Modi will Create History .......Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/ November 09, 2014

Modi Will Create History if he Succeeds in Making People of Uttar Pradesh Accept a Gujju as Saviour

Poverty is often the petri dish of power. Uttar Pradesh is one of India’s most deprived states, but politically, the most powerful. Every seventh Lok Sabha MP is from there. Before Narendra Modi became the PM, eight of India’s 13 PMs were from UP. Since Independence, they have collectively ruled the nation for 47 years. For Modi, the ninth PM to be elected from UP, the state’s political numerology is significant. Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the BJP’s first PM, because one-third of BJP Lok Sabha members came from UP. In 2014, the party won a record number 0f 71 seats. Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first PM, and Modi, the present PM, are both from the state. Other PMs who were launched in UP were Indira Gandhi, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Rajiv Gandhi, Charan Singh, Chandrasekhar and Vishwanath Pratap Singh.

Last week, various parties and leaders, including Modi, initiated moves aimed at acquiring dominance over UP. Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, fearing the total decimation of his outfit, decided to bring the ossified Janata Parivar factions together, hoping that it would keep their traditional vote bank intact. The RSS has also scaled up its activities in UP, with its top leadership spending more time in the state, deploying additional forces to consolidate its base and capture new pastures. Last week, the PM chose to stay overnight in his constituency, Varanasi, as part of an unfolding plan to consolidate his grip over the state. He chose to represent the holy city because it is a symbol of Hindu heritage and one of the most sacred of Gangetic destinations. Aware of the fact that he is the first non-UP leader to become the PM after getting a handsome mandate from Varanasi’s voters, Modi has decided to return the favour. He doesn’t belong to any of its dominant castes such as Brahmins, Thakurs and upper caste Kayasthas like Shastri, but it hasn’t stopped Modi from getting the new Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar (who is likely to be elected to the Rajya Sabha from Uttar Pradesh within 24 hours of his swearing-in). This reflects his intention to raise the level of UP’s participation in his Cabinet. It is for the first time that the PM, the home minister and the defence minister, all represent Uttar Pradesh in Parliament. Though both Modi and Parrikar aren’t from UP, along with Rajnath Singh, they make a formidable troika that can demolish all hostile political combinations. 

With the induction of Parrikar and other ministers, UP will have the maximum representation in the Central government—Uma Bharti, Kalraj Mishra, Maneka Gandhi, Santosh Gangwar, Gen. V K Singh and Sanjeev Kumar Balyan. Previously, such a situation had happened only during Morarji Desai’s reign, during which he inducted four Cabinet ministers from UP, including Chaudhury Charan Singh as the home minister. Rajiv Gandhi ensured that powerful leaders like Narain Dutt Tiwari, V P Singh, K C Pant and Mohsina Kidwai were given prominent positions. Barring G B Pant, who was India’s first Home Minister from UP (then the United Provinces), it was only Charan Singh who held the honour. Additionally, for the first time, three of the five members of the all-powerful Cabinet Committee on Security represent Uttar Pradesh. It is not just a coincidence that they enjoy the full confidence of the RSS leadership. Although Modi has his eyes fixed on Bihar and UP since almost half the Lok Sabha seats the party won are from these two states, it is the only in UP where his twin mantra of Hindutva and development can deliver handsome dividends. On the face of it, UP is caste-ridden, communally polarised and is bereft of any national leader. But for a large number of aspirational UP-ites, Modi has projected himself as the messiah of modernisation, a liberal Hindu and a leader with nationwide appeal.

If the future contours and content of BJP’s Operation UP is an indication, Modi would be spending about 20 days every year in the state. He has already established a full-fledged office equipped with state-of-the-art technology to monitor not only Varanasi but also the entire state. A special cell is to be set up in the PMO under a senior officer who would keep a real time watch on all developments in Uttar Pradesh. But Modi’s trump card appears to be the Ganga. By putting Uma Bharti, a Ganga devotee, in charge of the river rejuvenation project, he expects to influence the voters of 45 Lok Sabha seats and of over 200 Assembly seats situated along and around Ganga’s path. UP is the only state in which the RSS, the Union government and the state BJP work in perfect coordination. While RSS workers identify relevant issues at the ground level and present their wish list to their leadership, the state unit of the BJP forwards it to Om Mathur, the Central leader in charge of Uttar Pradesh.

It was Amit Shah who chose Mathur, who had assisted him in the Gujarat and Maharashtra Assembly elections for the job. He is supported by a few trusted political aides from Gujarat and other states. In addition, all the infrastructure ministries have been instructed to pay special attention to pending projects in UP, give them the extra push to take off, and also pump in generous funds. Both Bharti and Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari have done a detailed study of various water- and road-related issues and will be spending their maximum time in the state. Urban Development Minister Venkaiah Naidu has been pushing for the development of the maximum number of smart cities in UP. If Gujarat was the laboratory for the Hindutva experiment, Modi is turning Uttar Pradesh into an exhibition venue to showcase his development agenda, while retaining Hindutva as the core ingredient. His plan is to restore the state’s national status it had lost in the churning of regional politics. Team Modi is now marketing the PM in the state as a leader who would replace titans like Nehru, Indira and Vajpayee. Modi will create political history again if he succeeds in making the Hindi-speaking and god-fearing UP bhaiyyas accept a Gujju as their saviour.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

By Winning Assemblies, PM aims, ..... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/October 12, 2014

By Winning Assemblies, PM Aims to Decimate Regional Chiefs and Capture Rajya Sabha

Normally, after winning a war, losing a few minor battles shouldn’t bother a warrior. But PM Narendra Modi and his trusted party chief Amit Shah are treating the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana as yet another war to be won in order to consolidate their control over India’s political market. If the colour and character of their campaign are indications, it is a fight between Modi and the rest—it’s Lok Sabha election redux, with the BJP projecting NaMo as its only candidate in all the 288 and 90 Assembly seats in Maharashtra and Haryana respectively.

Never since Independence has a PM become the lone star of a local election. Starting from the Delhi border with Rajasthan on one side and Uttar Pradesh on the other, all roads, walls and hoardings carry only Modi’s redoubtable visage. The name and picture of the local candidate is hardly visible or advertised. The BJP’s election slogan has also been chosen thoughtfully. If the war cry in the 2014 General Elections was Abki Baar Modi Sarkar (It’s time for a Modi government), it has coined an extended slogan, Chalo Chalein Modi Ke Saath (Let’s move with Modi) for the states. The party and its leaders, whether it is Shah or any Cabinet minister, never disclose the name of the CM candidate in a state poll. Instead they ask voters to vote for a government, which will work with Modi. Modi promises a Team India comprising CMs from his party alone. This is contrary to his announcement during the Lok Sabha election campaign that all CMs, irrespective of their political affiliations, would be co-opted. But the tone and tenor of Modi’s speeches during the Assembly poll campaigns reflect a resolve to establish his control over a large swathe of political India. His discourse sounds exactly like Indira Gandhi’s, who promoted a strong Centre and weak states during her reign. Modi himself was as a chief minister for 12 years. Now that he is India’s PM, he would like his model to be implemented unchallenged. If the Congress sans Indira or any other Gandhi is like a vehicle that has run out of fuel, the BJP without Modi is like a fish out of water. Modi has credibility and vigour to be numero uno, while the BJP lacks any of these virtues. The party couldn’t find winnable candidates in over 30 per cent of the constituencies in Haryana and Maharashtra. When the public simulacrum reflected a massive defeat for the BJP minus a charismatic local chieftain, it decided to invoke Moditva. It is for the first time that a PM is addressing such a large number of rallies during any Assembly poll.

Modi is aiming at more than a decisive victory in the two states. He sees an invincible opportunity. If he wins both, it would be the beginning of the BJP seizing better control not only in the states but also in the Rajya Sabha, where it is in a hopeless minority. Moreover, a victory will also provide him with the authority to impose CMs of his choice in Maharashtra and Haryana. Currently, barring Gujarat CM Anandiben Patel, the previous establishment had chosen the remaining three CMs in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Modi decided to take charge of the Assembly campaign after the party suffered humiliating defeats in the by-polls held in Bihar, UP and Rajasthan in July. Soon after his return from a highly successful trip to the US, Modi decided to defy the convention of the PM’s minimum participation in regional elections. He sent clear signals that he would be available for any number of rallies in any part of the two states, even at the cost of getting a sore throat.

NaMo is neither a compromiser nor a reconciliator regarding his principles or mission. Contrary to general belief, it was only after his nudge and nod that the party broke its 25-year-old alliance with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and a decade-old relationship with Haryana Janhit Congress led by Kuldeep Bishnoi. Modi wanted to send a clear message to his (diminished) detractors in the party that he doesn’t need them and that his dependable party chief can deliver the states without the help of allies. Its political divorces have left BJP without any significant ally in all the major states. Earlier, it had broken ties with Nitish Kumar in Bihar. At the moment, it has picayune parties like the Akali Dal and Ram Vilas Paswan as partners, along with Chandrababu Naidu. The viciousness of the speeches being made in Haryana by saffron leaders against the Akali Dal is an indication of BJP’s strained relationship with the Punjab party.

Modi’s road map is clear. He wants the BJP to jettison needling regional allies and capture as many states as possible alone. His real purpose is to improve the BJP’s strength in the Rajya Sabha, which can happen only if it gets a majority on its own in the states. If they continue to remain under non-BJP control, the party wouldn’t be able to increase its current number of 43 MPs to 60 in the next 10 years. Maharashtra sends 19 members to the Rajya Sabha, the second highest after Uttar Pradesh, which has 31. At the moment, the BJP has only three members from the Maratha state. Modi wants to treble his party’s tally. Before his five-year term expires, 20 states would have gone to the polls. Modi has targeted Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi and Karnataka, which account for over 90 seats while the BJP has just about a dozen from these states. Once he captures Maharashtra and Haryana, no party would be able to stop the Modi juggernaut from capturing the other states. NaMo has already set new records in politics. But for him, even the sky is not the limit. When challenged, Modi’s posture becomes even more determined. His current endeavour seems to be to decimate regional leaders and become India’s most feared and adored national leader.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla