By Seeking Bail, the Gandhis ..... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ December 20, 2015

By Seeking Bail, the Gandhis Have Taken Baby Steps Towards Political Sainthood

Stone walls do not a prison make, but a stint in prison stonewalls, by default, all doubts about the stature of political leaders. The symbiosis between prison and politics creates living heroes. Historically, jails and courtrooms have served as incubators, which nurse budding leaders to become future customers for the tenacious tailors of populism, who will measure them for new suits to fit their newly acquired political height. Last weekend, the national political discourse and narrative centered on the question whether jail instead of bail would be the best option for Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to vitaminise their leadership and boost the shrunk cachet of the Congress. They have taken their baby steps towards political sainthood by presenting themselves before the court and seeking bail. Both belong to a pedigree whose members have spent long or short stints in gaol before becoming national leaders. Their bloodline trend began with Motilal Nehru and ended with Indira Gandhi. It was only Rajiv Gandhi who couldn’t get the political opportunity to gatecrash jail in spite of the Bofors calamity, leaving voters to judge his case instead.

The paradox is that Mahatma Gandhi’s prison days led to his Experiments with Truth as the patriarch of the Congress and Independence, who only had the national interest in mind, while the Gandhi family’s evocative experiments with jail had little to do with public causes. This time, they have converted a mere court attendance into an opportunity to hit back at PM Modi. BJP leader Subramanian Swamy has accused them, along with five others, of illegally grabbing assets of the defunct National Herald newspaper. A local court summoned both mother and son to appear before it to legally argue against the allegations. Since it was for the first time that both were called to appear by any court, the party saw it as a golden opportunity to catapult them as victims of Modi government’s “politics of vendetta”.

The Congress strategy is in tune with the age-old conduct of leaders in India and other democratic societies, who seek revival of their relevance. For Sonia and Rahul, it was just an act of picking a page from the history of political battles fought by the Gandhis. Indira Gandhi converted the punitive action initiated by the Morarji Desai-led government in 1977 to re-establish herself as the populist queen who would rather fight than bow before the might of the state. On October 4, 1977, a day after she was arrested for political corruption by the Janata Party government, the court released her unconditionally. Her feisty offspring Sanjay Gandhi chose to face a lathi charge along with his Youth Congress followers. It was their ‘jail bharo’ strategy that brought the family back to power within 30 months. Ironically, the Gandhis succeeded in voting out a government, of which most ministers, including PM Desai, had spent over a year incarcerated during the Emergency. Even today, many national leaders and Union ministers have acquired their current elevated moral status by going to jail accidentally or by design. Many current and former CMs carry the proud tag of jailbirds. If Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar, Parkash Singh Badal and Karunanidhi have become leaders of note, it is partially thanks to their brief landings in jailyards.

The romance between gaol and politics has been a most effective method to rocket many leaders to power in other countries as well. In Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif became PM again because he was exiled by General Musharraf. Benazir Bhutto’s party won a massive mandate because her father, Zulfikar Ali, was jailed and executed by another general, Zia-ul Haq. The post-mortem charisma of Quaid-i-Awam—beloved of the people—Bhutto Senior acquired after his hanging rubbed off on his daughter’s popularity. In Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi—who spent two decades in jail at the instance of the junta—scored a political victory when her National League for Democracy won the parliamentary elections last month. Though Suu Kyi is constitutionally barred from holding any top political office, she had the mandate to influence the choice of Myanmar’s next president, because of  her stature as a living symbol of political martyrdom. Nelson Mandela was elected the first President of apartheid-free South Africa after his release from jail, where he spent 27 years. Mandela had said prophetically, “It is said that no one truly knows a nation until one has been inside its jails. A nation should not be judged by how it treats its highest citizens, but its lowest ones.”

Since politics is supposed to be about public service and protecting the marginalised, politicians find jail as an effective habitat to learn about poverty and criminalisation. Learning from history and experiments in various countries, Indian parties from the Left to the Right have been encouraging their cadres to adopt issues and tactics, which would lead to agitations, in turn leading to short jail terms. There is hardly any protest in the country in which agitators do not violate laws and land in the lockup. Applications sent to party headquarters by various candidates seeking nominations to the state legislatures and Parliament prominently mention jail terms as a sterling qualification. The joke is that many accidental Emergency prisoners are still lobbying with Modi to accommodate them in lucrative government assignments on the strength of their stay in jail between 1975 and 1977.

For the Gandhis, however, courting jail is not a tactic to seek any office. Both are Lok Sabha members and hold the first and second position in the Congress respectively. If the thought of spending some time in prison ever struck their minds, it would be purely prompted by the strategy to kill two birds with one stone. If either or both had been denied bail, it would have diverted popular attention from the National Herald case and rallied the dispirited party behind the family. The Gandhis also expect Congressmen to bury their factional fights and save their moribund political enterprise as well as dent the PM’s popular image. The Congress is not leaving any opportunity to hit the NDA government. From the Vyapam scam in Madhya Pradesh to corruption in DDCA, it is determined to convert every visible slippage by any NDA leader into a cause for hitting the streets. Since the next general election is 40 months away, the Gandhi gameplan will unfold soon. Its basic contours revolve around agitational politics, which will provide enough chances to Rahul to be photographed behind the bars. A stay in jail is the only prized qualification missing from his resume. He is itching for symbolic handcuffs to give both the Congress Hand and himself a hand.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

PM Must Adopt Atal's Magnanimity ... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ November 29, 2015

PM Must Adopt Atal's Magnanimity and Indira's Firmness to Sustain his Leadership

With power comes great responsibility. Just in time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has woken up to the implications of being the most powerful man in the country and realised he cannot afford to leave governance to others. The buck stops at his desk. Last week, the standoffish saffron sultan used the dialogue device to power parliamentary politics, which had been derailed in the past few sessions. For the first time in 18 months, he invited his predecessor Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi for a chai pe charcha at 7 Race Course Road. Ostensibly, the 40-minute meeting appeared to be just an official parley between the head of state and the principal Opposition party to clear the GST logjam. They have been at loggerheads since Modi became Prime Minister. But their body language after the meeting signalled that Modi had made the first move to dispel the impression that he had any personal animosity towards the Congress leadership. He also indicated that he was willing to give the party the importance it deserves and take its concerns into consideration. Deftly, the PM had projected the fact that in a democracy, governance is based on consensus and not on majority muscle, even before the meeting happened. For the first time, Modi became an active participant in Lutyens’ Delhi politics, which he had so far vowed to shun. He had confined himself to diplomacy and pushing innovative schemes to earn him the laurels of being India’s most successful Prime Minister.

When he understood that his credibility as ‘the leader who delivers’ was being pummelled in India and abroad, he decided to abandon his majestic aloofness to mingle with those whom he ideologically abhorred the most. Myriad Modi promoters and supporters were dismayed that the government couldn’t get important legislations like the GST and Land Bill approved by Parliament. Modi has pushed his colleagues to open up the economy, so that investors look and feel visibly at ease in doing business in India. During the past few months, the NDA government has liberalised rules for foreign investment in important sectors like real estate, defence, banking, e-commerce, media and retail. Modi ignored protests from some sections of the Sangh Parivar. Despite many structural and growth-oriented reforms, his government was seen as non-performing amateur on the economic front. Additionally, its image got besmirched by irresponsible statements from some fringe elements in the Sangh Parivar. To add to this dismal dilemma, the award-wapsi campaign by prominent Leftist and secularist intellectuals fuelled negative publicity both at home and overseas. Finally, a humiliating defeat in Bihar dented Modi’s image of an invincible vote warrior, though it was the failure of state leaders to connect with the local electorate that had more to do with the debacle.

