Modi will Create History .......Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/ November 09, 2014

Modi Will Create History if he Succeeds in Making People of Uttar Pradesh Accept a Gujju as Saviour

Poverty is often the petri dish of power. Uttar Pradesh is one of India’s most deprived states, but politically, the most powerful. Every seventh Lok Sabha MP is from there. Before Narendra Modi became the PM, eight of India’s 13 PMs were from UP. Since Independence, they have collectively ruled the nation for 47 years. For Modi, the ninth PM to be elected from UP, the state’s political numerology is significant. Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the BJP’s first PM, because one-third of BJP Lok Sabha members came from UP. In 2014, the party won a record number 0f 71 seats. Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first PM, and Modi, the present PM, are both from the state. Other PMs who were launched in UP were Indira Gandhi, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Rajiv Gandhi, Charan Singh, Chandrasekhar and Vishwanath Pratap Singh.

Last week, various parties and leaders, including Modi, initiated moves aimed at acquiring dominance over UP. Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, fearing the total decimation of his outfit, decided to bring the ossified Janata Parivar factions together, hoping that it would keep their traditional vote bank intact. The RSS has also scaled up its activities in UP, with its top leadership spending more time in the state, deploying additional forces to consolidate its base and capture new pastures. Last week, the PM chose to stay overnight in his constituency, Varanasi, as part of an unfolding plan to consolidate his grip over the state. He chose to represent the holy city because it is a symbol of Hindu heritage and one of the most sacred of Gangetic destinations. Aware of the fact that he is the first non-UP leader to become the PM after getting a handsome mandate from Varanasi’s voters, Modi has decided to return the favour. He doesn’t belong to any of its dominant castes such as Brahmins, Thakurs and upper caste Kayasthas like Shastri, but it hasn’t stopped Modi from getting the new Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar (who is likely to be elected to the Rajya Sabha from Uttar Pradesh within 24 hours of his swearing-in). This reflects his intention to raise the level of UP’s participation in his Cabinet. It is for the first time that the PM, the home minister and the defence minister, all represent Uttar Pradesh in Parliament. Though both Modi and Parrikar aren’t from UP, along with Rajnath Singh, they make a formidable troika that can demolish all hostile political combinations. 

With the induction of Parrikar and other ministers, UP will have the maximum representation in the Central government—Uma Bharti, Kalraj Mishra, Maneka Gandhi, Santosh Gangwar, Gen. V K Singh and Sanjeev Kumar Balyan. Previously, such a situation had happened only during Morarji Desai’s reign, during which he inducted four Cabinet ministers from UP, including Chaudhury Charan Singh as the home minister. Rajiv Gandhi ensured that powerful leaders like Narain Dutt Tiwari, V P Singh, K C Pant and Mohsina Kidwai were given prominent positions. Barring G B Pant, who was India’s first Home Minister from UP (then the United Provinces), it was only Charan Singh who held the honour. Additionally, for the first time, three of the five members of the all-powerful Cabinet Committee on Security represent Uttar Pradesh. It is not just a coincidence that they enjoy the full confidence of the RSS leadership. Although Modi has his eyes fixed on Bihar and UP since almost half the Lok Sabha seats the party won are from these two states, it is the only in UP where his twin mantra of Hindutva and development can deliver handsome dividends. On the face of it, UP is caste-ridden, communally polarised and is bereft of any national leader. But for a large number of aspirational UP-ites, Modi has projected himself as the messiah of modernisation, a liberal Hindu and a leader with nationwide appeal.

If the future contours and content of BJP’s Operation UP is an indication, Modi would be spending about 20 days every year in the state. He has already established a full-fledged office equipped with state-of-the-art technology to monitor not only Varanasi but also the entire state. A special cell is to be set up in the PMO under a senior officer who would keep a real time watch on all developments in Uttar Pradesh. But Modi’s trump card appears to be the Ganga. By putting Uma Bharti, a Ganga devotee, in charge of the river rejuvenation project, he expects to influence the voters of 45 Lok Sabha seats and of over 200 Assembly seats situated along and around Ganga’s path. UP is the only state in which the RSS, the Union government and the state BJP work in perfect coordination. While RSS workers identify relevant issues at the ground level and present their wish list to their leadership, the state unit of the BJP forwards it to Om Mathur, the Central leader in charge of Uttar Pradesh.

It was Amit Shah who chose Mathur, who had assisted him in the Gujarat and Maharashtra Assembly elections for the job. He is supported by a few trusted political aides from Gujarat and other states. In addition, all the infrastructure ministries have been instructed to pay special attention to pending projects in UP, give them the extra push to take off, and also pump in generous funds. Both Bharti and Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari have done a detailed study of various water- and road-related issues and will be spending their maximum time in the state. Urban Development Minister Venkaiah Naidu has been pushing for the development of the maximum number of smart cities in UP. If Gujarat was the laboratory for the Hindutva experiment, Modi is turning Uttar Pradesh into an exhibition venue to showcase his development agenda, while retaining Hindutva as the core ingredient. His plan is to restore the state’s national status it had lost in the churning of regional politics. Team Modi is now marketing the PM in the state as a leader who would replace titans like Nehru, Indira and Vajpayee. Modi will create political history again if he succeeds in making the Hindi-speaking and god-fearing UP bhaiyyas accept a Gujju as their saviour.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Blackmail by Regional Parties would end..... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/November 02, 2014

Blackmail by Regional Parties Would End If Both Gandhis and Modi Stick to Going it Alone

The Congress is out. But its High Command is not down yet. The BJP is in full command of national politics and its High Command is aiming very high. If the signals and posturing of the leadership of both the parties are indications, it is clear that they want to marginalise and manacle regional parties and caste satraps. According to insiders in both the parties, regional outfits in the election-bound states of Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand would not be invited to join as poll partners. Last week, Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi decided to assert his authority, as he is wont to sporadically. He directed his team to inform the Shibu Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha to take a walk or fall in line. At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his A-Team told Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray to show up at Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’ swearing-in ceremony or stay indoors forever. Now, by all indications, both national parties will fight the J&K polls without local allies like the Abdullahs-led National Conference (NC) and the Mufti Mohammed Sayeed-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

The signs are very clear that India is heading towards bi-polar politics in which regional parties would neither be able to dictate government formation nor dominate the agenda for governance. Modi took the lead by asserting his authority and advising his political operators to ensure that regional leaders did not decide the terms of engagement. Soon after winning an unprecedented mandate in the Lok Sabha elections, he snapped ties with ally Haryana Janhit Congress in Haryana and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra in the state polls. His idea was to test the winnability and acceptability of national leaders and parties in states where local castes and parochial parties played decisive roles. Taking a cue from the BJP, the Congress followed the same principle of setting terms and offering unacceptable deals to local partners. As the BJP dumped its 25-year ally in Maharashtra, the Congress made it impossible for the NCP to continue as a coalition partner. The past state polls turned out to be a battle between regional sentiments and national aspirations. The voters chose Modi and his mission. For the first time in history, the BJP formed the government, both in Haryana and Maharashtra.

Presently, the Congress’ decision on Jharkhand has far-reaching political consequences. By all indications, the tiny state is poised to vote for the saffron party, which has decided to fly solo. Perhaps, the Congress is imitating this principle in order to recapture its number two position and decimate the two regional outfits—JMM and BJP rebel Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha. Jharkhand has been most unstable since it became an independent state, carved out of Bihar. Of the three new states, it is the only economically regressive one, while Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh are performing superlatively.

The decision to marginalise regional parties appears to have been taken in the spindrift of the Modi Wave in the Lok Sabha elections. Before that, NaMo was on a binge to forge alliances with anyone and everyone to prove his growing acceptability. He encouraged defections. He struck deals with caste-based parties in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, even making tainted leaders a part of the grand alliance. Soon afterwards, he realised that the NDA won not because of these alliances but solely due to his charisma and promises. Similarly, the Congress felt that none of the regional parties could bring it additional votes, since it had lost its traditional bases already.

