, the Government seems to be celebrating the abortion of the Ramdev movement. In private, it is scurrying to unearth moles within the establishment who were leaking confidential information on Operation Baba. The PMO is baffled by how the media was informed about the supposedly secret airport visit of the four ministers accompanied by senior bureaucrats to meet Ramdev, something he had decided only that morning. They were instructed to send him back from the airport itself. Pranabda was furious at the presence of TV vans and journalists . He escaped the cameras, but other ministers and babus couldn’t duck. An angry Pranabda asked the IB chief about the leakage. The hapless intelligence chief is in no position to disclose information as it involves a Union minister. According to IB sources, a cellphone call from a minister to the media was the leak and the PMO was briefed about it. Meanwhile, the police failure to monitor Baba’s movements after midnight has worried the home ministry. Once the police swooped down on the dais, Baba disappeared and was untraceable for nearly two hours. They caught him later, but imagine what could have happened had the Baba got away!