That didn’t deter his detractors to gleefully connect his parliamentary softening with BJP’s Bihar debacle. True, it is not a coincidence that he decided to engage with the Opposition only after the Bihar elections were over. According to PMO insiders, he was being given the impression that many interlocutors, including senior ministers, were in constant touch with all parliamentary stakeholders to ensure the smooth passage of crucial bills such as GST. The truth is, none of the intermediaries dealing with the Congress had ever discussed the possibility of a powwow between the Congress leadership and Prime Minister to resolve existing conflicts. Both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi made it publicly clear that no BJP minister ever discussed GST or any other pending legislative issues with them. A large section of the party’s top guns and some senior ministers are opposed to a dialogue with the Congress. They want punitive action taken against Congress leaders—including sitting and former chief ministers—and hammer through cases in various courts. Various investigative agencies like the Enforcement Directorate and CBI have been instructed to dig up dirt on every Congress politician who matters. Undoubtedly, many of them were involved in financial irregularities when in power, but their party leadership is splenetic over the speed with which the government is pursuing the cases. Additionally, some prominent ministers were ranting against Congress leaders at a time when the PMO was initiating an inter-party dialogue.

Modi’s personal initiative, however, is going to change the way Delhi politics is being managed. Modi is a networker par excellence. He was one of the most active BJP general secretaries during the mid 1990s. He enjoyed immense personal rapport with leaders across the political spectrum. But he became a political pariah after the Gujarat riots. Most national leaders, corporate honchos and Bollywood stars became his cacophonous critics. He was spurned by the goliaths of the social and political hierarchy. For 12 years, he had to confine himself to Gujarat. As a result, his confidence and capacity to deal with formidable opponents suffered much. Then he surprised all by rising like a sphinx during the Lok Sabha elections and captained a record-breaking electoral victory for the BJP. He was in no mood for a political dialogue with his detractors. Ever since he became the Prime Minister, Modi had refrained from entertaining any of the Opposition leaders on a personal level, meeting them only at all-party meetings. He did conceive NITI Aayog, where he could interact with chief ministers. But it wasn’t Chanakyaesque enough to give him the sly, silky skills needed to negotiate New Delhi’s viciously tortuous political labyrinth. His experience of the past few months in the capital has made him realise that he can’t confine himself to the Zen of just being the Prime Minister, leaving political punditry to others. Modi’s conclave with Congress leaders last week is just the beginning of a series of encounters, which he is planning with other political protagonists too. So far, he has stuck to meeting foreign dignitaries, celebrities from India and abroad as well as his trusted aides. His success as the supreme national leader will depend on his ability to adopt the mellow magnanimity of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the unalloyed firmness of Indira Gandhi.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Any Delay in Taking a Final Call ..... Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/ March 01, 2015

Any Delay in Taking a Final Call will Make or Mar Gandhi Parivar and Congress Party

Dear Soniaji,

This is an open letter written with an open mind for an open mind. Everyone is fully aware that the Gandhi Parivar is passing through testing times. For a party, triumphs and defeat are cyclical. You win some, you lose some. But over the past few months, the winning record of the Congress has been abysmal. It is perceived as a family-owned outfit passing through an agonising rhythm of fluctuating fortunes. The absence of your party’s vice-president Rahul Gandhi—who also happens to be your son—from the cloak and dagger drama of the capital’s politics must be painful. Undoubtedly, he has the right to take a break from gruelling political acrobatics and spend quality time on aerobics with nature at an undisclosed, sylvan spot. Rahul is known for his frugal habits and obsession with health gadgets. But even his staunchest admirers feel that his sabbatical is not only badly-timed but is also bad news for the much-mauled party. I’m sure he would have taken your permission, and as the Congress President, you would have reluctantly given it so that he can reflect on the present and ponder over his past actions which led to the total rout of the Congress in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and in the recent Delhi Assembly elections. While Rahul is engaged in vipasanna and introspection, you are confined to 10 Janpath to plan a strategy for a rejuvenated Rahul when he returns home next week. Will you pass on the baton to him, yielding to his conditions? Or will you carry on with the old leadership? The party is waiting impatiently for an answer.

Now the Congress has reached a terminal stage where any call taken by you can either remake it or let it die a natural death. The party is at war with itself. Various leaders are speaking in different voices. It is not a new experience for you. Whenever your party suffers a massive defeat, a section of its leadership gets impatient and seeks a scapegoat. They also find excuses to desert. It happened in 1969, 1989 and 1995. While individuals vanished, the party survived due to sudden rise of another Gandhi. Indira Gandhi survived the Syndicate’s machinations and created a new Indira Congress. In 1977, when the Congress lost the General Elections, many stalwarts left Indira and her son Sanjay Gandhi to fight the might of Janata Party government. Both of them took to the streets. Indira was sent to jail and Sanjay faced a lathi-charge. The Congress was back in power 30 months later.

In the early Nineties, your loyalists saw you as the password to victory. They first ejected Narasimha Rao and then Sitaram Kesari, and installed you as the Congress president. The party lost the first election fought under you in 1999. But you didn’t feel tired or wanted to retire. Instead, you brought many Congressmen who had once humiliated you back into the party fold. You decided to compromise on your Gandhian-Nehruvian ego and forge strategic alliances with your political foes. In 2004, the party threw the Shining India campaign into darkness and was back in Raisina Hill. Five years later, it won 206 seats, more than your late husband Rajiv Gandhi’s tally in 1989.

In 2004, you decided to politically baptise Rahul. Your intent was clear. Once you retired, the Congress couldn’t be left in the hands of any non-Gandhi. You were clear that the party needed a new face with a new message for the future. Rahul was projected as Mr Clean with a modern mind. He would build a party for the future, minus ideological baggage. In the past decade, however, he hasn’t shown any inclination to reinvent the party. Even Congress workers are confused about his philosophy and mission. He is seen as a young man without a mantra. On the other hand, if senior Congress leaders hold the reins, Rahul will be just a titular head without power. Like an obedient son, he stayed away from taking decisions on issues in your domain. The state of the party today is like a royal regime in which son differs with but would never defy his monarch-parent. The palace tremors, however, are being felt in the entire party, which feels that you both have diminished the party beyond redemption. Some feel that it is vertically divided between a small and young Rahul Congress and a top-heavy jaded Sonia Congress. The only positive factor in this factionalism is that your authority is acceptable to all. A battle, however, is raging between those who are unwilling to give up their perches and those who want to take over because their future lies in the success and survival of the 129-year-old party. Rahul has definitely failed to enthuse workers and voters. His unorthodox campaign style and vanishing tricks have raised questions about his ability to lead and keep the party together. While the sell-by date of the Congress is over, the idea of the Congress survives. You will find a person carrying a Congress flag in almost every Indian village. But you will hardly find a credible leader in more than 70 per cent of the over 600 districts of India. The Congress exists nationally, but has vanished locally. It is time for you take the final call. You can either follow the tried and tested Indian tradition of handing over the business to the heir and spending a peaceful life thereafter, or you can take charge once again, discharging your son of all political responsibilities. Any delay will make both the Gandhi Parivar and the Congress party irrelevant.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Copyrights do expire. Gandhis must...Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ September 07, 2014

Copyrights Do Expire. Gandhis Must Rediscover Congress to Stay Politically Relevant

There cannot be a more opportune time for both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to dust the shelves of history, and pull out the gilded volumes of The Discovery of India written by Jawaharlal Nehru. The book could help them rediscover not just themselves but also their party—the Indian National Congress. The time has come for the stakeholders of the jaded 128-year-old outfit to rediscover and reposition itself. Since the Gandhis are the only shareholders, they have to devise a perfect and effective marketing strategy to reclaim the territory lost to Narendra Modi. If they feel that they can achieve this by  confining themselves to inaccessible, fortified homes and offices, they are likely to lose even more than what they can imagine. Congressmen want the Gandhis to lead from the front and not retreat into citadels. Their gestures and actions during the next months will not only decide the party’s future but also the political relevance of the Gandhi Parivar. Sonia acquired an iconic status after winning power for the Congress in 2004 and 2009. The Gandhis have always been recognised as national leaders. Now with the arrival of Modi on the national scene, Sonia has to score a dramatic comeback to retain her pan-Indian identity and exalted status.

The Congress has gone though many splits, climbed many hills and descended myriad valleys. But the party has never faced such a threat to its very existence. Even after 110 days of its worst defeat since Independence, the High Command is still prostrate with shock. The body language of the leadership and middle-level functionaries doesn’t reflect the resolve needed to stage a comeback. While the BJP has undergone a generational change and an ideological overhaul, the Congress is struggling to keep its flock together. Generally, the political war should be between the ruling party and the Opposition over issues and institutions. But the Congress appears to be at war with itself. The Gandhis are conspicuous by absence, yet the party keeps its faith in the Gandhis. A majority of workers feel that only a Gandhi can revive the party. But they are hugely demoralised by the internecine strife among senior leaders who are busy seeking various posts like the Leader of the Opposition and chairpersons of various parliamentary committees instead of agitating against the ruling party by finding fault with its governance. A former minister, known more for indiscretion than performance and was sacked for his objectionable conduct, lobbied so hard to grab the chairmanship of a panel by incessantly hounding the High Command that other more qualified young MPs were ignored. A large number of former ministers and senior functionaries cut sorry figures when they continue to behave as if they are still members of the ruling party, and fail to accept that they have lost not just power but credibility too. A bunch of defeated and defamed Congressmen pose a mammoth challenge to the party leadership by unashamedly seeking positions of power in the organisation. Perhaps this damaging environment has forced over a dozen young Congress officebearers to demand the purge of those who were responsible for the rout of 2014, but are unwilling to quit their lofty perches. A party general secretary demanded that anyone above 65 should retire from active politics. A month before, some state leaders had raised their voices against Rahul, holding him responsible for the collapse of the party structure.

Sporadic rebellion against the leadership is not unprecedented, especially after the party had lost a decisive election. The Congress genetically is an outfit of power-seekers. The party lost its independent character after Indira Gandhi faced down the powerful challenge from the party’s original freedom fighters. If they got India independence from the British, Indira Gandhi got liberation from them and created a portmanteau of loyalists who worshipped her like a deity. Since then, the inheritors of her political genealogy have been building and rebuilding a party of a quantity of followers, but few leaders of quality.

It is not surprising that despite the party’s humiliating defeat, no disgruntled Congress leader has demanded Sonia Gandhi’s resignation. They still feel that she is the only one who can revive the party’s sagging morale and nudge her son to be more politically proactive. For the past three months, they have been expecting a major organisational reshuffle—both at the Central and state levels. They were also expecting Sonia to tour the states extensively to address grassroots workers. In fact, she was working on a revival plan and had planned a Bharat Yatra accompanied by new set of officebearers. But she couldn’t take on the oldies. Even in the selection of various officebearers, she was advised against experimenting and just stick to the well-tested Congress principle of obliging every caste and region. For example, she was forced to appoint 72-year-old Mallikarjun Kharge as the party’s leader in the Lok Sabha only because he was a Dalit. Many effective senior leaders like Veerappa Moily and Kamal Nath were ignored. For the past 112 days, she has been meeting people from various parts of the country, but has refrained from calling a formal meeting of state leaders. Her supporters and admirers are equally baffled by her inaction in revamping the party machinery in the poll-bound states of Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and J&K. All of them have the sinking feeling that the High Command has accepted defeat in these states even before the elections have been formally announced. In addition, there are no serious talks about forging regional alliances to stop the Modi juggernaut from making a triumphant entry into these states. All of them are currently ruled by the Congress or in alliance with a local party. The party has formulated no strategy to fight the by-elections in various states like Uttar Pradesh. It has decided not to seriously participate in any of the 12 by-polls. The reason is quite a revelation. The party, which still rules around half the number of the country’s states and has held sway over India for over five decades, is short of funds. If this is indeed true, then it reveals yet another equation changing within the party. Those who are capable of funding the party and collecting huge amounts are not passing the dosh on to headquarters, but are keeping it with themselves to finance the elections of their supplicants. It is a clear signal to the Gandhis to undertake the long political journey to rediscover the Congress, which still swears by them, stands beside them and sacrifices for them. After all, copyrights do expire and royalty also ends.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Time Has Come for Gandhi Family ...... Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/ July 06, 2014

Time Has Come for Gandhi Family to Prove That it is Still a Powerful Brand

The litmus test of a leader lies in his or her ability to pull to safety followers who are teetering on the precipice of defeat and despair. Both Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul have been put to this test. It was under Sonia’s leadership that the Congress won the elections twice after Indira Gandhi. It was under her that Congress broke Rajiv Gandhi’s record of winning minimum number of 200 seats in 1989. And it was under Sonia’s leadership again that the 125-year-old party suffered its worst-ever electoral defeat this year. With just 44 seats in its kitty, this is the first time since Independence that the Congress can’t even claim the status of Leader of the Opposition (LoP). The deserted Congress headquarters at 24 Akbar Road and the unemployed status of former ministers and key functionaries reflect the impotent state of the party that ruled the nation for almost six decades. 

"The Congress leadership needs an effective and innovative marketing team, on the line of Narendra Modi’s, to repackage and sell their product. Unfortunately, their mood doesn’t reflect either the urgency or the inclination to recapture the lost market or glitter."

And yet, the leaders are not making any effort to get back to the basics and connect with the common man who felt betrayed by their 10-year misrule and non-governance. Instead, they seem to think that acquiring the LoP label will help revive the party, and the perks and paraphernalia of office will suffuse them with an aura that will influence voters. If that was the case, over 70 per cent of the old ministers wouldn’t have lost the elections. But they don’t seem to realise that. Instead of learning from the ignominious rout, they are still seeking out comfort zones. For the past two weeks, top party leaders have been lobbying, begging and even prostrating themselves in front of the ruling party leaders for the LoP and deputy LoP post. Why? So that they can get a room, a flagged car and over a dozen officials as personal staff.

According to convention, a party needs a minimum of 55 members to support its claim for the LoP’s office. The Congress doesn’t have the numbers, but is demanding the position on the basis of it being the second-largest party in the House after the 282-member BJP. The party has collected endorsements for its demand from both current and former allies. But the Lok Sabha Speaker is not bound by such support coming through press statements. The Congress seems to be so disorganised that it didn’t even occur to them to call a joint meeting of UPA allies and elect one of them as leader. The combined strength of the UPA is about 60 MPs and they fought the election as one group; their leader could easily have got the post of the LoP. But effective communication isn’t the virtue of the Congress; indeed, all its leaders work and walk in different directions.

The Congress’s avaricious politics of grabbing office at any cost has left its local leaders and cadres confused and directionless. All of them look to the Gandhis as the saviours of the party. After the humiliating defeat, Rahul ducked out of view but Sonia started meeting leaders to get direct feedback from those who had lost the elections. So far, she has met over 4,000 people. But the outcome of the long confabulations has shocked many party leaders. Because Sonia has once again chosen the saintly and god-fearing A K Antony to review the causes for defeat and send her a report with his recommendations. Now, Antony has conducted similar assignments in the past as well, but his reports, if there are any, appear to be confined to inaccessible archives of the AICC headquarters. The reports are never read, and hence the question of axing the culprits doesn’t arise. And the liabilities continue lording over the party.

On the face of it, Sonia appears to be serious about taking harsh measures and replacing the dead wood in the party with younger and committed leaders from the states. For the past two decades, the Congress has been controlled by people who have failed in their own states and have limited mass appeal. But it’s Sonia’s own core team that impedes any major overhaul of the party. They are all experts at destabilising strong local leaders and protecting inefficient ones. For example, for over three weeks after the electoral debacle, three Chief Ministers—Bhupinder Singh Hooda of Haryana, Prithviraj Chavan of Maharashtra and Tarun Gogoi of Assam—were kept dangling and threatened with the possibility of losing their posts. Senior leaders were sent to Maharashtra and Assam to gauge the situation, but no action was taken on their reports. Hooda, who had done better in terms of votes polled than the other chief ministers, was destabilised because of factional fights.

Ironically, the Gandhis have been trapped in solving factional fights rather than chalking out any strategy to win elections in the six states of Delhi, Maharashtra, Assam, Jharkhand, Haryana and J&K. Barring some doling out of freebies and reservations on caste and religious grounds, the party hasn’t done anything to win in any of the states ruled by the Congress or its allies. The Gandhis have not even given any attention to the growing tension with its allies in Maharashtra, J&K and Jharkhand. Though the first of the elections is just four months away, party leaders are still fighting each other instead of alongside each other. Some loyalists have asked Sonia and Rahul to take full charge of the organisation. They’ve told them that the Congress without the Gandhis is like a jet without fuel.

If the truth be told, it’s not just the fate of the Congress that is at risk; the very survival of both Sonia and Rahul lies in their capability to put their party on the victory stand again. A party packed with pygmies and sycophants may pose no threat to the Gandhis, but it can’t propel them forward either. The time has come for the family to prove that it is still a powerful, marketable brand. For this, the leadership needs an effective and innovative marketing team, on the line of Narendra Modi’s, to repackage and sell their product. Unfortunately, their mood doesn’t reflect either the urgency or the inclination to recapture the lost market or glitter. They seem to be content dreaming about a scenario where the promise of ‘Achche Din’ has evaporated. But “a dream doesn’t become reality through magic; it takes sweat, determination and hard work”.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

If Transition of Daughter into Political leader ..... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standared/ Mayn 04, 2014

If Transition of Daughter into Political Leader is to Go By, History Will Soon Repeat Itself 

  

History’s predilection is to repeat itself. But in case of the Gandhis, a rerun at very short intervals is the norm. Verdict-2014 is not just a skirmish between Narendra Modi and the Gandhis. It is a fight for survival for the Gandhi Parivar, which is now pitched against a United Sangh Parivar. On test are the political pull, power and charisma of the ruling clan. The piercingly piquant Priyanka, the relentlessly roaring Rahul and the sanguine strategist Sonia are fighting a last ditch battle to retain their identity and authority over the 120-year-old Congress. Sonia delivered the power, Rahul took over the organisation, and now Priyanka is determined to change the political discourse by turning the Lok Sabha battle into a furious fracas of Gandhis vs Modi. As Sonia voluntarily and tentatively begins her journey into the political sunset, she has left it to the Gandhi siblings to either swim or sink in the political whirlpool. Priyanka is neither a candidate nor office bearer. She has confined her campaign to 200 km of the dynasty’s topography, covering less than half-a-dozen constituencies. But when she speaks, her voice is heard all over India and provokes even a puissant PM candidate and his party to sit up and take note. Mrs Gandhi Jr has little political experience, and few achievements to showcase. Her password to fame is her surname—Gandhi. For the past 10 years, she has been talking about local issues. But now she speaks on national issues with authority. She invokes her pedigree by saying “I am Rajiv Gandhi’s daughter. My father gave his life for the country and cannot be compared with anyone.” It was political retort to Modi’s claim that Priyanka is like his daughter.

It was evident that the Gandhi daughter has taken upon herself to deal with Modi, who has been targeting mother Sonia, brother Rahul and husband Robert Vadra for the past six months. Modi and BJP leadership have hardly castigated scam-ridden Manmohan Singh’s stupor and slide. Their target has been the Gandhis. BJP is aware that this election is perhaps the last chance to explode the Gandhi myth. Once their influence is diminished, the Gandhis will be reduced to being Minimum Leaders, which will in turn lead to disintegration of Congress. The Gandhis are the only source of blood and oxygen for the Congress. Their pedigree has kept the party going for over a decade.

But historically, only one member of the family has been responsible for the rise and fall of the party before. When Congress was in trouble in 1967, it was left to Indira Gandhi to win the elections. Two years later, when the syndicate challenged her, she split the party and survived. In 1971, not only did she trounce the syndicate and created Bangladesh, but also returned to power with two-thirds majority. But she was in trouble again for rising corruption and inflation. Jayaprakash Narayan led a silent revolution against her. She imposed Emergency in 1975 and lost election in 1977.  The party was out, but Indira and her younger son Sanjay were never down. Some senior Congressmen flew the coop. But mother and son returned to power in 30 months; first by dismembering the ruling Janata Party and then by winning two-thirds majority. Sanjay’s death in 1980 and Indira’s assassination gave India its first accidental PM, Rajiv Gandhi, who won over 400 seats for Congress, with almost 50 per cent votes polled in his favour.

Rajiv also was the only Gandhi who couldn’t win a second uninterrupted mandate for the party. His government was accused of corruption, and senior ministers like V P Singh left to become challengers. In 1989, the Gandhi name was no longer an election-winning talisman. He lost to V P Singh. But Rajiv, like his mother, could pull down Singh’s government and revive the party. Unfortunately, he was killed and the reins of the party passed to a non-Gandhi for the second time. P V Narasimha Rao was chosen to head both party and government in 1991. For the next eight years, Congress ruled five years; supported others for two years and then lost badly again in 1998. Saffron replaced the tricolour. In 1998, the Gandhis realised that they have to take over the party, otherwise both the fraternity and the family would become just another chapter in India’s history. The family sponsors made sure that party boss Sitaram Kesri was ejected from 24 Akbar Road and replaced by a Gandhi—Sonia took over as AICC president; fought her first election in 1999 from Amethi, and defeated sitting BJP MP Sanjay Singh by over three lakh votes. Within the next five years, she turned the tables on opponents within and outside by springing a surprise, forging an alliance with even those who campaigned against her. With 145 seats, she not only spurned the offer of becoming PM, but also ensured that her nominee Manmohan Singh became PM. Her objective was clear. Acquire authority without responsibility and revive the Gandhi line. 

In 2009, Sonia won a record 206 seats, its largest tally since 1989, and brought the BJP down to 116 seats. But a weak PM, massive scams, policy paralysis, dual centres of power, Vadra’s questionable deals and an economic slowdown left the party disastrously demoralised. Most ministers, senior Congress leaders and even the PM are once again passing the buck for the party’s collapse to the Gandhis. The G-clan, however, has chosen to pick up the gauntlet. This election, which started on a positive note of development vs corruption, has been reduced to a war between dynasty and an individual. While Modi doesn’t miss a chance to attack the family, the Gandhis counter him with, “Bahut ho chuka hum par var, ab hum karenge Modi par palatvar (Enough is enough. Let Modi beware of our counter-offensive).” From media reports and opinion polls, it appears that Priyanka is fighting a losing battle. If Modi’s high-voltage publicity putsch can make a difference of 100 seats in favour of NDA, Congress leaders are confident that the First Daughter’s onslaught can save the party from sinking below the three-digit mark. In a dangerously personalised struggle, it is the future of both the dynasty and Modi that is more at stake than the destiny of India. For Congress, it’s once again a woman moment. It was led by two women for 34 years as against just five years by a man (Rajiv). Is the transition of a daughter into a political leader an omen for the future? If so, history will repeat itself sooner than later.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

State Polls Verdicts will make.... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/December 01, 2013

State Polls Verdicts Will Make and Mar the Destinies of National Leaders like Modi

The heads may belong to different Caesars, but the Congress and BJP are two sides of the same mintage. That is, at least, the perception if not the reality. The ascendants and descendants of the electoral zodiac have erased the amorphous line that divides both national parties. Personality cults and sycophancy have always constituted the Congress party’s political charter. Its generalissimos are unfailingly unapologetic about expressing their unflinching loyalty to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. They remain convinced that while the Family’s Charisma seizes the laurels, losses in the battle of the ballots are entirely caused by the infirmities of the local leadership. This contagion of belief has now affected the BJP. With votes yet to be counted in the five states, leaders of both parties have, in advance, started apportioning the credit and blame for expected losses and wins. Leaders chased by TV channels for sound bytes are obsessed with offering morsels of banal opinion even if they have to dine on their words later. Last week, journalists quizzed senior BJP leaders about the possible consequences of the electoral verdicts in the party. While asked about whom the credit to victory or shame in defeat in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh should go to, a saffron luminary was emphatic in his response—it would be a victory of both national and local sentiments. The second rung leadership echoed his views, making it obvious that a section of the central leadership is unwilling to give full credit to the BJP’s chief ministerial candidates like Vasundhara Raje Scindia and Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Disremembering that the party has been projecting Chouhan as a model chief minister along with Narendra Modi, its wannabe leaders are competing with each other to give credit to the efficacy of the Modi as the Ace of Trumps. Modi acolytes have taken over the reins of the party, and have ensured that he gets more exposure in poll-bound states than local leaders. In Delhi, all posters, hoardings and TV promos carry much bigger visuals of Modi compared to CM candidate Harsh Vardhan’s. In contrast, the Congress, for the first time, has refrained from projecting the Gandhis or the Prime Minister as the face of their election offensive.

A divided and ambitious BJP leadership is playing a Sun Tzu-ian game of posturing and positioning. Diehard Modi followers feel that thanks to his magic, the party would win all the four states where the Gujarat Chief Minister has addressed over 50 meetings. Though the party had given a list of over 30 star campaigners to the Election Commission for these states, Modi topped the charts, followed by Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and Smriti Irani. In case the BJP storms home in all the four, the spoils of war would go to Modi and not the chief ministers. He would be declared the sole hero of the 2014 electoral semi-finals. Statistics would spell the numerical narrative on crowds drawn by Modi and his fiery speeches, as having generated a massive wave in the BJP’s favour to throw out incumbent Congress chief ministers. In case the BJP retains Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh while snatching Rajasthan away from its foe, the credit would go to Modi because it would be projected as a mandate for him for leading from the front. Internal opinion polls will be pulled out of the party’s escritoires to show that it was Modi who converted a lost cause in Chhattisgarh into an emphatic victory. If local party scuttlebutt is to be believed, the BJP plans to organise a special victory procession in Delhi, with Modi as the monarch. If the BJP is trounced in Delhi, however, the absence of a charismatic local leadership and a divided party leadership would be blamed. In case of a tie where the Congress and BJP win two states each, party logicians would dissemble that the absence of local organisational skills and the selection of unpopular candidates were the main reasons for defeat. Meanwhile, another section of the BJP feels that if the party fails to win Delhi and Chhattisgarh, Modi would be held responsible for the electoral Waterloo blaming his aggressive style and personality for polarising voters and scaring off fence-sitters. Since Modi is omnipresent on the battlefields of all the states, his acceptability and political allure are under greater scrutiny than that of his immediate rival, Rahul Gandhi.

The BJP has taken victory for granted while the Congress has confined itself to projecting the state elections as a mandate for the local leadership. Both Rahul and Sonia Gandhi have addressed less than half the number of Modi’s public rallies. They have realised that the Family may keep the party together, but is in no position to ensure victory, doomed by the pathetic performance of the UPA government led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The Congress High Command’s singular objective is to ensure that the Modi Mantra is extensively erased with the use of massive election funding and by bringing together all warring factions together. The Gandhis and their guild of loyalists feel that if the Congress wins two of the four states (excluding Mizoram), it would paralyse the Modi juggernaut and pave the way for UPA III. In the endgame, a score of 4-all would make Modi the invincible captain, but a 2-2 would be advantage Congress. Hence, as the die is perched at the edge of the precipice of prediction, the BJP has much more to lose than the Gandhis by making Modi its commander-in-chief. Elections verdicts will not decide the fate of local governments. But they will make and mar the destinies of national leaders like Modi.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Frequent denials no way ..... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/June 02, 2013

Frequent denials no way to counter perception of rift between PM and Sonia

Normally, offence is not considered the best defence. When it comes to Indian politics, the defence is now proving to be a cardinal offence. Frequent denial has often proved to be the most ineffective weapon to erase a strong perception. For the past few months, both the Congress and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have been strongly denying the perceived rift between the two on many political and administrative issues. But the perception refuses to die. It keeps popping up whenever Manmohan or Congress President Sonia Gandhi speaks on any public platform or interact with a captive media. The Prime Minister had to undergo the agony of denial again while returning from his trip to Japan and Thailand. Here’s what he had to offer when asked about the discord: “In all truthfulness, there are no differences between me and the Congress president. We are together on almost every issue and wherever consultations are needed, I consult the president.” Neither the correspondent nor the PM clarified the issues on which the duo agreed to disagree in the past year. Since Manmohan rarely opens his mouth or expresses his opinion, it is left to either his official or private spin doctors to explain. They have been giving him full credit for all the correct decisions and passing the buck to Congress regarding any incorrect decision taken by the government.

But the debate over the rift between the head of the government and the chief of the UPA’s leading party has raised a question mark on the relationship between Congress and the government. If there are no differences as the Prime Minister claimed, it leads one to draw the conclusion that either he simply follows the high command’s diktat, or that Sonia is unconcerned about implications of decisions and actions taken by the government.

In a healthy democracy, it is diversity of views that give institutions credibility. Even those who support the Congress are aghast at the denial mode in which the party and the government are in. They feel the PM would have gained politically by admitting that there have been healthy differences between him and the party on various issues that were resolved after discussions. After all, it is the party and the PM who won the elections. The reality is that the Congress without a Gandhi is a humungous ship without a captain. The party, under Sonia, improved its tally from 112 seats in 1999 to 206 in 2009. She was able to deliver victory on the basis of political alignments and promises made on the manifesto. During the past nine years, however, the government has ignored many promises in the manifesto concerning the social sector.

According to insiders, the truth lies somewhere between the two extremes. The Opposition has charged that there are two power centres in the country and the PM is remote-controlled from 10 Janpath, the official residence of the Congress president. Both the Congress and PM lack the courage to admit that there have been times when they haven’t shared the same view on many issues. Even recently, the PM took the diametrically opposite view to the party’s on the dastardly massacre of top Congress leaders by Red terrorists in Chhattisgarh. Both Manmohan and Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde assured the state’s BJP government of their full support and termed the assault a terrorist attack. But the Congress president and vice-president Rahul Gandhi were extremely aggressive in their tone during their meeting with Chief Minister Raman Singh and almost asked for his resignation. It was the state’s chief secretary Sunil Kumar who saved the situation by accepting responsibility. On dealing with Naxalism, both the Congress and government have been speaking in two voices. When he was home minister, P Chidambaram had ignored the advice of his party colleagues to treat Leftist extremism as a mere economic issue. He always treated it as an attack on democracy, and the party has now veered around to his view.

It is not just on Maoist terror that there appears to be a divide between the party and the government. It is a well-known fact that the government’s major concern has been to promote everything that brings in foreign investment and creates a favourable climate for Indian corporates to flourish. It is the same policy, which Manmohan followed as finance minister under P V Narasimha Rao; the party lost the election in 1996. Sonia has learnt lessons from that debacle and would like the government to follow a policy which ensures equitable distribution of growth while also inviting massive foreign investment. A quiet anger is simmering in party circles about the way various popular schemes like the Food Security Bill, Women’s Reservation legislation and the proposed minorities quota have been sabotaged from within the government. Even on foreign affairs, the Congress is not happy with the way the PMO has been dealing with Pakistan and China. On resignations of Union ministers Pawan Bansal and Ashwani Kumar, individuals within the government—and not the party—were telling the media about the disagreement between the PM and Sonia. As the countdown for the General Elections begins, more scuttlebutt would be coming out about the growing chasm between the political establishment and the government leadership. The Congress is determined to prove the point that its objective is not to save the government any cost; its mission is to save the party. In the past, the question of a rift never arose because, since 1978 it was either a Gandhi or the same person who headed both government and party. In 2013, the Congress is more dependent on the Gandhis than ever. Instead of denying the divide, it would enhance the credibility and status of the PM if he admits to genuine conflicts and concedes that it is the will of the Gandhis which will always prevail.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

The Message is the Dialogue../ Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ November 11, 2012

The message is the dialogue: We crash together, and the first family is in charge

Dialogue without direction is as meaningless as a debate without debaters. However, if dialogue is an excuse to get warring, egoistic individuals to break bread together, it can yield dividends. When 66 honchos—small and big, young and old with mini and mega mindsets—assembled last week in the salubrious environment created by Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda in Surajkund, Haryana, it didn’t turn out to be either a clash of the titans or intellectual gymnastics. It wasn’t meant to be, as the aroma of the delicious five-course lunch served amid the strains of piano music made it clear. The rendezvous was only a move to prove that the Gandhi Parivar was fully in control of both government and the party. Congress President Sonia Gandhi was full of confidence, and Rahul Gandhi symbolised the vital paradigm shift in the ruling establishment. 

The assembly was appropriately titled  ‘Samvad Baithak’, in which those who draw political lines and agendas, and those who execute them were present. The samvad (dialogue), however, was confined to only a select few. Officially, the meeting was expected to review the implementation of the 2009 Congress election manifesto. But it turned out to be more of a six-and-a-half hour seminar in which speeches were made, but no critical questions were raised or answered. Instead of going through the structured dialogue in three sessions—on the manifesto, politics and economics—the meeting became a platform for senior leaders to display their ignorance. However, the Samvad Baithak—the first-of-its-kind in recent Congress history—proved beyond doubt that when other political parties were engulfed in mismanagement, the Congress was walking united, cohesively and purposefully. The baithak (a favourite RSS term) has all the ingredients of a strong organisation. It has the right soochi (list), perfect soochna ( information) and meaningful soch ( thought). The Surajkund baithak may have failed to make any impact on voters, but it reduced the gap between the government and the party. The Congress may have lost the battle of perception but it has won the hearts of its demoralised middle-level leaders and directionless workers. The tone, tenor and content of the speeches made it clear that it wasn’t meant only to bring the government closer to the party. 

As Sonia made it clear that it is the party that wins an election and forms the government, the baithak generated powerful signals for an early election. For those who ceremoniously drove to the venue in a tourist bus, the message was clear—they have to drive or crash together. But if the Samvad was meant to give voice and stature to Congress GenNext, it hardly served its purpose. Rahul was the only person who made a purposeful intervention, when his speech exceeded the allotted time of five minutes. The half-a-dozen young ministers with independent charge or Cabinet rank were more conspicuous by their mandatory presence. The recently promoted Sachin Pilot, Jitender Singh, Ajay Maken and Jyotiraditya Scindia were hardly called upon. Maybe they were under the impression that the baithak was just another Cabinet meeting where only elders speak. With the average age of the Cabinet 65 years, these future leaders were more than elated with the place of pride their leader Rahul got. One said, “Where was the need for us to add anything when he was speaking for all of us?” Another explained: “We have been brought up in an environment in which young members of the family are advised to respect and hear the elders out, even if they are not in tune with your thinking.” Even aggressive interventionists like Jairam Ramesh, Salman Khurshid and Ambika Soni played the role of fence-sitters, not ministers.

Contrary to the current perception, Rahul did set the tone and made the ministers listen to his discovery of a paradigm shift in the Indian political and administrative system.  He wondered how the RTI Act, gifted by the UPA government, could be used effectively by its opponents and the judiciary to enforce transparency. Rahul wondered why the system can’t be made more responsive by eliminating excess bureaucratic intervention. Finance Minister P Chidambaram revealed that he was initiating action against an official who had sat on a file for over 50 days. Surprisingly, his powerful presentation on the economy went over the heads of many, including senior colleagues.

But the participants were riled over the beating that the party and the government is getting from social media and civil society. Over a dozen participants, including senior ministers and leaders like Kapil Sibal, Veerappa Moily, Ashwani kumar, Manish Tewari, Digvijaya Singh, and Jagdish Tytler felt that the party hasn’t been able to use social media effectively to counter its opponents. Moily was insistent that the cadres should be instructed to mark their presence on all social media platforms and make them a political propaganda vehicle. He revealed that over 30 per cent of the sitting Congress MPS have won from rich and urban constituencies, where social media is important. When it comes to discussing the media, most meetings end abruptly without a consensus. So did the baithak. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was told to take the copter back ‘before 4.30 pm, since the weather wouldn’t be conducive afterwards’. He happily flew away, to host another dinner to bring allies like the Samajawadi Party and the National Conference closer, even if his own party was not able to close the distance between dialogue and perception.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Portraying Pranab Departure as Good Riddance.../Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard, July 01, 2012

POWER & POLITICS

Portraying Pranab Departure as Good Riddance May be a Costly Mistake

Logic and consistency are not virtues in politics. Changing their response in accordance with the varying tunes of political music is a popular vice with most politicians. Judging from the dialectical response to Pranab Mukherjee’s three-year tenure as finance minister, it is evident that the UPA leadership — including the prime minister — would like to forget his “valuable contribution” to the government. Ever since he demitted office, Pranabda is being dubbed as the destroyer of the India Growth story. Rarely in Indian political history have both Marxists and markets cheered a minister’s exit. In Pranab’s case, elation reigned both in Gopalan Bhavan and Dalal Street.

What is striking is the attempts on part of the Prime Minister’s Office, corporate leaders and promoters of foreign investors to form a coalition of Pranabda baiters. Once they lived in awe of the man who listened to them patiently, but refused to be led by them. Pranabda as finance minister stood his ground with conviction. He followed the concept of collective responsibility of the Cabinet, both in spirit and in law. Now, Congress spokespersons have invented a fancy lexicon to disown his legacy. The articulate Manish Tewari coined a phrase to redefine the principle of collective responsibility; when asked to explain why the PM also shouldn’t share the blame for unpalatable decisions taken by Pranab, he admitted that though it was a matter of collective responsibility, there was also something known as “differentiated responsibility” which held the Prime Minister back from interfering in finance ministry matters.

Nothing could have been more damning for the UPA’s presidential candidate than being held directly responsible for leaving the country in an economic mess. If there weren’t a captive electoral college, P A Sangma wouldn’t need to speak on the intellectual infirmity of his opponent. The backers and the promoters of the new, though temporary, finance minister are doing it in abundance. Instead of being projected as the most ideal and iconic choice for the country’s highest post, Pranabda is being painted with two different brushes. The Prime Minister, in a letter to the former finance minister, said: “We are confident that our country and the people will continue to benefit from your wisdom, knowledge and decades of experience in public life.” Within 24 hours of writing it, the PMO and other babus made official and unofficial comments that left none is doubt that Pranab would be made the scapegoat for an ailing economy. For the Congress and the PMO, the former finance minister was a master of good politics but the villain of bad economics.

The conflict between the PM and his former finance minister has been a matter of speculation so far. But now, when Pranabda is set to become the constitutional head of the country, the current strategy of the powers-that-be to downsize his stature and ability is fraught with dangerous consequences. According to sources close to him, Pranab will not be a pushover President. If he was assertive about his powers as finance minister, he is going to be even firmer while performing his constitutional responsibilities. He enjoys more numerical support from political parties than the UPA and the Prime Minister himself. He may not have had the trappings and authority of a prime minister, but Pranabda always behaved like one for the past eight years. Unlike previous ministers who have been elevated to the Rashtrapati Bhavan— besides being both more experienced as well as a maverick — Pranab is not one of those faceless sycophants who can easily be bulldozed by the Prime Minister. If some ministers or Congress leaders continue to paint Pranab as an incompetent minister, he may carry the ignominy with him to the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

The relationship between the Prime Minister and the President is so delicate that its continuity depends on respect and full faith in each other. Even the best of political friends like Jawaharlal Nehru and Rajendra Prasad fell out because of ego issues. The Rajiv Gandhi-Zail Singh confrontation almost created a constitutional crisis because Rajiv didn’t give Zail Singh the respect which he expected from the prime minister. Fortunately for Indian democracy, barring the exception of Rajendra Prasad, all previous Presidents have been either outstanding individuals or weak politicians. All of them bowed to the advice and suggestions of prime ministers, who have either been popular leaders or were backed by powerful parties. But Pranabda will be the exception. Not only does he enjoy vast political support cutting across ideological boundaries, he has also been the boss of the current Prime Minister and many others in the government. If Pranab, after moving into the Raisina Hills palace, decides to prove once again that he is the wisest of them all, it will be an ominous signal for the government. It is better to send him to Rashrapati Bhavan as a guide, friend and philosopher of the government, rather than portraying him as good riddance.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Sonia Returns to Find New Leadership_Prabhu Chawla/The Sunday Standard/November 06, 2011

Power & Politics

Recovered and Refreshed
Sonia Returns to find New Leadership

When Congress President Sonia Gandhi raises her eyebrows in the party, the Government goes into topspin. After convalescence, a rejuvenated Sonia has got back to basics. Those waiting to see her for months were shocked to receive phone calls from her office. Union ministers, chief ministers and allies were summoned to 10 Janpath for an exchange of views. Though most termed them courtesy calls, the short meetings meant business. Sonia was meeting regional party leaders and Central ministers like Sharad Pawar, Praful Patel and Dinesh Trivedi after months. She also met a few chief ministers and state Congress leaders. Since she has avoided attending formal meetings of the Congress Working Committee and the Core group, these visits left none in doubt that a massive restructuring of the party and the Government is imminent. According to insiders, the interaction was one-sided with the visitors eagerly apprising her of their problems. Many returned with the impression that a change in the top leadership of the Government and the party cannot be ruled out. The corridors of power vibrate with the fear of ministers and civil servants who keep discussing Sonia’s new mission and methods to retrieve UPA’s lost ground. With elections due in five important states in the next four months, she has to change the political discourse and agenda. Her concern is also to retain the allies who have been ignored by the Government and the party so far. Moreover, she has to redefine the contours of political architecture in a such way that Rahul and his team can walk in without fear of getting lost in the new structure.

Sonia isn’t doing anything unusual. She is only following the script written by her husband Rajiv Gandhi and mother-in-law Indira. Jawaharlal Nehru ensured his daughter would replace him. He promoted Indira as the most fearless Congress leader with a mind of her own, while other senior leaders were painted as conventional and conservative. She, in turn, introduced son Sanjay Gandhi, and then Rajiv as the face of Congress GenNext with the modern mind. She discarded those who could have challenged dynastic succession. All the Gandhis followed one golden rule—if the things go wrong in the party or the government, find the right time to strike back by finding the right scapegoat. This time, Sonia’s concern is the Government’s sagging image and a paralysed Congress.

In normal circumstances, the buck would have stopped with her. But of late, the impression is being created that she had little to do with governance and even less with party affairs, as she believes in delegation of power. She and her trusted advisers are convinced that the current Government leaders have little at stake in the party. With the majority of Cabinet ministers, including the Prime Minister, having crossed 70 years of age, none are bothered about the impact of their performance and the internal shenanigans on the party’s poll prospects.

With new leakages appearing in the rusted pipes of power, the Congress is the main target of the Opposition and civil society. Sonia’s concern seems to be that the party is being blamed for the Government’s sins. Earlier, her spin doctors were able to shift the blame on to the Government and plant stories in the media that the party’s views and the Government’s were not the same on petrol price hikes, the 2G scam, the CWG scandal and on confrontations with the Opposition and civil society. By writing letters to Anna Hazare directly, Sonia tried to distance herself from the actions of some Congress ministers. For many years, the Congress chief got credit for the good work done by the Government. But the blame on what went wrong was placed at the Prime Minister’s doorstep. Full credit is given to both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi for RTI, MGNREGA, farmers’ loan write-offs, reservation for women and the minorities and other social welfare schemes. The Government is blamed for rising inflation and corruption. The loyalists’ whispering campaign is: ‘Ganga — the government— was dirty but Gangotri — the source —is absolutely pure.’

But now people are not willing to spare Sonia for the Government’s follies that they believe is hers. Team Anna has already announced if the Lokpal Bill is not passed this Winter Session, they will campaign against the Congress. Sonia’s options are limited. She has to project a new leader who has an alternative agenda for the poor and the middle class. Her challenge is to bring the focus back to aam aadmi. At the moment the Prime Minister and his A-Team are struggling to save the sinking Euro Zone and winning accolades abroad, leaving it to the Congress leadership to face the brickbats. Sonia’s latest Formula One model is aimed to reverse the slide. prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com

Race Course Road/The Sunday Standard Magazine, October 2, 2011

Sonia Leaves Cabinet Illness to the Doctor

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may pooh pooh all charges of growing dissension within his Cabinet, but the conduct of his senior colleagues leaves little to the imagination. Most are not on speaking terms; they communicate only during Cabinet meetings or through written notes opposing each other. Last week, the Congress party was pushed into a corner when a note written by a junior finance ministry official—concerning Home Minister P Chidambaram and spectrum pricing—to the Prime Minister was leaked. Both Manmohan and Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee made all the right noises defending Chidambaram. Pranabda even called his “valued colleague” Chidambaram from the US, as well as from New Delhi after he returned, but apparently did not have the inclination or time for a face-to-face meeting. He refused to make any statement on the note, even as other ministers and Congress functionary came out openly in the beleaguered home minister’s support. It was evident that even Congress President Sonia Gandhi is aware of the soured chemistry between the two UPA top guns. When matters careened out of control, she decided to play mediator. But Sonia discovered it would be calamitous to summon both to discuss the contentious note together. Perhaps she knew confabulations would be impossible with both Mukherjee and Chidambaram present at the same meeting. She didn’t want a third party around either. So, she decided to listen to each one individually. It is not clear whether Sonia was already in possession of the voluminous correspondence between the PMO and the finance ministry on the issue because both Chidambaram and Pranabda spent hardly 20 minutes each with her. It was their first meeting with Sonia after her surgery. According to insiders, both exchanged pleasantries with her and gave a short brief on the controversy. Chidambaram insisted that the finance ministry take some sort of action to remove the cloud of suspicion hanging over him. But Pranabda did not budge. Instead, he sent a long letter to the PMO supporting his ministry. Sensing a major confrontation, Sonia has now left it to the Prime Minister to clean up the mess and restrain his ministers from washing dirty linen in public.

Steel frame on show in America

PMO officials were baffled to see former foreign secretary and now India’s ambassador to the US, Nirupama Rao, in New York during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit. Rao was not only present at the airport to welcome Manmohan, she also made it a point to attend all non-official functions held for the Prime Minister or External Affairs Minister S M Krishna. Normally, the Indian ambassador is not a part of India’s official UN delegation during the visit of the Prime Minister. Rao may not have contributed to the deliberations on Manmohan’s speech at the United Nations General Assembly, but she did provide gracious company to Gursharan Kaur, the Prime Minister’s wife. Rao sat next to her all through the Prime Minister’s speech. Along with her husband, Rao also checked into the same hotel in which other dignitaries were staying. She wasn’t the only senior Indian official hanging around in New York; around six Cabinet ministers also were present. Around half a dozen senior babus also found their way into Manhattan on one pretext or the other. It is evident that as the political leadership gets weaker, bureaucracy is regaining its steel frame once again.

Rahul sticks to comfort zone

Rahul Gandhi’s final destination may be 7 Race Course Road, but for the time being he has decided to stay away from India’s great plains after the rather rowdy welcome he received at a Delhi hospital following the High Court blasts. Instead, he has chosen to visit only those states which have Baba-friendly chief ministers. After keeping a low-profile for a few weeks, Rahul surfaced in Gangtok, Sikkim, last week to meet earthquake victims. Since he wasn’t entitled to official transport for what was a purely political visit, it was left to Sikkim Chief Minister Pawan Chamling to organise a helicopter for Rahul’s visit to the forward areas. Normally, the Prime Minister or Sonia Gandhi visits areas hit by natural calamities. Since neither could go, the Gandhi scion stood in. But Rahul sprang another surprise by landing in Srinagar without a formal programme. He visited the university in jeans and a kurta. He also followed the age-old Gandhi tradition of paying a visit to Hazratbal shrine. Rahul was the first Gandhi to go to the shrine after his father Rajiv visited Hazratbal in 1986. There is no record of Sonia ever having gone there. But Rahul wasn’t able to visit the Kheer Bhawani temple where his grandmother Indira Gandhi would pray without fail. But Rahul’s Kashmiri pedigree did help him in connecting with the local youth.

All leaks and no work in UPA

With the wicked leaks on the 2G Scam inflicting serious wounds on many UPA ministers, their babus have chosen to remain totally neutral and stay away from the corridors of power. For the past few weeks, no bureaucrat has sent any important file to their ministers for a decision, only routine files. Even senior secretaries have stopped looking at the Congress manifesto to draw up notes for legislation promised by the party. Over a dozen important ministers dealing with key social and infrastructure ministries haven’t been able to finalise a single note for the Cabinet to take a final call. Most of them don’t even go to work, visiting office only to meet important visitors. Chief ministers have stopped calling on Union ministers, including the Prime Minister, because they don’t get any response. Even the meetings of the Committee of Secretaries that handles inter-ministerial disputes have been rare as nothing is brought for discussion. The agenda for the Cabinet is shrinking faster than the image of the UPA government.

Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ July 17, 2011

The Manmohan

Reshuffle is change India can’t believe in

It is better to refrain from taking a decision if all it does is reflect the decision-maker’s indecisive state of mind. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s belated decision to honour his promise to deliver an expansive Cabinet reshuffle turned out to be yet another exercise in futility. He was under no obligation or compulsion to change the look and composition of his largest-ever Council of Ministers. Yet he dropped seven and added eight. After the much hyped rejig, the average age of the UPA II Cabinet climbed from 60 to 65. The new-look Government is neither younger in the biological sense nor more promising in terms of delivery. Unfortunately, re-engineering the Union Cabinet is perceived as the best road map for better governance. In practice, this has hardly ever worked. Most Cabinet expansions or contractions in the past have been motivated more by political expediency and less by the performance of individuals. Do the prime minister and the Congress party really believe that dropping ministers like Murli Deora, Manohar Singh Gill, B K Handique and Dayanidhi Maran will make the government smell like roses? Or by moving Salman Khurshid from water resources to law and Jairam Ramesh from environment to rural development, the Cabinet will look lily white? If such is the case, they have grossly underestimated the scrutiny skills of the Indian electorate. From the nature of changes made in the Cabinet, it appears that the dropped ministers are responsible for the plummeting credibility of the Government and a collapsing economy. It wasn’t even a game of musical chairs as it lacked the consistency of musical notes. Of the 32 Cabinet ministers, only two were shuffled. No minister handling infrastructure or the economy was moved. Did Manmohan Singh chose to retain S M Krishna—whose performance as foreign minister is pathetic—bowing to his decency, age, Savile Row tailoring and an Oxbridge accent? It was clear that a once-great economist-turned-politician-turned-prime minister, beaten down by scams, has decided to follow the beaten path.

For the past few weeks, establishment spin doctors have been hinting at a major overhaul to improve the prime minister’s personal image. Subtle hints were dropped about inducting new blood that was raring to deliver on many fronts. Admittedly, the economy is in a terrible shape. Inflation has almost crossed double digits. Global confidence in the India Story is fast evaporating. Foreign Direct Investment has fallen by over 30 per cent: from $27.3 billion in 2008 to just $19.42 billion in 2011. Even the outflow of FDI from India is in sharp decline, which means Indian industrial barons dare not continue their global acquisition spree. According to figures released by the government, the index of industrial production plunged to a mere 5.6 per cent in May this year, as against 8.5 per cent during the same month last year. Even the growth of car sales was restricted to 1.62 per cent last month—the lowest ever during the past 27 months. No infrastructure sector is doing well. For example, the construction of nationalhighways today has declined to less than 6 km per day as against 11 km in 2004 during the NDA regime. The petroleum sector has failed to live up to expectations. Finally, the number of people living below the poverty line has risen despite the nation growing at an average of over 8 per cent.

The UPA Government’s pathetic image is not due to the bad performance of those who have been shown the door, it is entirely due to policy paralysis and aimless political drift. When Pranab Mukherjee, the government’s most productive asset, is diverted to handle over 50 Group of Ministers appointed by the prime minister to resolve vague issues, it is the finance ministry that ultimately suffers. If Mukherjee is sent to deal with troublesome UPA allies, hostile opposition parties and truculent civil society leaders, obviously he will not have the time or energy to mentor India’s economic administration. No wonder, the government now doles out Rs 8,000 crore per day as interest on the money it has borrowed from the people. Government expenditure has risen from Rs 5 lakh crore in 2004 to over Rs 1,250 crore during the current fiscal year. If the prime minister and the Congress President are unable to handle political problems, Mukherjee should’ve been drafted as the Working President or Vice President of the Congress, and a full-time economist like Montek Singh Ahluwalia should’ve been appointed the finance minister. HRD Minister Kapil Sibal was doing an outstanding job by pushing badly- needed education reforms. For the past five months, he has been saddled with fire-fighting on the government’s behalf, leaving the education ministry at the mercy of babus—and both his ministries are suffering. Even Home Minister P Chidambaram is not comfortable at home. Though, he has done a commendable job, Chidambaram would, perhaps, make a better defence minister or external affairs minister. No doubt, the prime minister has chosen new faces, clear of any taint or political infirmity, but none of these can reverse the economic downturn or save the Government from daily judicial scrutiny. With no big message emerging from the Cabinet readjustment, it is clear that the prime minister lacks the will to shed the Non-Productive Assets (NPAs) of the UPA government. prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com