According to a recent review done by some prominent Congress leaders, it was found that the party has been shrinking ever since Rajiv Gandhi chose in the late 80s to partner with local parties in the north and the west. The trend started in 1990 in Uttar Pradesh, where the Congress struck an alliance with Mulayam Singh Yadav, and later with Mayawati. Since then, it has not won even 10 per cent of the total Assembly seats. In each state where it had local frenemies, its vote share and seats nose-dived. The loss of Maharashtra, a traditional Congress bastion, to the BJP has come as big shock. After its recent electoral reverses, the Congress has lost almost all the big states except Karnataka. It rules Kerala as part of a shaky alliance. The party cannot think of returning to power in any other southern state in the immediate future. In the east, it rules in picayune states, while regional parties control the major ones such as West Bengal, Odisha and Bihar. In the north, the forecast is grim. It has no hope in hell to return to power in Uttar Pradesh. It is pitted in a direct fight with the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Goa and Gujarat. If one surveys India’s political colours, no Congress rainbow shines over 300-odd Lok Sabha seats even though the party rules over a dozen tiny states. On the other hand, the BJP has gained access to over 100 seats, which it had never won in the past. Modi has already chosen a potent and dangerous slogan, which asks voters to vote for the party in the state, which is in sync with the ruling party at the Centre. The voters of both Haryana and Maharashtra fell for this promising postulate.

The Congress has now chosen to mimic the Modi Mantra. After two decades of flirtations with regional leaders to keep the BJP out of power, the Gandhi Parivar has realised that the strategy has boomeranged. Not only has the Congress been forced to vacate its political base for local parties, it also faces the danger of being reduced to a regional party led by a national leadership. Its High Command is not yet reconciled to the idea that a regional leader has acquired a pan-India status with a national following. National leaders like the Gandhis are about to become stateless leaders. The fear of losing their iconic halo has compelled the Gandhis to go it alone. Meanwhile, Modi’s aspirational mission to become a global leader is driving him to decimate his adversaries. If both the Gandhis and Modi stick to their guns, the country would be rid of the pox of political blackmail by regional parties and caste calculations. To achieve this, the Gandhis on their part will have to show the patience of a Sphinx.

prabhuchawla@ newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

The Gandhis can't Discover Key .... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/ October 26, 2014

The Gandhis Can’t Discover Key to Post-Modi Politics Until They Rediscover Themselves

“A leader is a dealer in hope.”—Napoleon Bonaparte

Even after 193 years of his death, the great French Emperor’s words resonate with ageless truth. Napoleon’s bon mot fits the current Congress leadership to the last vowel. The 129-year-old party is not only in a state of political paralysis, but its leadership too is unable to raise the banner of hope proclaiming its relevance on the political battlefield. When even senior leaders like former finance minister and invitee to the Congress Working Committee (CWC) P Chidambaram feel desperation, it is evident that the High Command is losing control over loyalists.

A casual visit to the Congress website makes it obvious that the party is living in the past. The homepage opens with a video of a bearded Rahul Gandhi wishing the nation Happy Diwali. So far so good. Most other sections only speak about the NDA government’s shortcomings. Another section deals with the history of Congress, with each page talking about the sacrifices made by its leaders, including the Gandhis. The site offers no roadmap for the future. The party is oblivious to the fact that the current political war is being fought in cyberspace and not on the dusty warfront in various states. Its workers would find no worthwhile plan or agenda on the website which could enthuse them to fight for the party. They are waiting for Sonia and Rahul to change not only their style and substance, but also the political company they have been keeping for the past few months.

The Gandhis are not known for their easy accessibility. But no partyman ever questioned this exclusivity, as long as the Family kept winning elections for them. Now partymen are urging them to step out of their SPG-protected fortresses and mingle with the grassroots. Ever since Congress’ defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, party workers have been expecting a major organisational surgery to rid the outfit of those who occupy high posts without accountability. Most Congress leaders are saddened by the fact that Sonia hasn’t thought it proper to call an emergency meeting of state and district-level officebearers to review the causes for the debacle and chart the future course. Four months have passed since the defeat, but not a single satrap’s head has rolled so far.

In the cacophony of dissenting voices lies the urgency of creating a new Congress under a leadership which can ensure ‘Achhe Din’ for party workers and leaders who can’t exist without power for long. Party members at all levels are seeking the answer to just one question: “Can Sonia and Rahul bring Achhe Din for them?” Humiliating defeats in Haryana and Maharashtra also seem to have shaken their faith in the Gandhis who once appeared infallible. It is not for the first time that the Family is under attack for its failure to lasso voters for the party. When the Congress lost many Assembly and Parliamentary elections in 1998-99, Sonia was accused of shrinking the party’s national base. Of late, the Gandhis have been facing virulent attacks for winning the minimum number of Lok Sabha seats and losing major states like Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra to the opposition.

Politics, too, has become a business for making profit by exploiting a premium brand. If over 100 ex-Congress MPs, MLAs and officebearers have left the party to join the BJP or any other party in the past six months, it reflects the plummeting faith in the High Command. The defectors forgot that it was Sonia Gandhi who brought the party to power in 2004 and 2009. Chidambaram’s comment made the headlines without making news. If in the past, many non-Gandhis could become party presidents, it could happen in the future too. But all matters regarding the authority and utility of the current and future leadership has to be resolved if Congress wants to survive in politics.

However, as usual, the Congress is all about the Gandhis and Gandhis alone. Chidambaram, too, spoke about them and expects that one day a non-Gandhi may helm the party. Technically, he is right. Constitutionally, he is absolutely correct. Of the 16 Congress presidents since 1947, 12 were non-Nehru-Gandhis. However, three Gandhis—Indira, Rajiv and Sonia— have occupied AICC presidency for 30 years out of 68. It is also a reality that the others were anointed party chiefs only after prior concurrence of a Gandhi or Nehru. It’s natural for Congress to be reconciled to the idea of a Gandhi-led Congress on a permanent basis, albeit with scary expectations. At the moment, both mother and son haven’t been able to provide either a slogan or an agenda to face the Modi juggernaut. The PM is flinging gauntlets by coining new slogans and announcing fresh schemes, whose merits cannot be opposed.

Veteran Congressmen are expecting the Family to deliver a brand new Congress. Each Gandhi created his or her own apparatus, apparatchiks and agenda soon after taking over as party boss. Indira got rid of the syndicate and coined ‘Garibi Hatao’. Even Sanjay Gandhi created an aggressive young brigade, which pushed his five-point programme that included family planning and environment. Rajiv Gandhi brought in his own team from the corporate sector and chose technology as his mission. But the Sonia and Rahul team haven’t come up with any inspiring epiphany to energise the party. Old loyalists remain entrenched in powerful bodies like the CWC. Out of its 40 members, over 20 have hardly ever won an election or carried the party to victory in their respective states. Most Pradesh Congress Committees have become centres of group rivalries. Unless the Gandhis rediscover themselves, their rediscovery of India’s post- Modi politics will never succeed. For the Congress, the Gandhi brand is like Reliance or Tata, which can go through many crests and troughs but will never vanish. They will always remain top of the mind. But like the Tatas and the Ambanis, the Gandhis have to sculpt a team which can repackage and market a 129-year-old brand, the Congress.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Swadeshi PM fills gap by Banking ...... Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/October 19,2014

Swadeshi PM Fills Gap By Banking on Videshi Men to Deliver Economic Idea of India

Humour has a habit of hiding truth by default. A remark made in jest by an economist friend resonated with reality. Can India’s Prime Minister or finance minister do without an Arvind in North Block? Lutyen’s Delhi is yet to reconcile to the disruptive political idea of Arvind Kejriwal. The eponymous syndrome has now affected even PM Narendra Modi, so much so that he simply could not ignore the talents of an economist with World Bank connections for running the Indian economy. North Block has been, of late, grappling to find an Arvind with the appropriate degree and connectivity to act as an accelerator or at least a stabiliser of India’s growth trajectory. Both economic and political observers are keenly monitoring the movements and appointments of key advisors and officials at the Centre. They expect a bureaucratic establishment with a significantly new look in line with the new dispensation’s thinking. Last week, Modi decided to import from Washington DC, Arvind Subramanian as India’s 12th Chief Economic Advisor (CEA). The chair has been lying vacant ever since the UPA government appointed Raghuram Rajan as the RBI governor.

(From left) Arvind Subramanian, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Kaushik Basu and Shankar Acharya

But all Arvinds do not lead such a charmed life. On the same day, Modi shunted out Finance Secretary Arvind Mayaram from North Block to the little known Patel Bhawan as Tourism Secretary. It is for the first time that a Finance Secretary has been transferred to such a relatively insignificant ministry. At the same time, the PM overlooked the claims of Arvind Panagariya, a fellow Gujarati and a foreign-educated economist who is the toast of the saffron chatterati class. Panagariya was the frontrunner for the CEA’s post and was backed by credible economists like Jagdish Bhagwati. But the PM chose a South Indian Arvind instead, whose spoken language is listed as Hindi over others. Earlier, Arvind Virmani had served as CEA from 2007-09.

On a serious note, Subramanian’s appointment raises an issue about the essential qualifications for the appointment of a key government advisor. Modi is the first homegrown leader to wear his Swadeshi credentials on his sleeve. He speaks in an Indian language and promotes Indian ideas and icons. But the compulsion of global connectivity has forced the Swadeshi politician to depend on a World Bank/IMF-pedigree economist to carry forward his growth model. So far the PM has shown a different style and approach in running the government. When it came to putting together a team for economic reforms, however, he has followed the formula set by predecessors, from Rajiv Gandhi to Manmohan Singh, of looking for external experts.

Subramanian is one of the most respectable global economists. It is not a coincidence that Modi decided to limit his choice to a group which has been connected with the Brentwood institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). In fact, barring Bimal Jalan, the former RBI governor, and Deepak Nayyar, the former V-C of Jawaharlal Nehru University, all the CEAs who came later were actively associated with the World Bank or IMF. Even Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who served as CEA to Manmohan Singh (a former CEA himself) when he was P V Naransimha Rao’s finance minister, was a nominee of Washington-based banks. Later on, economists like Shankar Acharya, Ashok Lahiri, Kaushik Basu and Raghuram Rajan, too, were associated with the Fund banks before being appointed as CEA. The process of borrowing people from overseas started in the early 1990s, when the finance ministers of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh were chosen from among economists who had worked for the IMF, World Bank or other international financial institutions. As one of the desi Leftist economists put it, “It appears that we have an unwritten agreement with the World Bank and IMF that India would keep one of their representatives in North Block to keep a watch on things. Afterwards, they all return to Washington after retirement.”

Subramanian is not an exception. An author of numerous books, the 54-year-old is currently working as a Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Earlier he was associated with the IMF as an assistant director in the research department. He is known more as a trade economist than one with the expertise needed to manage the macroeconomic issues confronting India. He has written extensively on WTO matters and India’s policy on World Trade. He has been critical of India’s stand in the WTO on food subsidy. He had also chastised NDA’s first interim budget. Modi has shown magnanimity in appointing him in order to get a contrarian view on his own economic philosophy. But some economists have raised questions about Subramanian’s suitability for India, which needs to put its internal monetary and fiscal policies in place. If Modi’s eyes are set on increasing the nation’s share in international trade, then Subramanian is perhaps the best bet. But the question is, why were macroeconomists like Subir Gokarn, the former RBI deputy governor, and Urjit Patel, the current deputy governor, ignored? Though both have foreign degrees and IMF and World Bank connections, they were found not wired enough abroad. According to government insiders, Subramanian was picked because Modi is looking to play an important role in dictating the direction of the global economic agenda, like Manmohan did during his first tenure as Prime Minister.

The appointment of Subramanian and Rajiv Mehrishi as the new Finance Secretary, along with a new Coal Secretary indicate that Modi is not only shaking up the Civil Services, but is also giving it a new shape. During the past four weeks, he has ordered the reshuffle of over 40 joint secretaries and about a dozen secretaries. He has even overturned Manmohan’s directive, which made it mandatory for the Cabinet Secretary to consult the minister concerned before appointing any secretary or joint secretary in his ministry. Now the PM alone chooses the secretaries. He even holds regular review meetings with them. He wants them all to communicate with him directly. Since Modi has made development his mission, he is discovering the tools and personnel who can deliver his idea of ‘Swachh and Swasth Bharat’ (A Clean and Healthy India). Perhaps he is not able to get indigenous people qualified enough to serve as his companions in Vikas Yatra. Modi appears to be filling the talent deficit gap by importing skills for now. So far he has been a campaigner, not a crusader. In the next few weeks, India may see a fully constructed Modi Sarkar in place, with or without the help of videshi men and material.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

By Winning Assemblies, PM aims, ..... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/October 12, 2014

By Winning Assemblies, PM Aims to Decimate Regional Chiefs and Capture Rajya Sabha

Normally, after winning a war, losing a few minor battles shouldn’t bother a warrior. But PM Narendra Modi and his trusted party chief Amit Shah are treating the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana as yet another war to be won in order to consolidate their control over India’s political market. If the colour and character of their campaign are indications, it is a fight between Modi and the rest—it’s Lok Sabha election redux, with the BJP projecting NaMo as its only candidate in all the 288 and 90 Assembly seats in Maharashtra and Haryana respectively.

Never since Independence has a PM become the lone star of a local election. Starting from the Delhi border with Rajasthan on one side and Uttar Pradesh on the other, all roads, walls and hoardings carry only Modi’s redoubtable visage. The name and picture of the local candidate is hardly visible or advertised. The BJP’s election slogan has also been chosen thoughtfully. If the war cry in the 2014 General Elections was Abki Baar Modi Sarkar (It’s time for a Modi government), it has coined an extended slogan, Chalo Chalein Modi Ke Saath (Let’s move with Modi) for the states. The party and its leaders, whether it is Shah or any Cabinet minister, never disclose the name of the CM candidate in a state poll. Instead they ask voters to vote for a government, which will work with Modi. Modi promises a Team India comprising CMs from his party alone. This is contrary to his announcement during the Lok Sabha election campaign that all CMs, irrespective of their political affiliations, would be co-opted. But the tone and tenor of Modi’s speeches during the Assembly poll campaigns reflect a resolve to establish his control over a large swathe of political India. His discourse sounds exactly like Indira Gandhi’s, who promoted a strong Centre and weak states during her reign. Modi himself was as a chief minister for 12 years. Now that he is India’s PM, he would like his model to be implemented unchallenged. If the Congress sans Indira or any other Gandhi is like a vehicle that has run out of fuel, the BJP without Modi is like a fish out of water. Modi has credibility and vigour to be numero uno, while the BJP lacks any of these virtues. The party couldn’t find winnable candidates in over 30 per cent of the constituencies in Haryana and Maharashtra. When the public simulacrum reflected a massive defeat for the BJP minus a charismatic local chieftain, it decided to invoke Moditva. It is for the first time that a PM is addressing such a large number of rallies during any Assembly poll.

Modi is aiming at more than a decisive victory in the two states. He sees an invincible opportunity. If he wins both, it would be the beginning of the BJP seizing better control not only in the states but also in the Rajya Sabha, where it is in a hopeless minority. Moreover, a victory will also provide him with the authority to impose CMs of his choice in Maharashtra and Haryana. Currently, barring Gujarat CM Anandiben Patel, the previous establishment had chosen the remaining three CMs in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Modi decided to take charge of the Assembly campaign after the party suffered humiliating defeats in the by-polls held in Bihar, UP and Rajasthan in July. Soon after his return from a highly successful trip to the US, Modi decided to defy the convention of the PM’s minimum participation in regional elections. He sent clear signals that he would be available for any number of rallies in any part of the two states, even at the cost of getting a sore throat.

NaMo is neither a compromiser nor a reconciliator regarding his principles or mission. Contrary to general belief, it was only after his nudge and nod that the party broke its 25-year-old alliance with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and a decade-old relationship with Haryana Janhit Congress led by Kuldeep Bishnoi. Modi wanted to send a clear message to his (diminished) detractors in the party that he doesn’t need them and that his dependable party chief can deliver the states without the help of allies. Its political divorces have left BJP without any significant ally in all the major states. Earlier, it had broken ties with Nitish Kumar in Bihar. At the moment, it has picayune parties like the Akali Dal and Ram Vilas Paswan as partners, along with Chandrababu Naidu. The viciousness of the speeches being made in Haryana by saffron leaders against the Akali Dal is an indication of BJP’s strained relationship with the Punjab party.

Modi’s road map is clear. He wants the BJP to jettison needling regional allies and capture as many states as possible alone. His real purpose is to improve the BJP’s strength in the Rajya Sabha, which can happen only if it gets a majority on its own in the states. If they continue to remain under non-BJP control, the party wouldn’t be able to increase its current number of 43 MPs to 60 in the next 10 years. Maharashtra sends 19 members to the Rajya Sabha, the second highest after Uttar Pradesh, which has 31. At the moment, the BJP has only three members from the Maratha state. Modi wants to treble his party’s tally. Before his five-year term expires, 20 states would have gone to the polls. Modi has targeted Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi and Karnataka, which account for over 90 seats while the BJP has just about a dozen from these states. Once he captures Maharashtra and Haryana, no party would be able to stop the Modi juggernaut from capturing the other states. NaMo has already set new records in politics. But for him, even the sky is not the limit. When challenged, Modi’s posture becomes even more determined. His current endeavour seems to be to decimate regional leaders and become India’s most feared and adored national leader.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

No PMO's Parror, Swaraj stands tall... Power & Politics / The Sunday Standard/ Setpember 28, 2014

No PMO's Parrot, Swaraj Stands Tall with 'Maximum Outcome, Minimum Visibility'

Diminutive she may be, but indomitable she certainly is. External Affairs minister Sushma Swaraj, perhaps the shortest in terms of height in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Cabinet, has been setting an example for the rest to look up to, as she charms the world with her tireless but discreet diplomatic missions to various international capitals. While Modi has positioned himself as India’s most effective leader, Swaraj seems to have adopted the principle of maximum outcome with minimum visibility. In advance of Modi’s Madison Avenue address, the Big Apple had acquired saffron hues; Modi’s cut-outs were giving the skyscrapers competition and banners adorned with his smiling visage became the leitmotif of what promised to be a historic visit by a leader, once demonised by the same hosts who are hero-worshiping him now. But it is Swaraj’s persuasive iron hand in the velvet glove diplomacy—she chastised Pakistan for spoiling the talks by meeting with separatists—which reveals her training as a lawyer and educationist with the motto that the more you speak, the more attention you get. In Manhattan, Swaraj graciously allowed TV channels and photographers to capture her on camera with foreign guests, but refused to deliver one-liners to reporters hungry for sugary or bitter bytes. She is one of the five women ministers in Modi’s Cabinet. Yet Swaraj is following the leader in creating records.

She is India’s first female foreign minister since Independence, with the exception of Indira Gandhi, who for a brief period held the portfolio when she was the Prime Minister. Swaraj is also the first Indian woman foreign minister to lead her country’s delegation to the United Nation General Assembly, as well as being part of the Prime Minister’s team during his entire stay in the US.

In fact, for the first time, two women, Swaraj and Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh, who appear to be made for each other, lead the Ministry of External Affairs. They also seem to be perfect partners in delivering perfect diplomacy. Most of the time, they have been travelling together, strategising against India’s foes and partnering to project Modi as a global leader with a ‘vision and mission’, causing much dismay to those South Block mandarins who pose as walking encyclopedias of global statecraft.

Modi landed in New York with a purposeful agenda and a list of targets to achieve, while Swaraj had a clearly defined assignment. Unlike the previous foreign ministers, who were cocktail party captives of pin-striped diplomats, spending more time sightseeing and raising toasts with the high and mighty in global financial capitals, Swaraj’s meetings were restricted to those who matter and can contribute in helping her restore India’s stature in international politics and the global economy. Modi’s unspoken objective is to acquire the global status, which India’s first Prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru enjoyed. Nehru, along with Marshal Tito of undivided Yugoslavia, forged an alliance of non-aligned nations to engage the contradictions of a bipolar world divided between the US and USSR. But now the world is divided by money and not ideology. Since India is where the fast buck starts, Modi is leveraging his economic ecology to place it in a better position to dictate international economic and strategic narratives. He has wisely chosen his political colleagues to aid him in this, instead of superannuated and supine babus or inane intellectuals sponsored by dubiously funded think tanks. Swaraj’s mandate is to network with both powerful and not-so-powerful nations. During her 10 days in the US—the longest ever visit by any foreign minister in recent times—she was expected to meet over 100 ministers from over 40 countries. While Modi spent his time impressing his fans and half-a-dozen heads of states, Swaraj was sorting out thorny issues with smaller but politically significant countries. For Modi, it was a visit to establish his superiority and triumph over a country that had treated him as a pariah. Hence, both leader and follower had defined their itinerary and objectives to achieve the maximum impact with minimum labour.

Swaraj was spending almost 10-12 hours every day to meet her official commitments. It was not a coincidence that she met foreign ministers from other nations, who could help further India’s current and future interests. Within a few hours of her arrival in New York, she met with seven of them. She had longish parlays with Philip Hammond, Britain’s Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Norwegian foreign minister Borge Brende, and Greek deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos among others. She didn’t leave out India’s neighbours and African leaders either. She met her counterparts from Sudan and Maldives. Her idea was to cover all continents and regional economic groups like BRICS, G4, IBSA, the Commonwealth and SAARC. She met ministers from West Asia to understand the contours of the ongoing conflict in the region. Her confabulations with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi at the UN headquarters ended the military stand-off on the Indo-China border following intrusions by PLA soldiers. During all her meetings, she chose to speak extempore except on occasions when formal introductory speeches were required. Those who attended her events confided that they were yet to come across another person who could pick up the subtle nuances of complex diplomacy in such a short time. Since the Prime Minister always sets the tone and tenor of diplomacy, it was left to Swaraj to articulate Modiplomacy, at the same time without sounding like the PMO’s parrot.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Modiplomacy has hues of Nehruvian .....Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ September 21, 2014

Modiplomacy Has Hues of Nehruvian Model Abroad and of Indira Gandhi at Home

So far India has heard and seen the Modi Mantra and the Modi Model of Governance. Now we see PM Narendra Modi’s ability to play diplomat by keeping diplomats away. He has always been told “a diplomat tries to arouse the nation whereas a politician lulls it to sleep”. Last week, he reversed the role, literally. While senior Foreign Service officers were lulling themselves and mulling over Indo-China policy, Modi set a few precedents for future diplomats to follow. He inspired his countrymen by making his Chinese guests keep aside fatuous formalities, and engaged them in a new diplomatic genre which displays the maximum but delivers the minimum. Modi converted the visit of Xi Jinping, China’s most power leader, with his elegant wife Peng Liyuan into a stellar marketing event. Though Xi’s visit was at the Indian president’s invitation, Modi ensured that the focus remained on him alone. From the selection of gifts to the dinner menu, everything reflected the unique Mo-Diplomacy. Most state visits are meant to fill diplomatic attendance registers. Many agreements are signed, numerous speeches are delivered and many discussions take place for analysts to give their verdict, which often turns out to be mere chimeras. Xi’s India sojourn, however, was one with a visible difference. Besides being a visual delight, it created global ripples for its timing and tenor. Since Modi has no inhibitions about calling himself a Gujju businessman, he won the hearts of China’s first couple with classy cuisine and a delightful dress circle in Ahmedabad. He replaced ping-pong diplomacy with swing diplomacy, leaving people all over the world guessing about the direction and impact of the Gujarati swing. Modi always thinks of new ideas for governance, conducting dialogues with ministers, corporate leaders and now foreign dignitaries. He sees symbolism and gestures as more powerful, effective instruments to achieve objectives than delivering formal speeches in purple prose. Ever since Modi took over, he has been engaging foreign leaders on his own terms. He is the first Indian PM to hardly ever use written notes for speeches when dealing with international visitors. He knows there is no better weapon than one’s own language to put counterparts on the defensive. For the past few months, Modi has interacted with over two dozen world leaders and has addressed as many meetings, but always in Hindi. His supporters take pride in claiming that Modi is the man of the moment whom the world is waiting to hear, even though it may not understand his language or politics. Modi believes in breaking records and conventions. Besides creating history by winning a parliamentary majority by a genuine non-Congress party for the first time, he has many innovations in diplomacy to his credit. Here are some unique examples of Modi’s swing diplomacy:

• Modi is the first Indian PM who has invited all SAARC heads to attend his swearing-in ceremony. He sprang a surprise on the foreign office by suddenly announcing his decision to unprepared diplomats, as the gesture involved engaging hostile neighbours like Pakistan and the not-so-friendly ones like Sri Lanka and Nepal. But Modi was quite clear in his mind. He wanted to start his innings, not as a PM who just favours peace in the neighbourhood but also one who acts to reclaim India’s regional leadership. With his first move, he disarmed his rivals.

• While his predecessors would always seek to begin their stint with a meeting with the global powers, Modi chose to embrace India’s neighbours to create a club of his own. The idea was to ensure that India would like to work with them in international affairs. Hence his diplomatic itinerary started with Nepal, Bhutan and later Japan.

• To make Gujaratis realise that he hasn’t forgotten them or their interests, Modi became the first PM to welcome the President of China not in New Delhi but in Ahmedabad, and the first PM to do so in a state capital.

• To drive home the point that he is not against the corporate and private sector, he became the first PM to welcome a head of state at the door of a privately owned five-star hotel outside New Delhi.

• Though it is not officially admitted, Modi created the unique convention of giving a personal touch to Chinese President’s visit by arranging it on his own birthday in his own state. No world leader has ever thought of such a novel idea of beaming and bonding.

• If that wasn’t enough, Modi is the first PM to host a lavish state dinner on a riverfront. Xi was served a 50-course Gujarati dinner, along with elegantly choreographed entertainment. About 50 guests, including Gujarat Chief Minister Anandiben Patel, attended the event. It was meant to create the ambience for a softer tone for the hard bargaining which followed during the official talks on the next day in New Delhi.

• Modi used his PM status to swing three agreements with China, involving billions of dollars for Gujarat. Never before has a PM presided over the signing ceremonies of MoUs for investment in numerous local fields.

• Modi replaced formality with informality, which is anathema to conventional diplomacy. By taking Xi for a leisurely walk along a specially curated Sabarmati riverfront, Modi set the tone for a personal bonding—rare between a Chinese president and an Indian PM.

• Modi sprang yet another surprise on the Chinese first couple with a Gujarati swing. He himself sat with Xi, and later requested the couple to amuse themselves on the swing so that he could swing a favourable deal for a promised $20 billion FDI in India. Xi appeared so impressed by Modi’s sartorial flair that he decided to wear a Nehru Jacket during his riverfront stroll.

• Since the Chinese First Lady takes pride in promoting Chinese brands and music, Modi ensured that Smriti Irani, the minister-in-waiting for the President, gave as a gift a Gandhi Charkha to underscore the importance of the Mahatma and his fight for Indian-made products. It was both a symbol and  warning that India would promote its hand-woven fabrics and prevent China from dumping its sub-standard products on our shores. Modi also ensured that Xi was the first Chinese president to visit the Sabarmati ashram and sign the visitor’s log.

It was obvious that Modi wanted to shift the headquarters of diplomacy from New Delhi to Ahmedabad for this big event. Even the official MEA spokesperson candidly admitted, “It’s no secret that the PM is very keen that India be showcased beyond Delhi. He has made it amply clear that the beauty and magnificence of India beyond Delhi should be seen by visiting foreign leaders, and we are beginning that process with President Xi’s visit.” But it wasn’t just about showcasing Indian beauty and magnificence beyond Delhi; Modi wanted to be the master of ceremonies himself. If Xi had landed in New Delhi, the spotlight would have been on the magnificence of Rashtrapati Bhawan and Hyderabad House. In Gujarat, it was Modi and the Sabarmati riverfront all the way, in all the frames. He is the only Gujarat CM who has visited China five times. He was determined to pay back his former hosts in the same manner and style which was accorded to him. Above all, with his manners, methodology and mechanisms, Modi has defined the road map for converting INCH (Indo-China) into MILES (Mega Indian Long-term Engagement Strategy). Indian Prime Ministers have always taken unusual interests in international relations and Modi is no exception. But there is a difference. Modiplomacy is acquiring the hues of the Nehruvian model abroad and that of Indira Gandhi in domestic politics.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Copyrights do expire. Gandhis must...Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ September 07, 2014

Copyrights Do Expire. Gandhis Must Rediscover Congress to Stay Politically Relevant

There cannot be a more opportune time for both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to dust the shelves of history, and pull out the gilded volumes of The Discovery of India written by Jawaharlal Nehru. The book could help them rediscover not just themselves but also their party—the Indian National Congress. The time has come for the stakeholders of the jaded 128-year-old outfit to rediscover and reposition itself. Since the Gandhis are the only shareholders, they have to devise a perfect and effective marketing strategy to reclaim the territory lost to Narendra Modi. If they feel that they can achieve this by  confining themselves to inaccessible, fortified homes and offices, they are likely to lose even more than what they can imagine. Congressmen want the Gandhis to lead from the front and not retreat into citadels. Their gestures and actions during the next months will not only decide the party’s future but also the political relevance of the Gandhi Parivar. Sonia acquired an iconic status after winning power for the Congress in 2004 and 2009. The Gandhis have always been recognised as national leaders. Now with the arrival of Modi on the national scene, Sonia has to score a dramatic comeback to retain her pan-Indian identity and exalted status.

The Congress has gone though many splits, climbed many hills and descended myriad valleys. But the party has never faced such a threat to its very existence. Even after 110 days of its worst defeat since Independence, the High Command is still prostrate with shock. The body language of the leadership and middle-level functionaries doesn’t reflect the resolve needed to stage a comeback. While the BJP has undergone a generational change and an ideological overhaul, the Congress is struggling to keep its flock together. Generally, the political war should be between the ruling party and the Opposition over issues and institutions. But the Congress appears to be at war with itself. The Gandhis are conspicuous by absence, yet the party keeps its faith in the Gandhis. A majority of workers feel that only a Gandhi can revive the party. But they are hugely demoralised by the internecine strife among senior leaders who are busy seeking various posts like the Leader of the Opposition and chairpersons of various parliamentary committees instead of agitating against the ruling party by finding fault with its governance. A former minister, known more for indiscretion than performance and was sacked for his objectionable conduct, lobbied so hard to grab the chairmanship of a panel by incessantly hounding the High Command that other more qualified young MPs were ignored. A large number of former ministers and senior functionaries cut sorry figures when they continue to behave as if they are still members of the ruling party, and fail to accept that they have lost not just power but credibility too. A bunch of defeated and defamed Congressmen pose a mammoth challenge to the party leadership by unashamedly seeking positions of power in the organisation. Perhaps this damaging environment has forced over a dozen young Congress officebearers to demand the purge of those who were responsible for the rout of 2014, but are unwilling to quit their lofty perches. A party general secretary demanded that anyone above 65 should retire from active politics. A month before, some state leaders had raised their voices against Rahul, holding him responsible for the collapse of the party structure.

Sporadic rebellion against the leadership is not unprecedented, especially after the party had lost a decisive election. The Congress genetically is an outfit of power-seekers. The party lost its independent character after Indira Gandhi faced down the powerful challenge from the party’s original freedom fighters. If they got India independence from the British, Indira Gandhi got liberation from them and created a portmanteau of loyalists who worshipped her like a deity. Since then, the inheritors of her political genealogy have been building and rebuilding a party of a quantity of followers, but few leaders of quality.

It is not surprising that despite the party’s humiliating defeat, no disgruntled Congress leader has demanded Sonia Gandhi’s resignation. They still feel that she is the only one who can revive the party’s sagging morale and nudge her son to be more politically proactive. For the past three months, they have been expecting a major organisational reshuffle—both at the Central and state levels. They were also expecting Sonia to tour the states extensively to address grassroots workers. In fact, she was working on a revival plan and had planned a Bharat Yatra accompanied by new set of officebearers. But she couldn’t take on the oldies. Even in the selection of various officebearers, she was advised against experimenting and just stick to the well-tested Congress principle of obliging every caste and region. For example, she was forced to appoint 72-year-old Mallikarjun Kharge as the party’s leader in the Lok Sabha only because he was a Dalit. Many effective senior leaders like Veerappa Moily and Kamal Nath were ignored. For the past 112 days, she has been meeting people from various parts of the country, but has refrained from calling a formal meeting of state leaders. Her supporters and admirers are equally baffled by her inaction in revamping the party machinery in the poll-bound states of Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and J&K. All of them have the sinking feeling that the High Command has accepted defeat in these states even before the elections have been formally announced. In addition, there are no serious talks about forging regional alliances to stop the Modi juggernaut from making a triumphant entry into these states. All of them are currently ruled by the Congress or in alliance with a local party. The party has formulated no strategy to fight the by-elections in various states like Uttar Pradesh. It has decided not to seriously participate in any of the 12 by-polls. The reason is quite a revelation. The party, which still rules around half the number of the country’s states and has held sway over India for over five decades, is short of funds. If this is indeed true, then it reveals yet another equation changing within the party. Those who are capable of funding the party and collecting huge amounts are not passing the dosh on to headquarters, but are keeping it with themselves to finance the elections of their supplicants. It is a clear signal to the Gandhis to undertake the long political journey to rediscover the Congress, which still swears by them, stands beside them and sacrifices for them. After all, copyrights do expire and royalty also ends.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

By Connecting with the Young, Chacha Modi ...... Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/ August 31, 2014

By Connecting With the Young, Chacha Modi Could Create an India of His Dreams

Modi is a message. Even his sworn enemies concede that. But he is also au courant with the medium to disseminate his message in real time. His colleagues are surviving by flirting with fair-weather opinion-makers and media mavens. On the other hand, the PM is thriving by setting up his own mechanism for connecting with India. In the past 100 days, Modi has proved that he can reach out to maximum people with minimum interaction with the media. He doesn’t miss any opportunity to convert his gestures into a publicised event. From Independence Day to Teachers’ Day, every date provides him an excuse to reach out to target audiences all over the country—schoolchildren, bank officers, jawans, youth and government employees. His obsession with technology and social media has made him the only world leader who connects with people directly, making conventional media redundant. It may sound like a coincidence, but there is a method in his methodology.

Last week, he was back on stage with another out-of-the box idea. His eyes are set on future voters as well—India’s children. India’s first PM Jawaharlal Nehru’s birthday on November 14 was declared as Children’s Day so that he could speak to the young. He would ask the Delhi government to gather over 1,000 school kids at the national stadium and interact with them at teatime, thus earning him the sobriquet ‘Chacha Nehru’. But Modi isn’t bothered about projecting his birthday. Instead, he had a recent epiphany about how to reach both children and teachers simultaneously. HRD Minister Smriti Irani has directed her ministry to convert Teachers’ Day on September 5 into a ‘Charcha with Chacha Modi’. A planned dialogue with 100 handpicked students from Delhi schools will last for over 100 minutes, to be telecast throughout. States have been directed to provide not only TV sets in chosen schools but also Internet connections in remote areas so that all schoolchildren can watch the PM answering questions from kids. Though states are yet to provide the total number of the children audience, the HRD ministry is confident that it would set a world record in which a PM would be watched by over 1,900 million schoolchildren.

All these are not just attempts to reach out to future voters and to mesmerise adolescents with the Modi Mantra. The idea is to force states to connect every school with the rest of the country and the world. It will also help the PM to interact with the most active section of the population. For Modi, connectivity is a matter of faith. Creating records is his mission. Like a star athlete, he takes pride in hanging medals on his 56-inch chest. Last week, his administration created history again. It is perhaps for the first time that any Indian government has implemented a scheme within two weeks of its announcement by the PM—the Jan Dhan Yojna. Calling it an attempt to ensure financial inclusion, the finance ministry launched the scheme on August 28 by opening over 1.8 crore bank accounts for over 60 per cent of Indians who have no access to banking facilities. He also announced 1.5 crore free insurance policies. This means massive business for banks, insurance companies and mobile operators. Earlier, Modi sent out emails to senior bank officials, asking them to take active interest in opening accounts under the scheme. Never before had any official received a personal communication from the PM. A senior banker confided that but for the PM’s personal intervention, the banking system wouldn’t have come together to successfully conduct such a massive exercise in a single day.

Modi’s passion for connectivity was evident when he launched the government portal mygov.nic.in on July 26. It is meant to encourage people to write to him directly about various issues and propose solutions. Since talkative and argumentative Indians have opinions on everything, Modi saw an opportunity to be exploited in this predilection. Any ordinary citizen in any remote part of India now has direct access to the PM. Later, he issued a directive to all government employees to provide their email ids to their ministries in case he wished to get in touch directly. On the face of it, all these exercises appear to be just about the government communicating through a new technology-driven medium. But actually they involve creating a massive data bank, which Modi is putting together to access without government help in the future. According to his techie aides, the PM himself has access to over four crore mobile numbers, email ids and personal details of ministers—both at the Centre and in the states—as well as of party workers. This info-treasury is a powerful instrument in his hands to keep track of the performance of party office-bearers and ministerial colleagues. Modi would also be able to do course corrections. It is intriguing that he hasn’t junked the practice of placing the PM’s picture on every Central government advertisement, an exercise started by the all-powerful Indira Gandhi, who, too, was equally aggressive in establishing direct contact with the people.

A loner by lifestyle and a workaholic by nature, Modi is perhaps the first CM who fought as a PM candidate and won an unprecedented mandate. He earned it by being a frequent flier and maximum talker. According to websites, Modi addressed about 425 rallies in 28 states, covering 5,800 locations from September 2013 to May 2014. He flew and drove for 300,000 km and spoke to over four crore people. He conceived an unusual interactive programme by organising Chai Pe Charcha, which was distributed live through 3D projectors at 400 locations. As if connectivity with domestic audiences wasn’t enough, he set yet another precedent on the day of his swearing-in. For the first time, leaders from SAARC countries, including a hostile Pakistan, were invited to participate in the function of installing India’s PM. As Modi completes 100 days in office this week, he would be known as the most formidable human data bank connected to the most powerful and fastest server with unlimited memory. For Modi, it is not a chair in South Block but information which is power. Will he use it to create the India of his dreams or demolish those who stand as roadblocks in his way to become the most powerful PM the country has ever had? Over to Chacha Modi.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

PM Must Choose his Words ..... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/ August 24, 2014

PM Must Choose his Words and Weapons in Dealing with Pak and its Missionaries

For a while now, all Pakistan envoys posted in India have been nothing more than remote-controlled megaphones. Their mission is to blare out the bluster of their ventriloquists in Islamabad and they are rarely switched off. Conventionally, a diplomat is expected to convey even the nastiest news in the nicest manner. But Pakistani diplomats are trained to convey to India the meanest messages in the foulest fashion. Recently, when the elegantly balding, sharp-nosed Abdul Basit, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India, made a plea to include separatist leaders as stakeholders in the K-dispute, he gave an ugly face to diplomacy. His provocative contention was a direct intervention in India’s internal matters and violation of conventions. Despite a stern warning by India’s foreign office, he held meetings with self-styled Kashmiri leaders who have been rejected by the people of their own state. A section of Indian diplomacy firmly believes that most Pak high commissioners have been used to unintentionally sabotage dialogue between the two countries. Or was it an attempt to prevent the visit of Indian diplomats to Pakistan, who would have gathered first-hand information about its paralysed government? Opposition leaders like Imran Khan and Dr Tahirul Qadri are making it impossible for beleaguered PM Nawaz Sharif to function as head of the government. Hence it is a mystery as to who could have advised Pakistan’s foreign secretary to continue the dialogue with Indian delegation? Was it a move on Basit’s part to destroy India’s democratic milieu? After all, every Pak envoy is known for hosting parties replete with biryani and sufi concerts for Delhi’s cultural, social and political influencers who would then sing the same tune as the quarrelsome quwwals in Islamabad.

Otherwise what was the logic behind Basit’s move in invoking the right of those responsible for creating trouble in the Valley? By his action, Basit has defied Indian democracy. He has challenged the right of democratically established Indian institutions to decide on how to deal with hostile elements. Predictably, an envoy representing a failed state struggling to save its identity is trying to deflect international attention from the crisis at home. It is unclear whether he speaks on behalf of Pakistan’s elected government or some invisible parallel power centre. Democratically elected leaders hardly share the vocabulary exhibited by Basit. His speaking style resembled extremists like Hafiz Saeed and others better. While his symbolic political masters back home underplayed India’s decision to call off the Secretary-level talks on August 25, it was Basit who was painting India as a warmonger.

Basit and his predecessors have been liberally misusing diplomatic immunity by not only engaging with anti-India elements but also trying to infiltrate the capital’s high and mighty club. The Pakistani establishment always chooses suave high commissioners whose cosmopolitan charm makes them trophy guests in Delhi’s drawing rooms. During the past three decades, envoys like Abdul Sattar, Riaz Khokhar, Ashraf Jahangir Kazi and Salman Bashir were so effective at networking that none of those invited to the high commissioner’s residence would ever utter a word against their hosts’ direst diatribes. With huge funds at their disposal, the envoys were able to create pressure groups in India who would parrot the Pak point of view on cross-border dialogue. In the past 25 years, Pakistan’s top diplomats have directly or indirectly facilitated the participation of hundreds of powerful Indian opinion-makers in seminars, symposiums and similar fine-dining gabfests organised by think-tanks funded by unknown sources in Pakistan. It is possible that some of the frequent fliers to Islamabad and Karachi from India have strong feelings against the continuation of dialogue with the perfidious neighbour, but there are many others who refuse to find fault with terror activities sponsored by non-state actors from across the border. The Pak High Commission in Delhi has become the preferred rendezvous for all those who have either been convinced about or mesmerised into believing in Pakistan’s cause. Last week when Basit spoke about “stakeholders”, he found support from many internationalists from India, including corporate leaders, all of whom have been strongly building a case for enhanced cultural, economic and sports cooperation between the two countries. Surprisingly, none of the beneficiaries of Indian munificence—at home and in Pakistan—have ever spoken against terror camps in PoK and Pakistan. On the other hand, they were able to influence the Indian establishment to grant Pakistan ‘Most Favoured Nation’ status by ignoring the fact that border violations have been plenty in past two years. According to a latest report, over a dozen terrorist training camps are actively operating from PoK and other parts of Pakistan. What is worse is that there is no progress on India’s demand to hand over its known enemies like Saeed and Dawood hiding in Pakistan. In a widely televised press conference, however, Basit let it drop that his country is also a victim of terrorism and that over 1,500 civilians have been killed by terrorists. He conveniently forgot that the killers were Frankenstein’s monsters created by Pakistani agencies like ISI.

The response to Basit’s outburst only reflects that though the colour of the Central government has changed, its organs remain unwilling to strike or challenge the defiance of Pak diplomats. Knowing PM Narendra Modi’s style and intentions, he would have sent Basit packing, along with his team and taken the broom to pro-dialogue moles in his own establishment and the party. According to media reports, even External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj was kept out of the loop regarding cancelling the dialogue. It is a fact that Swaraj has been pushing for a hardline approach against Pakistan, even when she was Leader of the Opposition. The new leadership, however, has realised that the primary reason behind the delay in the settlement of the Kashmir standoff emanates not from the political leadership but from diplomats and non-state actors who have a greater stake in the continuity of confrontation between the two countries. Even Western powers like the US allow that any settlement between a prosperous India and a peaceful Pakistan would end US machinations and destabilise its strategic interests in South Asia. Modi began well by inviting Sharif to his swearing-in. But Sharif and his establishment have returned the gesture with bullets and barbs. It is for the PM to choose his words and weapons in dealing with India’s nefarious neighbour and its missionaries and mercenaries in India.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Outsider PM's success lies in ..... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/August 17, 2014

Outsider PM's Success Lies in How Fast He Demolishes Barriers Built by Insiders

It was a 63-minute speech which elitist India would abhor, even while adoring its deliverer. Flamboyant in royal Jodhpuri headgear, Prime Minister Narendra Modi comported himself like a man with a mandate. His maiden address to the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort was short on big words but long in outreach. The gifted orator used videshi idiom to unfold a swadeshi road map. He vowed to convert India’s primitive countryside into a digital paradise. But he also made it clear that wireless connectivity would be achieved only through instruments made in India. He said, “When I talk about Digital India, it is not just something meant for big people. It is an instrument of growth for the poor.” The PM adroitly chose the very issues used by the elitist India to stay relevant and connected with the establishment, both at home and abroad. Speaking on gender issues, safety of women and heinous crimes like rapes, he admonished parents, asking them to control their sons instead of shackling their daughters, something no NGO or chest-thumping activist has even had an epiphany about. It is for the first time that a leader made it the responsibility of parents to spend more time in making their sons accountable for their activities than monitoring their daughters with suspicion. He emphasised the need for a clean India, both in body and spirit. His predecessors would unfailingly bleat about reviving big business, but Modi’s intent is to create a phalanx of young entrepreneurs. Refraining from excessive name-dropping of past leaders, including Mahatma Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Modi touched upon almost every issue from communalism to consumerism. Perhaps, it is for the first time that a PM skipped commenting on cross-border threats. The central point of his address was exclusively domestic—ensuring a responsive civil service, engineering economic revival and containing caste and communal strife. Without defining the contours of the coming institutional changes in the government structure, he made his first visible move by announcing the disbanding of the Planning Commission, which had become a roadblock in faster development of states. It was a political message to the states that the PM would like to make all CMs equal stakeholders in the allocation of funds for progress. With a single stroke, Modi silenced his worst critics in the states. Thus the CM-turned-PM also became India’s Pradhan Mukhya Mantri (Prime Chief Minister) and Pradhan Sewak.

Modi also made the shocking revelation that Delhi has many governments within the government. By giving the example of one Union ministry fighting a legal battle against another, he was revealing the nature of the various pressure groups that use their influence to stall government decisions through their contacts with ministers and bureaucrats. Calling himself an outsider, Modi made it clear that he was determined to dismantle the parallel establishment inside and outside the government. As his vocabulary revealed, now that he has taken charge, the PM would start the process of putting in place a genuine Modi Sarkar soon. According to insiders, he has been spending long hours understanding the rules of governance and the hidden multi-layer processes within decision-making. He has successfully aborted the moves of numerous powerbrokers to find their way into his inner circle of advisors. As one of his aides said, “Modiji moved from Gujarat to Delhi without a kitchen. Now many are in the line to join his kitchen cabinet. They don’t forget that he is a much better cook and manager of his own kitchen.” As is evident from the past 75 days of his tenure, Modi welcomes ideas and not individuals with personal agendas.

NaMo has once again asserted that he will follow his own vision and mission. Proving various pundits claiming proximity to him wrong, the PM’s message to the nation was not written by a menagerie of mandarins. As is the usual practice, all ministries were asked to send directly to Modi proposals they would like to be included in the PM’s speech. Since most of these presentations were near-Xeroxes of the ones sent to previous PMs, they went into Modi’s trash can. He avoided announcing new schemes, elaborating only on subjects he was vocal about during his election campaign. All the new initiatives he announced bore the Modi stamp. He didn’t make any promises. It was obvious that he realised over 90 per cent of the new schemes announced by his predecessors were forgotten as soon as they returned to Race Course.

Two most important takeaways from Modi’s address were accountability and delivery. Announcing the launch of Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojna, he advised all MPs and MLAs to use their discretionary funds to develop a model village each in their constituency every year. So far, lawmakers were using taxpayers’ money to oblige their supporters by constructing barat ghars, installing streetlights near their houses or splurging money on projects which were already being funded by other agencies. Modi’s objective was to force legislators to deliver visible assets in their respective areas. Basically, he was telling them to spend less time at cocktail parties and more working in the villages. Modi has realised that it is the growing promiscuity between lawmakers and lawbreakers in big cities that has marred the nation’s growth.

His indigenous narrative was also meant to make India self-reliant by making her a destination for capital creation. His pitch for foreign investment did not come without a rider. He made it clear that foreigners are welcome to establish manufacturing units and not just to invest in financial instruments. None would be encouraged to bring in hot money either. They could come only to make things in India and sell them outside India. He offered investors a range of choices from paper manufacturing to submarine building to minimise India’s dependence on imports.

Modi’s call for change from the heights of the Red Fort has shaken the foundation of the class and caste-ridden establishment. His success would lie in how fast and how soon an outsider like him would be able to demolish the 68-year-old hitherto unbreakable barrier built and protected by greedy insiders and take India to its true destiny.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Modi Faces Bigger Threat .... Power & Politics / The Sunday Standard/ 10.08.2014

Modi Faces Bigger Threat from Wily Civil Servants Than Political Opponents

It was a missive, totally un-Modi like, since Narendra Modi has won India and taken full control of BJP through trusted and tested aide Amit Shah. But the citadel that awaits to be stormed is the Delhi-based phalanx of babus, who he is yet to Modify. Last weekend, when the PMO issued a 19-point code of conduct after almost 30 years for India’s steel-framed bureaucracy, it was seen as a warning. Modi is perhaps the first PM who has refrained from mass-scale transfers of senior officials. He surprised his colleagues by deciding to give a six-month extension to Cabinet Secretary Ajit Seth, whose only virtue is his invisibility. Modi has retained all key secretaries in finance, defence, HRD, home and external affairs. He enforced the principle of continuity in the bureaucracy even though some mandarins were UPA loyalists. It is clear that Modi wants to govern through bureaucracy. He has taken over from Manmohan but the Modi government is yet to acquire a shape.

The Indian Civil Services is one of the country’s most powerful institutions. A relic of the Raj, it ensured that politicians would never take any initiative without making babus either partners in power or beneficiaries of the system. The over 20,000-member club of All India Services officers comprising IAS, IFS, IRS, IR&AS, IPS etc. are the unelected rulers of India. They get automatic promotions, perks and salaries and create lucrative post-retirement facilities, which even politicians have failed to do for themselves. When Modi advised bureaucrats to be neutral, efficient and honest, it was like telling a tiger to stop hunting. Insiders say there are enough checks on the civil services in place, without the need for new directives. Even the official code of conduct provides summary dismissal of officials found engaging in political activity. They can be sent to jail if guilty of corruption. In one instance, Yashpal Kapoor, the then private secretary to PM Indira Gandhi, acted as an election agent for her. Mrs Gandhi lost her poll petition because she used a government official for election purposes. Rarely is a senior official transferred due to his or her inability to perform duties correctly, because the steel frame hasn’t allowed any accountability matrix for the bureaucracy. Babus can only be moved out if they fail to do the bidding of their political masters.

Modi, however, added a significant provision to his proclamation, which, if taken to the logical end, would break the civil service-corporate nexus. One directive is that all conflict of interest situations must be avoided and resolved. It is evident the PM has placed a premium on the character of a civil servant. It is, in fact, the conflict of interest—or creation of future interest—which has been the guiding principle for taking official decisions so far. Post-retirement, most civil servants joined the very corporations they used to deal with in their official capacity. A study of retired babus reveals that over 80 per cent of senior officials took up highly paid jobs after superannuation in the same sectors they had been handling, all which benefited by their decisions. One of the most dangerous fallouts of economic reform has been mandarins playing the markets. Either through relatives or on their own, bureaucrats have been making a killing buying and selling scrips. It is the cleverest legal way of making illegal money because babus know in advance which future policies of the government would positively or negatively affect various sectors. There is suspicion in some quarters that it is the politician-babu-corporate nexus that has prevented the government from imposing the capital gains tax so far. India is perhaps the only democracy where promoters and relatives in politics and civil services make crores without paying a paisa as income tax. The power of bureaucracy was evident when two decades ago, it prevented the finance minister from revealing the names of babus who were allotted promoters’ shares by companies at concessional rates. Some officials holding the shares joined the same companies as directors or consultants. Even now, there are officials who have mastered the art of writing pro-private sector documents for PPP and demand royalty for it.

Piercing the steel frame has been a big challenge for all leaders for it’s the apparatchik who makes the apparatus. Modi should remember that the “bureaucracy is a giant mechanism operated by pygmies and cowards”. Therefore, his agenda should have been to replace pygmies with giants. If a party needs a strongman with verve and vision, the bureaucracy needs an equally towering personality to lead it. For past three decades, fearless and innovative officers have lost the battle to sycophants and incompetents. India has seen impressive Cabinet Secretaries and principal secretaries like A N Verma, Brajesh Mishra, B G Deshmukh, Vinod Pandey and Naresh Chandra. They led from the front and were au courant with the mind and mission of their PMs. Since they were first-raters, they also chose first-raters to assist in running the government. Now second-raters have taken over and they look for third-raters so that they do not outshine their bosses.

For a change, the steel frame showed signs of cracks after Modi took over. Initially, they cowered perspiring in their AC rooms for the call from South Block, informing them about their transfers. They were relieved they were not relieved of their jobs. Modi preaches and practises delivery. As Gujarat CM, he successfully rode the bureaucracy tiger. He neither set nor amended any rules of conduct for them. Yet his babus exceeded his expectations.

So, when he walked into 7 RCR, the bureaucracy was expecting its achche din of doing no work about to end. It is used to conjuring up new ideas for the new leader, to generate fresh jobs for themselves and escape scrutiny. Babus understood the real message behind Modi’s slogan ‘Minimum Government, Maximum Governance’ well. It meant he would demolish many departments and secretaries to create a lean, mean establishment. Before Modi could implement his vision, they counselled him to embark on the path of ‘advice first, act later’. The bureaucracy abhors initiative and innovation. It despises any exercise which ensures better results. Modi faces a bigger threat from the wily civil servant than from any political opponent. He must keep it in mind that “powers once acquired are never relinquished easily, just as bureaucracies once created never die or vanish”.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Books by Has-beens is More about... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/03.08.2014

Books by Has-beens is More About Rediscovering Their Imaginary Legacies

G K Chesterton, known for his adept turn of phrase, wisecracked, “A good novel tells us the truth about its hero, but a bad novel tells us the truth about its author.” Former Gandhi loyalist-turned-Brutus Natwar Singh’s new book is not a novel, but fiction stranger than fact. His only claim to fame is the close access he once enjoyed to the Nehru-Gandhi family and its accompanying advantages. He doesn’t lose any opportunity to boast about his encounters with world leaders and how Indira Gandhi trusted him more than any other where diplomatic ventures were concerned. Predictably, his book reveals more about himself than his former benefactor, mentor and promoter, Sonia Gandhi. But for Gandhi Parivar’s indulgence and munificence, Singh would be spending his sunset days in some village of Rajasthan like many of his former colleagues. I haven’t read the book, but have read enough and heard his utterances regarding his interpretation of events, which is aimed at demolishing the already marginalised Sonia.

Natwar is a herald of hindsight; he has expounded anything and everything about Sonia’s style and substance, which he now finds dictatorial. The acolyte who revolted against former PM P V Narasimha Rao for Sonia’s sake, has now become her worst enemy. Modesty has never been Natwar’s virtue. Like many retired, tired and fired civil servants and politicians, he has followed the formula of hawking wisdom by writing selective memoirs. During the past decade, many retired babus and advisers have penned experiences, receiving much media space. All of them, perhaps, believe that public memory is short. It isn’t. Natwar, like many other authors before him, has been uncharitable with the truth. While some, like former President Venkatraman and BG Deshmukh, former principal secretary to Rajiv Gandhi, refrained from making political statements or embarrassing disclosures, others like T N Seshan and P C Alexander used privileged information to seek publicity or favour from the new establishment. 

Natwar has the advantage of both degree and pedigree. His ‘damning revelations’ would have made sense if he had dealt with Volcker Commission’s Report on Oil-for-Food scam. His close aide implicated him. It was only after massive protests in Parliament that he lost his job as foreign minister. When India Today carried it as a cover story and followed up with a series of debates on Headlines Today, Sonia was forced to jettison Natwar. To be fair to her, she resisted all pressure to act hastily after the story hit the headlines. First she divested Natwar of his portfolio and asked him to resign only later. But Natwar seems to have glossed over this chapter, which marked the end of his relationship with the Congress and Gandhi Parivar. Trained in the bureaucratic and political tradition of compromise, he cleverly evades his and the Congress’ association or role in the scam.

Both Natwar and Congress were listed in the report as “non-contractual beneficiaries” of Iraqi oil sales in 2001. Natwar was mentioned as the non-contractual “beneficiary” in connection with four million barrels of oil routed through Masefield AG, named as the contracting company. The report also claimed that Congress also benefitted through the same company, a charge denied by both Natwar and the party. Surprisingly, after his disgraceful ouster, Natwar kept schtum for almost six years. He even let his son Jagat contest an Assembly poll on a BJP ticket.

The irony is that even after writing highly sensational prose, Natwar admits he hasn’t revealed all he knows. It is evident that the predominant objective is to establish his honesty and give a bad name to his former mentor. His attempt appears to expose as myth Sonia’s decision not to become PM by heeding her “inner voice, and that she did so because Rahul felt that she, too, would be assassinated like his father and grandmother”. Such rumours did appear in the media in 2004. Natwar’s details about the events tell more about the quality of the author’s wisdom than the heroine or villain of his labours. Evidence is scarcer than truth: like, an ex-adviser of a former PM, Natwar also mentions that official files were sent to Sonia for approval, but doesn’t offer any proof. I am positive that Natwar himself was sharing much sensitive information about his ministry with Sonia, but wasn’t significant enough to be appreciated by the Congress president.

If Natwar decided to give vent to his anger against the Gandhis, others have churned out volumes only to enshrine their virtues. For example, when Seshan, former Cabinet Secretary and later Chief Election Commissioner, wrote A Heart Full of Burden, he simply forgot to disclose his relationship with former PM V P Singh and the reasons that led to his removal. He also abjured any explanations for his decision to postpone the second phase of Lok Sabha polls after Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination. Seshan, in fact, claimed that he consulted former PM Chandrashekhar before taking the decision, who flatly refuted this. Even Alexander never revealed the real reason for his ouster from Indira Gandhi’s office in his three tomes. He was asked to leave after the discovery of a functionary in his office embroiled in an espionage scandal.

A great example of a sunshine memoir is My Presidential Years by former President R Venkatraman. Contrary to general perception about his cloudy relations with Rajiv Gandhi, he revealed a few disagreeable facts. In one of my meetings with him, Venkatraman mentioned his problems with Rajiv, who he claimed came to meet him only to discuss the colour of Rashtrapati Bhavan curtains. Based on my interaction, I wrote a story in India Today. Soon after it hit the stands, he cancelled my scheduled meeting with him.

It is evident that the competitive urge to write books by has-beens and forgotten time-servers about their official roles seems to have more to do with positioning themselves as advisers-on-call and rediscovering their imaginary legacies. As a powerful personage in the current dispensation puts it, how come wisdom and truth dawns on babus and leaders only after they are sacked or retired? To paraphrase Sonia’s literary promise, I will disclose the truth when I write my encounters with untruth.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla