Modi's message is Loud and Clever ..... Poweer & Politics /The Sunday Standard/ April 10, 2016

Modi's Message is Loud and Clever: While in Govt, Work for India and Dream for India

 

Advice is just a pseudonym for infiltration, especially in administration. There was a time when videshi was considered the most effective panacea for all ills plaguing Indian governance. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi perceives anyone with foreign connections in ministries as a devious influence peddler. Last week, following instructions from the PMO, the Health Ministry embarked on a purge of over 150 consultants who were advising it on various health-related issues. Most of them have been working in the government for many years, and are handsomely financed by prestigious global organisations like WHO and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. 

 A large number of these have been involved in programmes that monitor the spread of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis in India. Modi’s choice of the Health Ministry as his first arena to sweep away foreign influence in the government has upset and disrupted a well-knit system which permeates government agencies, influence policies and whose final beneficiaries are its financiers. The PM may be talking about Invest-in-India to Make-in-India, but he is not in a mood to take any advice from anyone other than those he feels has only India’s interests at heart. During the past 23 months in office, he has welcomed the largest number of foreign entrepreneurs, professionals and other icons than any of his illustrious predecessors at 7 Race Course. Yet, he has refrained from inducting foreign-educated advisors or experts sponsored by the West in key positions. 

He has been closely monitoring the role of foreign-funded NGOs and other consulting agencies, which were counseling various ministries on myriad social, economic, environmental and health issues. He instructed trusted officials in the Ministry of Home, Finance, the CBI and RAW to review the role of over 100 such outfits, which had found ingress into the government. According to Home Ministry sources, foreign-sponsored consultants were not only feeding data and exclusive information to other international agencies through their participation in global seminars and conferences, but also through various research-based NGOs in India. Some of these individuals and organisations were also directly or indirectly involved with those who have been hounding Modi since 2002. To add fat to the fire, key officials of these bodies were the ones who lobbied in the US and the West to deny Modi a visa. 

 Now, the government has drawn up for special scrutiny, a list of over 700 foreign-linked or -funded consultants working with ministries such as Power, Finance, Environment, Education, NITI Aayog, Roads and Transport, Agriculture, Non-Conventional Energy, Mining, Petroleum and Natural Gas and Defence Production . Even some of the prominent PSUs have been identified for special screening, thanks to their association with foreign consulting firms. The PMO is convinced that most development and infrastructural projects have been delayed for a decade and more, only because of the convoluted spins given by these firms to ensure that India will continue to depend heavily on imports. For example, during the early 1980s when Indira Gandhi was prime minister, a blueprint to make India fully self reliant in petroleum products by 1990 was finalised. Yet, even after 35 years, the country spends billions of dollars on importing crude oil. Even though the Health Ministry has the largest number of foreign-affiliated advisors, India still suffers from the maximum number of diseases and reels under an inefficient health administration. The environment ministry was home to consultants from the World Wide Fund of India, while experts from Britain’s DFID worked for both ministries of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation until December. Yet both the ministries haven’t been able to get rid of parasites. During one of the numerous ministerial reviews by the PMO, it was discovered that outside experts were hanging on to their jobs much beyond their contractual terms, on one pretext or the other. None of the senior officials or even the ministers could offer credible excuses for those still clinging on to the government. It was decided that the Home Ministry will do a thorough review of each one of them. 

The Ministry later on hinted that most of these consultants are tailoring their reports for ministers and bureaucrats to influence policies in such a way that it promotes the commercial interests of their parent agencies. For example, the government suspects that the quantum of the HIV/AIDS infected population in India was artificially raised to get, not only more funds from the Indian government but also to help specific pharma companies manufacturing medicines that treat AIDS. Highly exaggerated statistics on HIV victims has brought India a bad image in the world. What upset the Modi government was the inability of these consultants to reverse India’s negative image on hygiene, environmental protection, clean energy and inclusive education. Instead, the very institutions, which had drafted these experts into the government, have been playing anti-India roles on international platforms. 

The reality is that the Indian political leadership has been suffering from an inferiority complex since Independence. Since various prime ministers from Nehru to Manmohan Singh saw it as their mission to establish their imprints and road maps for faster economic development, they laterally inducted large number of experts hired by international agencies to assist the government. Manmohan even packed the Planning Commission with a record number of foreign consultants soon after taking over as prime minister in 2004. This led to furious protests from the Left, forcing him to abandon the move. The Finance Ministry has always been the preferred destination for foreign-educated economists. They have been following the revolving door principle. Almost all its Chief Economic Advisors have sometime or the other been on the rolls of foreign institutions that include universities. They come to serve India and go back to the West after the government, which appointed them was ousted. Numerous Parliamentarians and others have raised questions about the undesirable influence of these money mandarins on India’s fiscal and monetary policies, which they think are guided by the ideological fancy of their permanent habitat—the US. The ongoing purge of foreign elements from the government and other institutions appears to be part of Modi’s nationalist agenda. His message is loud and clever: while in government Work for India and Dream for India. 

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Instal A Genuine Modi Government... Power & Politics / The Sunday Standard/ December 27, 2015

Instal a Genuine Modi Government to Restore Your Image as Vikas Purush

If wishes were horses, the best wishes of millions of Indians, including mine, would be with you to seize the reins of a happy and productive 2016. You surprised the world by signing off 2015 with a unique Modi stamp, landing in Lahore to greet your newly acquired “friend” Nawaz Sharif on his birthday. Your creative diplomacy and perseverance have paid dividends abroad. In 2015, you also broke many records in setting the agenda for India’s social, economic and political discourse. You launched many new schemes and shook the bureaucracy out of its deep slumber. You may be disappointed with the limited success your government has achieved in legislative business, but disruptive politics is now an unfortunately unavoidable ingredient of the Indian democratic narrative. You will have to deal with an even more vicious and confrontationist Opposition in 2016.

Your government and politics will come under greater public scrutiny than in 2015. Every gesture and move of yours will be questioned both inside and outside Parliament. Emboldened by their success in Bihar, Delhi, and successful verdicts in several byelections and local body polls, the non-BJP opposition will target you personally as the father of failure. They will try to erase your image of a Vikas and Loh Purush. After all, in the demolition of the Modi icon lies the hope for the revival and survival of leaders without a message, mantra or mission. Even some of your colleagues, including a few trusted ones, are waiting in the wings for you to slip so that they can strike and bargain for more powers and crumbs. Despite political reverses in a few regions, your popularity is intact. Your admirers swear by your ability to deliver. So, you will be judged in 2016 by your ability to deliver on the initiatives you had announced in the past 20 months. For a new government, its first year is considered the year of understanding the system and setting new goals. The second is of delivery. The third is for consolidation, the fourth for expansion and the fifth for setting new targets to be included in the election manifesto. For your government, 2016 is a combination of the second and third year, and hence will be more demanding. Since the Opposition is itching to remind you of your myriad poll promises, you need to draw a feasible and credible road map for delivery on the following fronts:

• Black money: There is no doubt that the generators of black money fear the government is almost stealthily invisible in its investigations. The finance ministry, however, has met with limited success in bringing back black money. Even at home, little of the parallel economy has been revealed. Your detractors do not leave any opportunity to remind voters about the failure of your strong pitch against black money. Your stance against black money and corruption was one of the key factors which moved young voters in your favour. Most of them, however, are aghast with the meagre amount unearthed by agencies. The Congress is sure to exploit in every Assembly election this paltry action as one of the most visible signs of electoral betrayal. Your fight against corruption should assume a decisive turn in 2016.

• Make in India: Your call to foreign investors to open shop in India and make goods to be exported was one of the most innovative ideas to spur the manufacturing sector. According to statistics, FDI has shown a spectacular rise in 2015. But the MNCs are hesitating to invest in core manufacturing sectors. Barring e-commerce and services ventures, they have shown little interest in setting up new units, because their focus is on quick profits. You have magnanimously offered a flexible and attractive tax regime, but they are only interested in taking out more money from the country than they bring in. From 2009 onwards, foreign companies have repatriated more money out of India in the name of brand royalty fees, technology transfers, research and development support, expert advice etc. than they have invested in their Indian subsidiaries. Your colleagues in other ministries must ensure that all MOUs signed during your visits abroad are converted into production licences. Otherwise, your foes will use the same statistics to run your government down.

• Swachh Bharat: Never before has any national leader put so much emphasis on keeping India clean as you. You realised it is urgently needed to promote tourism and create a healthy nation. You rightly thought that a variety of iconic personalities and institutions would charge the mindset of ordinary citizens when used as ambassadors for your mission. The time has come to review their contributions to check whether all of them actually took part in spreading the message or just used the idea as an instrument of self-promotion. Most of them have vanished after their photo-ops. Your detractors are likely to use its less-than-expected success to mock what they call your adventurist ideas.

• Construction of toilets: If the numbers, which are being touted by various agencies, are any indication, your directive to construct toilets in villages has been a resounding success. But a reality check is required post-haste. Government agencies have spent the allotted funds to complete their targets in many districts. But a large number of toilets are either non-functional or have disappeared, since no accountability was fixed for maintenance. Already, visuals of newly constructed but filthy toilets are being shown on TV channels. Since they are facilities, which influence the voter directly, you will need the power of your authority to make this scheme work.

• Housing for all: Providing affordable housing was one of your initial promises. As you are aware, the real estate sector is going through its worst-ever crisis since Independence, with demand having nosedived to abysmal depths. Various government agencies have not taken enough initiatives to construct new houses under Centrally sponsored schemes. Over 700,000 residential units constructed by private companies remain unsold, since the ability of buyers to pay has been considerably eroded.

There are many such areas, which need your personal attention. As you know, politics is about perception. Success has many fathers, but failures have none. Those who voted for you would like you to lead from the front in 2016. You were given the mandate to rule with a mind of your own. So far, you have been depending on a team, which are assets for themselves than for the nation. Time has come for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to instal a genuine Modi government, which would complete all work under construction in an effective manner.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

PM Must Adopt Atal's Magnanimity ... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ November 29, 2015

PM Must Adopt Atal's Magnanimity and Indira's Firmness to Sustain his Leadership

With power comes great responsibility. Just in time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has woken up to the implications of being the most powerful man in the country and realised he cannot afford to leave governance to others. The buck stops at his desk. Last week, the standoffish saffron sultan used the dialogue device to power parliamentary politics, which had been derailed in the past few sessions. For the first time in 18 months, he invited his predecessor Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi for a chai pe charcha at 7 Race Course Road. Ostensibly, the 40-minute meeting appeared to be just an official parley between the head of state and the principal Opposition party to clear the GST logjam. They have been at loggerheads since Modi became Prime Minister. But their body language after the meeting signalled that Modi had made the first move to dispel the impression that he had any personal animosity towards the Congress leadership. He also indicated that he was willing to give the party the importance it deserves and take its concerns into consideration. Deftly, the PM had projected the fact that in a democracy, governance is based on consensus and not on majority muscle, even before the meeting happened. For the first time, Modi became an active participant in Lutyens’ Delhi politics, which he had so far vowed to shun. He had confined himself to diplomacy and pushing innovative schemes to earn him the laurels of being India’s most successful Prime Minister.

When he understood that his credibility as ‘the leader who delivers’ was being pummelled in India and abroad, he decided to abandon his majestic aloofness to mingle with those whom he ideologically abhorred the most. Myriad Modi promoters and supporters were dismayed that the government couldn’t get important legislations like the GST and Land Bill approved by Parliament. Modi has pushed his colleagues to open up the economy, so that investors look and feel visibly at ease in doing business in India. During the past few months, the NDA government has liberalised rules for foreign investment in important sectors like real estate, defence, banking, e-commerce, media and retail. Modi ignored protests from some sections of the Sangh Parivar. Despite many structural and growth-oriented reforms, his government was seen as non-performing amateur on the economic front. Additionally, its image got besmirched by irresponsible statements from some fringe elements in the Sangh Parivar. To add to this dismal dilemma, the award-wapsi campaign by prominent Leftist and secularist intellectuals fuelled negative publicity both at home and overseas. Finally, a humiliating defeat in Bihar dented Modi’s image of an invincible vote warrior, though it was the failure of state leaders to connect with the local electorate that had more to do with the debacle.

That didn’t deter his detractors to gleefully connect his parliamentary softening with BJP’s Bihar debacle. True, it is not a coincidence that he decided to engage with the Opposition only after the Bihar elections were over. According to PMO insiders, he was being given the impression that many interlocutors, including senior ministers, were in constant touch with all parliamentary stakeholders to ensure the smooth passage of crucial bills such as GST. The truth is, none of the intermediaries dealing with the Congress had ever discussed the possibility of a powwow between the Congress leadership and Prime Minister to resolve existing conflicts. Both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi made it publicly clear that no BJP minister ever discussed GST or any other pending legislative issues with them. A large section of the party’s top guns and some senior ministers are opposed to a dialogue with the Congress. They want punitive action taken against Congress leaders—including sitting and former chief ministers—and hammer through cases in various courts. Various investigative agencies like the Enforcement Directorate and CBI have been instructed to dig up dirt on every Congress politician who matters. Undoubtedly, many of them were involved in financial irregularities when in power, but their party leadership is splenetic over the speed with which the government is pursuing the cases. Additionally, some prominent ministers were ranting against Congress leaders at a time when the PMO was initiating an inter-party dialogue.

Modi’s personal initiative, however, is going to change the way Delhi politics is being managed. Modi is a networker par excellence. He was one of the most active BJP general secretaries during the mid 1990s. He enjoyed immense personal rapport with leaders across the political spectrum. But he became a political pariah after the Gujarat riots. Most national leaders, corporate honchos and Bollywood stars became his cacophonous critics. He was spurned by the goliaths of the social and political hierarchy. For 12 years, he had to confine himself to Gujarat. As a result, his confidence and capacity to deal with formidable opponents suffered much. Then he surprised all by rising like a sphinx during the Lok Sabha elections and captained a record-breaking electoral victory for the BJP. He was in no mood for a political dialogue with his detractors. Ever since he became the Prime Minister, Modi had refrained from entertaining any of the Opposition leaders on a personal level, meeting them only at all-party meetings. He did conceive NITI Aayog, where he could interact with chief ministers. But it wasn’t Chanakyaesque enough to give him the sly, silky skills needed to negotiate New Delhi’s viciously tortuous political labyrinth. His experience of the past few months in the capital has made him realise that he can’t confine himself to the Zen of just being the Prime Minister, leaving political punditry to others. Modi’s conclave with Congress leaders last week is just the beginning of a series of encounters, which he is planning with other political protagonists too. So far, he has stuck to meeting foreign dignitaries, celebrities from India and abroad as well as his trusted aides. His success as the supreme national leader will depend on his ability to adopt the mellow magnanimity of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the unalloyed firmness of Indira Gandhi.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

National Interest will be the Biggest Casualty ...... Power & Politics / The Sunday Standard/ November 22, 2015

National Interest Will be the Biggest Casualty in the Politics of Personality Clashes

Positive politics is fuelled by an obsession for change, while a political obsession is often fuelled by a confrontation between relentless rivals. Often, it strays into the treacherous territory of vicious verbosity banishing all logical debate and dialogue, thus placing democratic institutions in danger of moral destitution. Last week, the Congress and BJP were locked in a Waterloo of Words, the worst-ever since the NDA government assumed power. Usually political parties settle down to the serious business of governance and legislation as soon as an election gets over. But the two mainstream parties, which have been engaged in a fusillade of fulminations since the Bihar polls, were expected to engage each other in resolving many legislative issues pending in Parliament. Personal attacks on personalities rather than on ideologies, however, are likely to paralyse the process of governance. The Bihar polls were fought around the calculus of personality power. All contesting parties spewed the worst invectives against their opponents. The political warfare was confined to two central personalities—PM Narendra Modi and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi. It was evident that both the parties expect that all future battles would be fought around personas, not policies. India’s new politics now revolves around crafting strategies, which aim at building, promoting, demolishing and tarring leaders. Ideology is dead. Individuals with high-calorie egos wrote its obit. The breaking down of dialogue is contaminating democracy with the warring egos of leaders, an ominous sign for the people who have elected them in the hope of a better India.

The BJP set the tone of the tension-torn talkathon with its firebrand leader Subramanian Swamy firing the first salvo at Rahul, alleging he floated private companies in the UK, declaring himself as a British citizen. The Congress refuted this vociferously. (Previously, Haryana CM Manohar Lal Khattar had announced that Robert Vadra would be flung in jail within six months.) The BJP leadership joined the anti-Rahul tirade and demanded an explanation. The Congress, emboldened by its Bihar success, retaliated with abounding aggression. Young Mr G led the counter-attack. Instead of the BJP, it was the PM he had in his cross hairs. Rahul went ballistic, “I want to say this Modiji, it’s your government, you have all the agencies. Set them after me. Show your 56-inch chest. Launch an investigation against me and if you find anything in six months, put me in jail. But stop using your lackeys to throw dirt at me or my family.” He also added, “Our Prime Minister doesn’t take interest in Parliament. He and his government don’t take interest in the questions raised by the Opposition.” Taking the cue from Rahul, other Congress loyalists opened fire on Modi. Mani Shankar Aiyar, a Gandhi loyalist, showed his venomous side in the Pak media. According to TV reports, he said, “First, it is required to remove Modi, otherwise talks will not move forward. We’ll have to wait for four years. These people are very optimistic about Modi, they think that talks will move forward with Modi’s presence, but I don’t think so.”

The Congress obsession with Modi can be well understood because he has broken its political monopoly by singlehandedly getting the BJP a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. He is perceived as the most popular and effective PM since Indira Gandhi. The Congress fear is that as long as Modi’s credibility and acceptability remains intact, it doesn’t stand any chance of regaining power at the Centre. As a well thought-out strategy, Mr G has always kept Mr M in his firing line. To begin with, he termed the government a suit-boot ki sarkar. Later on, he made fun of the PM’s alleged proximity to corporate czars. Rahul has made it clear to his party leaders that the Congress shouldn’t mind sacrificing its interests in a couple of states if it means damaging Modi’s image. It entered into an alliance in Bihar only to ensure that the PM’s image as an invincible leader was damaged. According to party insiders, Rahul, Nitish and Lalu ensured the Battle for Bihar was converted into a fight between Modi and the rest. The Congress has drawn up a detailed plan to track Modi’s performance as PM and his dealings with various state governments. Rahul’s own mandate is to hold Modi responsible for all the failures of the government and the BJP. The Congress will not hesitate to make more personal attacks on the PM. Its high command is convinced that with the economy performing poorly, Modi’s image as a Vikas Purush will be eroded, making it easy for them to diminish him further. Moreover, the party and its promoters have decided to focus the limelight on Rahul, since they feel he is the only leader with pan-Indian recognition. Though his organisational skills and ideological moorings are yet to be established, the Congress continues to believe only Rahul can take on Modi effectively because age is on his side.

Ironically, if the Congress is determined to swim or sink with Rahul, the BJP has also decided to focus on Mr G. Soon, India will witness a direct fight between the BJP and Congress in more than half of the coming state polls. Hence, the ruling NDA would like to minimise the Rahul impact. During the next 12 months, elections will be held in West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, etc. The BJP is unlikely to perform well in any of them. A humiliating defeat would adversely affect the image of the BJP and PM. The BJP’s strategy would be to prevent Rahul or the Congress from becoming the leading player in forging an anti-BJP alliance. Since Mr G has almost taken charge of the Congress party, the BJP would like to rein him in before he blossoms into a nationally acceptable leader. Some BJP leaders have already been assigned to dig as much as dirt as possible on him.

The major victim of the burgeoning bitterness between the two major parties is going to be the forthcoming Parliament session. The government was expected to extend an olive branch to the Congress to push through its agenda for good governance. It has to revive the feel-good environment in the country so that domestic production and employment can pick up. A constructive cooperation between the ruling party and the Opposition could also facilitate implementation of some of the innovative schemes launched by the PM. Unfortunately, negative elements in both the parties are determined to keep personal feuds alive to prevent losing their relevance and utility in their outfits. In the clash of personalities, it is the national interest, which will be the biggest casualty.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

BJP only lowering Modi's Cachet .... Power & Politics / The Sunday Standard/ September 27, 2015

BJP Only Lowering Modi’s Cachet by Turning National Debate into NaMo vs RaGa Battle

‘Love me, hate me but don’t ignore me’ is the phrase de jour of Rahul Gandhi and his party. The success of any leader lies in his ability to provoke both his friends and foes to keep on talking about him or her. It’s one of the most successful methods to beat the popular belief that out of sight means out of mind. In the slipstream of his frequent disappearances, it is this message that Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi leaves behind for both his promoters and detractors. Last week, RaGa once again decided to take a break from his pusillanimous political tourism at home. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in the US for a diplomatic-cum-commercial covenant with the global alpha group, RaGa chose some arcane venue to engage in academic and intellectual acrobatics with a battery of opinion shakers and makers.

Unlike Modi, the Congress scion was not hot news for the American media or establishment. He, however, managed to capture almost the same amount of mind and media space back home as Modi. A leader who’s yet to show his mettle to win a major political battle for his 129-year-old party, Rahul and his cohorts were happily preening in the attention they have got; more for his absence than his actions. The quality of the political narrative and debate has been debased so much that, now, even a private visit of a political leader becomes an instrument to score brownie points. How does it matter to any normal Indian if Rahul or any other leader spreads his carbon footprint, whether it be to Aspen or Brisbane? At a time when most Indian leaders are discussing the implications of the Bihar Assembly elections on the NDA and its loquacious leader, a section of hyper-committed political sympathisers were speculating about the venue, nature and characters who would be dining and wining with a Gandhi 12,000 miles away from the dust and drumbeats of political war.

So it has come to this! It seems that all it takes to be a leader today is to grab prime time spots and make front-page news for something he or she has hardly done or said, which is relevant to the ordinary citizens. Inexplicably, the BJP seems to be obsessed with the idea of Rahul Gandhi as a mass leader. Instead of ignoring his antics, wannabe BJP leaders are fiercely engaged in a verbal competition with each other on how to attack Rahul for his periodic vanishing acts. New-age BJP leaders prefer personality-bashing over beating their opponents ideologically. If Modi is anathema for the Congress, for the BJP, RaGa appears to be the worst thing that has ever happened to Indian politics.

Last week, hardly did a day pass without BJP leaders aggressively asking the Congress leadership about the whereabouts of a leader who barely has any significant role to play in running the establishment. They were accusing his ‘bhagoda’ act from the Bihar electionscape as a betrayal, as if the Congress poses any threat to the NDA. The party has been given 40 Assembly seats as an act of charity by the Nitish-Lalu combo to contest in the state, but is already finding it difficult to identify eligible candidates. The attrition between the BJP and Congress has centred more around the reasons for Rahul’s foreign visit than on the successful sojourn of the Prime Minister to the US. The BJP is convinced that by targeting RaGa incessantly on even inane issues, it can make him the least acceptable alternative to NaMo. From all visible indicators, RaGa is myriad miles behind the Prime Minister in terms of popularity and credibility. If the ferocity and frequency of the BJP’s offensive against the peripatetic princeling exceeds its voltage of venom against the Congress party, then it is evident that Rahul has hit the BJP where it hurts the most.

RaGa habitually makes fun of the Prime Minister at his rallies. Since the Gandhis are not big crowd pullers like Modi, they are restricting their public contact by choosing to engage with only a well-defined target audience. For the past two months, RaGa has addressed students, women, farmers, youth, Dalits, party workers et al. Instead of expounding on the Congress agenda, he has been viciously vituperative against Modi for betraying the mandate of the people. Rahul has been lampooning the NDA government for its failure to bring back black money and tame inflation. He has been repeatedly calling the NDA government a suit boot ki sarkar.

Undoubtedly, RaGa is more focused and confident since his return to active politics from a long sabbatical this year. His strategy appears to be only to provoke the BJP. And the saffron party has obliged by walking into his trap. Fortunately, its top leaders like party president Amit Shah and Prime Minister Modi have refrained from even indirectly naming the Congress princelet in their political speeches. In the age of political marketing, various parties are expected to choose their target audience carefully and create a message accordingly. Modi understood this truth and mastered the art of selling himself. He could get a buy-in from all sections of the electorate because he could reveal many earthy things about himself. In contrast, RaGa is now selling himself without having much to say about himself. If his dismally low popularity is slowly heading north, the credit must go to his rivals and not the Congress or his marketers. Never before in the political bazaar has a leader been so conspicuous by his absence than his presence. RaGa has decided to dump the upper middle class and urban elite totally since they seem robotically mesmerised by the Modi mantra. His focus is on bringing back the traditional Congress vote bank of labourers, marginal farmers, Dalits and minorities, which has spurned it. It is to this segment that RaGa wants to project Modi as a pro-rich leader.

The Congress has been losing elections because it is seen to be an outfit that promotes corruption and crony capitalism. RaGa knows his foreign visits matter little to his highly polarised electorate. In fact, there are many rich and mighty in India who would be admiring him for going on holiday like they do. With Indian elections becoming more and more personality-driven, the GOP would like RaGa to stay on top of mind of the people. It is unable to displace Modi from public space, since his public connect through the Demosthenic power of his words and the novelty of new ideas reigns supreme. Rahul’s unique invisibility should have been the natural victim of Modi’s excessive and choreographed visibility. But by making his periodic AWOL an incessant issue, the BJP is lowering Modi’s cachet by turning the national debate into a NaMo vs RaGa battle for the future.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Under Siege for Others' Failure ...... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ September 06, 2015

Under Siege for Others' Failures, Modi Must Win Back Trust of His Core Constituents

Like it or not, Prime Minister Narendrabhai Damodar Das Modi is not one who easily forgives or forgets. His assertive actions and proactive policies during the past 16 months have proved he hasn’t forgiven those who are deemed inefficient, politically motivated and place roadblocks in his march to achieving his mission. He has moved, removed and dumped them. Yet, in his endeavour to achieve the maximum in minimum time, the PM and his adjutants seem to have forgotten the many covenants he had made with the people during the 2014 elections. This may be an oversight on his part or has happened because of misplaced trust in many of his ministers and civil servants. As the PM, his performance has been exemplary on the global front. He has restored India’s prestige worldwide. He is seen as a leader who means business. He has sown the seeds of many innovative ideas, which when harvested will make India a world power.

But the Modi establishment has forgotten the PM’s committed constituencies at the cost of pleasing brown nosers. In his 2014 election campaign, Modi had wisely chosen his target audience—farmers, nationalists, students, middle class, business community, retired armymen and corporates. He made it a point to address the grievances of each section and vowed to resolve them soon after coming to power. But 16 months later, the groups, which had taken up Modi’s cause as their own, are experiencing a crisis of faith. They feel his government has not acted enough to address their issues. Since they had made stellar contributions towards getting the BJP seize a majority on its own, they were expecting the NDA to give priority to their demands. Most upset are the over three million-strong retired soldiers and war widows who were convinced that their 40-year-old demand for One Rank, One Pension (OROP) would be accepted by the dispensation they voted for.

Modi began his election campaign from Rewari in Haryana where he addressed a huge rally of defence veterans, whom he assured that his government would meet their legitimate demand for OROP. Through the past year, various BJP leaders, from the PM to party president Amit Shah, have reiterated their commitment to implement it. The delay forced faujis to go on an indefinite fast at Jantar Mantar—India’s  ground zero of protest. What angered them were the excuses trotted out by Cabinet ministers about financial constraints regarding OROP. They fumed when the finance ministry accepted in less than 48 hours a panel report which recommended a repeal of the retrospective Minimum Alternative Tax on Foreign Investment Institutions. India’s defence personnel were wondering why a government that’s ready to forgo over `40,000 crore (a figure not disputed by the government) to keep up the morale of foreigners, could not find `8000-10,000 crore for those who had laid down or risked their lives for the country. They feel North Block has misled the PM about the financial impact of OROP on the exchequer. They were furious with bureaucrats for obstructing its implementation even after Modi’s directive to proceed. The PM was kept in the dark that the OROP fighters were asking for nothing more than what civil servants who belong to All India Services like the IAS and IFS get. Uncouth attempts were made to divide the protesters by planting stories in the media. Ultimately, it was a combined push from saner elements in the BJP and RSS which compelled the government to resolve the issue. But when the government decided to do it, it didn’t reflect its magnanimity.

Apart from the ones in uniform who have retired, India’s youth are also being short-changed. The PM’s vision of creating more jobs has reached nowhere near the launch pad. On the other hand, shoddy handling of the Pune-based FTII irked even Modi’s sworn Bollywood supporters. Many film personalities who were in the forefront of campaigning for ‘Modi for PM’ protested the manner in which young minds were being mishandled. The PM has been engaging students and the youth through national radio and television. But all these popular exercises have not translated into practical action on the ground.

The nation’s youth, accounting for over 50 per cent of India’s cell phone-owning population, are outraged over the frequent call drops, which are almost emptying their pockets. The telecom ministry woke up only when Modi understood the damage it was causing his government. But the ministry is still soft-pedalling on the issue. It has roped in TRAI, which has given further time to mobile companies to set their house in order. Next, the civil aviation ministry remains totally blase about the exorbitant, arbitrary fares being charged by airlines. It is again Modi’s staunch middle class support base, which is feeling the pinch. Despite protests by air travellers, the ministry has been dawdling on the runway. Finally Modi got into the cockpit. But this, too, is unlikely to yield results because ministry officials have always favoured airline bosses.

As the youth and middle class fret about a fruitful future in the Age of Modi, Indian farmers are just as worried about the devastating drought in Maharashtra and Karnataka due to a deficit monsoon. Earlier they were living under the fear of their land being acquired according to a new law. A few senior ministers pushed the Land Bill in such an aggressive manner that they alienated the entire farming community. Finally, it was left to the PM to intervene and save any further erosion of his popularity. But he has to accelerate his vow to bring back black money. The Congress never misses an opportunity to attack Modi for his failure to recover the loot. The apex court has been seeking reports from the finance ministry on the steps taken by the government in this direction. A few senior party functionaries and diehard Modi supporters have approached the court seeking immediate action.

Most surprising is the whispering campaign by top corporates against the Modi government’s inability to revive the economy. The finance ministry’s failure to evolve a consensus on the GST Bill has irked India Inc. They sing paeans of praise for the government in public, but in private they collectively damn India’s economic future by blaming it all on none other than the PM. Unfortunately Modi is under siege for the failure of others in his government. It is not just an accident that his constituents are becoming captives of forgotten promises.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Modi, Instead of Extending Olive Branch, ..... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ July 12, 2015

Modi, Instead of Extending Olive Branch, Should Isolate Pakistan Globally to Resolve Stand-off

PM Narendra Modi with Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif

History is a saga of surprises. The plain-speaking PM Narendra Modi has never been referred to as a diplomat. His meeting, however, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Ufa, Russia, brought out a hitherto hidden aspect of his personality. Contrary to his usually loquacious self during confabulations with foreign leaders, he hardly spoke a word before or after his awkward assignation with his counterpart. Modi didn’t move an inch from his designated place to welcome Sharif, who had to walk over 50 steps forward for a handshake. At the end of an elastically hour-long rehearsed dialogue, Modi revealed himself as a polished diplomat who could tell someone to go to hell in such a manner that the person would actually look forward to the trip. Only time will tell if Sharif has walked into a trap laid by Modi or not, but it is evident that the Indian PM has changed the terms of engagement with Pakistan.

South Block mandarins wouldn’t relish the concept of a former Indian police officer and a Pakistani economist discussing the contours of the Indo-Pak relationship. The envoy class has so far been living under the illusion that international relations and dialogue was their monopoly. As has been proved time and again, only generals settle disputes while diplomats are kept busy doing policy pantomimes. By proposing the resumption of a dialogue between two leaders who are non-diplomats by training and tutelage, Modi has delinked terrorism from diplomacy. It is perhaps for the first time that the National Security Advisors of India and Pakistan will set the tone and tenor of discussions between both countries. The only previous example was when Brajesh Mishra, the NSA to PM Vajpayee, held discussions with his Pakistani counterpart Tariq Aziz just before the SAARC summit in 2003. But then, Mishra was also a former diplomat and the principal secretary to the PM. Modi had opposed a soft approach towards Pakistan during his 2014 election campaign when he held the UPA government responsible for the ‘Mar Jawan, Mar Kisan’ (Die Soldier, Die Farmer) atmosphere prevailing in the country. But in Ufa, he opted for the Vajpayee line, which espoused mature magnanimity by giving peace yet another chance.

It is still unclear why and how did Modi decide to resume direct contact with Pakistan. A few days before the Ufa meeting, Javed Ashraf Qazi, a senior Pakistan minister and former ISI chief, warned India that Pakistan will not hesitate to nuke India if needed. The Pakistan army also killed two Indian soldiers along the LoC. The NDA and UPA had previously called off talks after the rising number of border violations, and the Pakistan ambassador to India inviting J&K separatists for discussions incensed New Delhi. There are no indications that Modi had any formal or informal consultations with the members of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) over meeting Sharif before leaving for Russia. Other members of the CCS such as Home Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley were either travelling or busy with other assignments. It is obvious that Modi took the gamble on his own. There must have been some pressing compulsions for the PM to deviate from his pre-election stance. Modi, it seems, has made a fair assessment about the impact the meeting would have on his core constituency and the opportunity it would provide the Opposition to attack him. Since NSA Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary S Jaishanker were accompanying him, the PM made a unique decision. If the past record of Jaishanker is to go by, he would have pushed for a full-scale dialogue, since he has always favoured the US line on Indo-Pak. On the other hand, Doval is a hawk who has always pushed for an end to Pak-sponsored terror as a precondition for resumption of a meaningful dialogue. For Modi, the choice was between Do Nothing and Talk Everything diplomacy or following a Shame Pakistan, Secure India strategy. He voted for security.

Though the details about the terms of the NSA-level talks are yet to emerge, it is clear that Pakistan has agreed to discuss “terror in all forms”. Modi’s detractors could find fault with the government for agreeing to provide fresh evidence about the perpetrators of the 26/11 massacre because the UPA claims it had given enough proof for speeding up the trial in Pakistan. The PM may also face the ire of his supporters for not raising the issue strongly enough of prosecuting Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi and Hafiz Saeed—financiers and masterminds of terror attacks in India. The only ironic solace for the PM will be the support he will receive at home from those who ideologically and personally abhor Modi but adore him when they feel he thinks like them on Pakistan.

But the success of Modi’s unconventional diplomatic adventurism in Ufa is tenuously linked with Sharif’s ability and capacity to deliver on the terror front. The idea of Pakistan survives and thrives only on anti-India fervour and actions. Terrorists and fire-spewing Pak generals know well that this nefarious notion of Pakistan will die the day its leaders and citizens start breaking bread with their Indian counterparts, and cricketers of both nations start running between the wickets to the applause of excited crowds. Pakistan was born out of hatred for India. The army has controlled it for the past 60 years, with the sole objective of remaining in a state of visible and covert warfare with India. The rise of Islamist fundamentalism nourished by the Pakistan army has made it impossible for even a tiny section of moderate elements across the border to mount pressure on their government to fight the fanatics in the system. The warmongers have sabotaged and subverted every legitimate move to settle all contentious issues with India.

Modi has to remember that Pakistan has contemptuously betrayed the Indian leadership too often by aiding and abetting terror attacks on India just before and after Indian PMs initiated peace moves. It has forced three wars on us. Both countries have signed over a dozen joint statements and mutual agreements on culture, economic and educational relations. None of these have moved forward because of unabated Pakistan-sponsored terror threat to India. All the confidence-building measures (CBMs) have achieved nothing except more blood and mayhem on Indian soil.

The sadistic twist in the tale is that Pakistan has been able to reacquire international acceptability by projecting itself as a victim of homegrown terror. Despite providing sanctuary to terrorists, it has been able to wrangle financial and military equipment from the three powerful members of the UN Security Council—US, China and Russia. Modi has to realise that the solution to the subcontinental standoff doesn’t lie in succumbing to the sugar-coated opinions of the peaceniks, pseudo-secularists and lovers of lavish Pakistani hospitality. India’s success depends on his strategy to globally isolate Pakistan and convince world leaders that today’s idea of Pakistan is a danger to them as much as it is to India. The rest of the world can use it against India only at its own peril. Pakistan can sow satanic seeds of an apocalypse, which can obliterate with fire more towers in New York, restaurants in Bali, media organisations in France, tube stations in London and hotels in India.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Time to Add Large-hearted........ Power & Politics / The Sunday Standard/ July 05, 2015

Time to Add Large-hearted Vajpayeeism to Govt and More of Upadhyay's Credo to Party

Amit Shah with Narendra Modi

Dear Amitji,

Two weeks ago, I wrote in my column that the real target of the attack on select Union ministers and BJP chief ministers is the Prime Minister. In the past few days, many penmeisters and opinion organists have proved me correct by making collaborative comments on the political scene. Some have even raised querulous questions on the credibility of Narendra Modi vis-à-vis Lalit Modi, the controversial Cricket Samrat. By no stretch of imagination can they be compared except by their last name. Ironically, that too also separates the two. Prime Minister Modi is an austere Gujarati, while the Cricket Commando Modi loves to “live life king-size”, as goes the slogan for Four Square cigarettes, produced by the Modi family-owned Godfrey Phillips. Picking Lalit Modi to tar the image of the PM is the stepchild of twisted logic. NaMo is the BJP’s most powerful brand, marketed as a political product, which is miles ahead of its nearest rivals. The PM’s detractors would love to demolish this brand, which will dent      the BJP.

You will agree that it is after many decades that the Sangh Parivar has found a person who can capture the political market with his style and substance. But now, millions of BJP karyakartas and adhikaris have to protect his value by functioning as a vigilant marketing team. You have broken the record by enrolling the highest number of members for the BJP, making it the world’s largest political party. You have also broken records set by your predecessors by covering almost all the 29 states and all the Union Territories. You are in the process of creating a band of young leaders who believe in NaMo and your leadership. But it is your responsibility to insulate the Modi government from vicious attacks emanating from inside the party and outside. The government publicity machinery has failed to reverse the current anti-NaMo perception. Cosy dinners with media mavens, columnists and opinionated intellectuals haven’t paid dividends so far. In fact, the tone and tenor of the MSM have ratcheted up the virulence after prolonged talk fests over gourmet food. Perhaps, what transpired afterwards influenced the minds of the media barons and celebrities. Ironically, a leader, who provided a corruption-free government for a year, is being blamed for violating public probity. When the government apparatus is drowning in a flood of insinuations, it is the party’s job to come to the rescue of its leader.

The time has come for you to step in. The BJP needs to choose its friends carefully and monitor enemies with an eagle eye. There seems to be an attempt to ignore the party’s core constituency and woo those who dine with you but whine with your worst enemies. If you too indulge them, the victims will be the party and PM. The new leadership is yet to acquire credibility with the cadre, in spite of its cutting-edge instruments of communications. Because of your perennial peregrinations, your accessibility to middle-level ministers and office-bearers is limited. They neither have the acumen nor the ability to counter the bombardment of biased opponents directed at NaMo by opponents who flaunt facetious facts with delicate diction in TV studios. The BJP and its government are confused over the target audience of these talking televisionistas. Party insiders notice a covert but ominous conflict between the ersatz liberals in the government and the BJP, and committed nationalist right-wing cadre. Even the PM has acquired the image of a nationalist Leftie who promotes nationalism with welfare state nuances. NaMo and you are ideologically uncomfortable with Nehruvian culture and politics. Both of you are pure Bharatiyas who smell Bharatiyata, practise Bharatiyata and promote Bharatiyata. This has put you in direct conflict with those who hold Indian passports but project themselves as only global citizens. So when you promoted yoga, they adopted an antagonistic posture against the PM’s Indian cultural idiom. When NaMo does his Mann ki Baat, they snigger over cocktails. The BJP’s pronounced policy of Indianising culture, heritage and curriculum threatens the survival of those whose understanding of the Bharatiya way of life is flawed. They stand to lose their elite status acquired through elitist education and luxurious upbringing. If the Bharatiya becomes stronger, they lose their relevance as theoretical tautologists.

The sustained attack on some leaders is to weaken those carrying forward, rightly or wrongly, the Hindutva agenda. Ministers like Smriti Irani and Sushma Swaraj have become eyesores for secularists because they have shaken a system that was controlled by Left-wing intellectuals and Nehruvian acolytes. Irani has dismantled much of the previous academic infrastructure, which was used to sabotage Indian heritage, literature, economics and sociology. She has inducted those who can effectively flush out imbalanced internationalists. Swaraj has helped restore India’s dominance in international affairs. Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis has been hyperactive in cleansing the state’s corrupt and indolent establishment. So, it was no surprise that he was targeted viciously for a fabricated act of negligence. Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje may have committed an act of indiscretion in the Lalit saga, but her fall will weaken the BJP in the state. The campaign against MoS for Home Kiren Rijiju is aimed at destroying the credibility of a government, which is the first to focus on developing the Northeast. NaMo and the BJP had dictated the agenda and terms of public discourse during and after the polls. Now it is the reverse. A coalition of disjointed political parties and retired, tired and fired self-seekers are defining the terms of engagement.

You are going to be the next target of your adversaries, who have inflicted a sliver of slight on the PM’s stature. So far, you have won important elections and revived the party. But ever since the BJP’s devastating defeat in the Delhi Assembly polls, questions are being raised about your organisational skills and capacity to win votes.

Your detractors hope Bihar will be your Waterloo. If you fail in Pataliputra, they would take pride in the fall of a colossus who is NaMo’s most powerful general. You have to be careful in choosing your point-men in Bihar. It is possible a part of the current crisis of credibility is due to your heavy dependence on those who have moved up the party ladder mainly by their loyalty to certain leaders. Delhi was lost because you walked into a trap by choosing outsider Kiran Bedi as the CM candidate over more deserving leaders from within. In Bihar and UP, you have been bubble-wrapped by a cabal to prevent you from receiving contrarian views from all. Those who are loyal to the saffron creed and have faith in NaMo’s leadership are getting isolated. As the party president, it’s time for you to add a bit of large-hearted Vajpayeeism to the government and more of Deendayal Upadhyay’s credo to the party. Any attempt to make the BJP inclusive by including party-hoppers and globetrotters would pose a cataclysmic challenge, eclipsing the one being posed by Gandhi Parivar. Modi won the war by demolishing them. You shouldn’t lose the next one because of them.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Cricketainment Googlies Bowled ..... Power & Politics / The Sunday Standard / June 28, 2015

Cricketainment Googlies Bowled to LaMo, But Aimed at NaMo, Which He Must Squarely Deflect

Public discourse and narratives are expected to deal with issues and ideologies, and not individuals. But authors, promoters and hawkers of new politics, and even newer journalism, are now setting new norms of public conduct. Even though they lack both intellectual calibre and self-identity, these faux-intellectuals and neo-moralists are defining the role and conduct of integral institutions like the judiciary, the executive, journalism and politics. Instead of collecting the facts first and coming to conclusions later, they decide the verdicts in advance by resorting to selective information or manufacturing fiction to bolster their conclusions.

Something brazenly bizarre is happening in Indian politics. The ongoing acerbic war of words on former IPL czar Lalit Modi is not confined to any issue regarding governance or policy. It simply revolves around Lalit’s morning tweets about a few individuals. All political parties and mediapersons latch on to his naughty tweets to make, unmake and tar the images of those being gleefully mentioned by Lalit. Questions are being raised not about money laundering, match-fixing or political impropriety, but on the integrity of the supporters and contrarians over the Lalit Saga. Even the names of the dramatis personae are selectively leaked and then discussed ad nauseam. According to sources close to Lalit, over 50 prominent personalities from the corporate and legal world, Bollywood, sports and culture participated in the proceedings in London courts where the case against Lalit was being heard. Mysteriously, only a few names are on the conversation list while many others are kept under the wraps for unknown reasons.

There is nothing wrong in taking a position on an issue. After all each case has two sides to the story. I was one of the witnesses who went to London three years ago to attend one of the hearings in my personal capacity and at my own expense. My stand was limited to the question of political vendetta against the person who created the world’s finest sports league, which in 2014 generated a revenue of $7.2 billion and made many players, sports administrators and team owners super-rich and mighty. But hubris gets the better of anyone who gets high on the champagne of success. It happened with Lalit too. He became arrogant and started taking on the leviathans in the BCCI. My deposition in court was limited to the general perception that Lalit was singled out for persecution for alleged financial misdemeanours while other powerful members of the IPL and BCCI who were party to all the decisions were spared by the investigative agencies. The top judiciary of the UK found that all the witnesses and written depositions were credible. But Indian roadside justice-deliverers found them questionable. They are happy to deliver vigilante verdicts on the Lalits and the Shahs but retreat into a laminated shell of awe when it comes to the Gandhis.

The current commercial contractors of probity in public life are trying to taint every individual, including Justice Jeevan Reddy—the epitome of honesty and impeccable integrity in public life—for stating what he found to be legally correct. Such tangential aspersions raise another fundamental question on the democracy of truth. Just because a person has held the office of a judge, a minister or an editor, does he lose his fundamental right to freedom of expression? Can an honest opinion or a factual testimony given by a retired judge or a prominent journalist be treated as an act of quid pro quo sans proof? But the lynch mob that delivers instant justice believes no one else can express his or her opinion. Since they control the levers of power and the media, they can screech day in day out about the alleged impropriety committed by others while forgetting their own inglorious past, which would be blatantly blemished if judged by their own standards. The Indian media and other self-appointed deities of honesty give clean chits to many tainted corporate honchos or conceal information that would affect their friends, but claim immunity from any charge of favouritism. Unfortunately, those who have received patronage from the government—current or previous—in the form of directorships, foreign assignments and think-tank posts are the ones giving lectures about the ethics of people who lack access to the establishment unless they are members of an elite club class or a college or a school.

It is quite evident that the Lalit Saga is a Machiavellian attempt to settle personal scores and dent the image of PM Narendra Modi. The BJP has been rightly claiming for the past year that it has provided a scam-free government. The Opposition hasn’t been able to offer any credible evidence of financial corruption against any top BJP leader or a Central minister. If BJP sources are to be believed, national polity has become the pitch for dirty cricket politics. Since some of the top leaders in the Opposition and the NDA have been active participants in the multi-billion-dollar cricketainment industry, they are digging up dirt on their own colleagues to retain indirect control over the game and the party’s decision-making forums. For the past few years, no visible action has been taken against any powerful personality involved in any of the cricket scams. Even BJP MPs are speaking against each other. This has resulted in collateral damage to the personal image of the PM who has been exclusively focusing on governance. By letting the alleged malpractices of his Cabinet ministers, CMs or any state minister to dominate primetime headlines and drawing room confabulations, NaMo’s detractors inside and outside are determined to downsize his image as a person who doesn’t take any nonsense. It is also an attempt to erode his authority as PM. The Congress sees Lalitgate as a god-sent opportunity to tarnish Modi. As BJP ministers indulge in an “I-am-cleaner-than-my-colleague” competition, the Congress objective is to extract the scalp of at least one of the leaders involved in the controversy so that NaMo remains crippled for the rest of his term. What could be worse for a leader like him if a 44-MP party can inflict a festering political wound on the 54-inch chest of the PM within 14 months of his tenure?

Moreover, the entire crop of the non-BJP leadership, from the extreme Left to the Congress, would welcome a highly demoralised PM and a divided BJP taking to the campaign trail during the crucial Bihar elections. Modi has no option but to deflect the missiles emanating from the subverted silos of Lalit Saga by targeting his foes carefully and choosing his friends wisely. He must find out who gains from his failure.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

The Outcome of the War ........ Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ June 14, 2015

The Outcome of the War in Pataliputra Will Lay Future Contours of Road to Indraprastha

Power corrupts even the saintly. The insatiable hunger for absolute power corrupts ideology, absolutely beyond redemption. An elegy of moral belief is being penned in Bihar as the countdown for the crucial Assembly elections begins. Individuals seeking power at any post and cost are incinerating ideologies. Hence, the irony of opportunism was lost on Bihar CM Nitish Kumar when he drove down to the residence of Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi—who had accused him of duplicity in 2010—to strike a political deal to contest the elections. For the past 40 years, Patna’s political pugilist has survived and thrived by fighting the dynastic ethos of the Congress. Nitish and senior colleagues in the Janata Parivar have, in the past, used the choicest invectives against Sonia, Rahul and the Congress. It is indeed a paradox that on the eve of the 40th anniversary of the declaration of Emergency on June 25, 1975, the very same detainees of despotism are extending their hands of friendship to those whose party and family inflicted vicious wounds on individual liberty. Next week, leaders of all the factions of the Janata Parivar and Left parties are likely to conspire and confabulate on seat-sharing for the Assembly polls. They are flirting with each other, not for the purpose of providing an alternative model of good governance but with the only objective to put a brake on the Modi juggernaut in Bihar.

History repeats itself. In political history, new players who adopt the practices and slogans of the past are incarnated when power and populism intersect. Forty years ago, forces from the extreme Right to the extreme Left got together with the regional parties and coined the slogan ‘Indira Hatao, Desh Bachao (defeat Indira, save the nation)’. None of the Opposition stalwarts could tolerate the arrogance and the authoritarian style of PM Indira Gandhi. In the era she straddled, she was the last word in politics and governance. The Socialist parties and BJP (then known as Jan Sangh) were in her cross hairs. When they failed to mobilise enough public opinion against her, it was left to the somewhat somnolent social samaritan Jayaprakash Narayan from Bihar to wake up and lead the anti-Indira movement, which eventually led to the imposition of the Emergency, the merger of many parties causing the birth of the Janata Party, and the subsequent defeat of the Congress and Indira Gandhi herself in 1977. Since the new formation was not based on any definite ideology, it collapsed like ninepins soon after their target of removing Indira Gandhi from power was achieved.

A similar political adventurism is underway, but the playfield this time is Bihar, not India. In the eyes of his neo-secular enemies, Modi has replaced Indira. All the non-NDA parties have coalesced and conjured up the slogan: Modi Harao, Secularism Bachao (defeat Modi and save secularism). Instead of the BJP, it is PM Modi who poses a threat to their political future. They have convinced themselves that by trouncing the BJP in Bihar, they would be able to corrode Modimagic and erode his authority and confidence. The heroes of the Emergency—the BJP and Socialists—are now at war in Bihar. It is incongruous that villains of the Emergency, too, can be found in both camps. According to the latest indications, over a dozen diminutive political parties, including the Left, are likely to forge an alliance and put up common candidates against the BJP and its allies. While both factions are targeting fringe leaders like former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi and Pappu Yadav to maximise the caste matrix, anti-Modi forces have decided to set their sights on the PM. They feel the BJP is almost in a similar position as the Congress was under Indira Gandhi—if the tricolour party was a zero without Indira, the BJP without Modi is a high-powered SUV without an engine.

Like Gujarat was Modi’s laboratory to test and hone his administrative and political skills, his opponents have now converted Bihar into a high-tech tab to invent an antidote to Modi’s invincibility. Both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav aren’t only engaged in social reengineering. They want to paint Modi as the villain of social harmony and a crusader championing crony capitalism. Lalu has gone to the extent of declaring he wouldn’t mind ingesting poison if it can defeat Modi in Bihar. According to the election strategy of the united Janata factions, they are going to beat the war drums, damning the opportunistic alliances made by the BJP in Kashmir and with Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar. Additionally, the battle for the state is turning out to be a doppelgänger of the Delhi scenario. The Delhi Assembly contest was Kejriwal vs Modi, since no other BJP leader, including the parachute paragon Kiran Bedi, could come within miles of Kejriwal’s magnetism. In Patna too, it is going to be Modi vs Nitish Kumar. Taking advantage of the absence of any powerful local BJP leader, the anti-Modi phalanx deliberately chose Nitish as their gladiator to take on the BJP behemoth. Nitish may not have, of late, a credible track record of good governance like Modi, but he is considered to be the most powerful leader in Bihar for the moment. Moreover, all the parties backing him represent over 55 per cent of the total votes. In 2010, the BJP-JD(U) combine fought the Assembly elections together and won 206 seats out of a total of 243 and polled over 39 per cent of the votes. Now the JD(U), which had secured 22.58 per cent votes then, has decided to fight the BJP in cahoots with the Congress, the Left and RJD. Their total vote share was around 55 per cent in 2010. Even in the May 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the combined vote percentage of the anti-BJP parties was over 47 as against around 37 per cent garnered by the NDA. Bihar is not going to be a cakewalk for the BJP, since it has rarely fought an Assembly election without a powerful regional ally in the past 30 years. Modi could break caste and class barriers with his sheer appeal and charisma in the Lok Sabha polls. The voters of Bihar felt they had no alternative other than him to be the best man to rule from Delhi. With the BJP performing at below-expectation levels at the Centre, Modi’s detractors are projecting Nitish as the local alternative who can govern Bihar better than any state BJP leader who functions through remote control from Delhi.

The death of ideologies in Bihar has revived the unfinished battle for supremacy between the national icon Modi and the regional warrior Nitish Kumar. The outcome of the war in Pataliputra will lay the future contours of the road to Indraprastha.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Faced with Agresive Opposition .... Power & Politics / The Sunday Standard/ May 24, 2015

Faced with Aggressive Opposition, Faster Execution of Ideas to be Modi's Real Test in Year Two

The golden principle of a vibrant democracy is that the Opposition should have its say and the government must have a way. During the first year of the Modi government, this rule has been violated with a vengeance. Narendra Modi sped into 7 Race Course, powered by a massive mandate from the people of India. His mission, model and mantra were fully endorsed by the voters who gave him 282 Lok Sabha seats. So, it isn’t unfair or unreasonable on his part to demand a full say in the governance of the nation. But has he been able to? The corrosive confrontations between the PM and the Opposition make it apparent that Modi has been denied his right to govern according to the manifesto on which he rode to power, obliterating his opponents. His admirers claim that in every state, a frustrated opposition led by the Congress obstructs the NDA government. Modi has ensured relatively corruption-free governance. He has taken India’s global acceptability on a vertical trajectory. The nation is much more stable—politically and economically—than during the vulnerable and venal decades that had excoriated the national morale.

The entire Opposition has become politically schizophrenic—on one hand stalling important legislation in both Houses of Parliament and on the other, moaning about the denial of their right to be heard. The truth, however, lies in between. It is quite evident that 365 days of Modi Raj not only redefined the style of governance but also the role of the Opposition in a single party rule after almost 25 years.

It is true that the NDA government in its attempt to deliver more than it had promised rushed through various decisions without taking the collective opposition into confidence. Some ministers also acted like provocatively posturing Chanticleers in Parliament, which the Opposition perceived as demonstrating the arrogance of power. For example, the latter wanted legislation on land and general sales tax to be reviewed by a parliamentary panel, but the government was determined to ram through both the Bills in a hurry. On the whole, it managed to do much business despite a determined Opposition ready to thwart it at every stage.

The government decided to celebrate its first anniversary with unprecedented savoir faire by fielding its glossiest faces and using every medium available to raise the octaves of its achievement anthem. Never before has since Independence any administration spent so much of energy and time in propagating its performance like Team Modi did in less than a week. For the Prime Minister, it was a time for showcasing his inimitable identity and unique stamp on democracy and governance. But for the Opposition, it has been an uphill task to stop his implacable juggernaut from advancing on its agenda. This is the first time since the indomitable and imperious Indira Gandhi governed the country that the entire Opposition has realised that the incumbent Prime Minister poses a real political danger not just to individuals but also to their ideologies. If in the 1970s and 80s, anti-Indiraism united parties from the extreme Left to extreme Right, Moditva has forced all non-BJP parties to forget or sink their differences and fight Modiology. It is precisely this fear, which led to all the factions of the Janata Parivar to dine and shine together to plan a merger. It is for the first time that even politically genetic enemies like the Left and Mamata Banerjee were forced to forge a tactical alliance in Parliament to prevent the NDA government from completing its legislative business. It’s Modi, with his speed and substance, who the Opposition is really afraid of. Even the Congress compromised on its various stands on major policy issues just to keep the Opposition glued together. For example, the top leadership of the party favoured supporting the GST Bill. The younger generation, however, prevailed upon the old warhorses to take an aggressive stance against Modi and in turn protect opposition unity. Modi’s one year in office has also laid the ground for a major realignment of politics, which may eventually lead to the weakening of multi-party electoral conflicts and forming a broadly twin-ideology-led political formation. Naturally the right of Centre forces will be led by Modi and the opposite factions would rally around Rahul Gandhi, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik. In fact, nationwide opposition to the amended Land Bill cutting across political lines is an indicator that any controversial policy initiative by the government can lead to an ideological confrontation and force the NDA to do course corrections. Even the BJP’s master strategists and their moles couldn’t burke the Opposition’s new united avatar.

If Modi has risen in stature nationally and internationally through his mobility and agility, even the Opposition, which was desperately demoralised after the 2014 General Elections, made its presence felt and regained its lost voice. Samajwadi senapati Mulayam Singh, with just five Lok Sabha MPs, became a rallying figure for all anti-Modi forces. In addition, the Congress, which couldn’t win enough seats to even claim the office of the Leader of the Opposition, also sussed out many chinks in Modi’s armour. According to many Congress leaders, it was Modi’s rising hold and consolidation over national politics, which compelled Rahul to go for a metamorphic makeover in demeanour and delivery.

The second anniversary of the Modi government, however, would be much more interesting. By then, Modi would have faced the crucial Bihar Assembly elections and the economy would either have recovered from its current not-so-good feel situation or sunk further into ‘bure din’. Many of his major initiatives like pension schemes, Jan Dhan Yojna, Swachh Bharat and infrastructure development would come under greater scrutiny by analysts. Additionally, Year Two will be tougher for Modi to showcase any fresh innovations since the implementation of the existing ones hasn’t yet shifted from first gear. If a united Opposition is able to defeat the BJP in Bihar, it would also raise questions about the invincibility of the party and further encourage the fence-sitters to jump to where the grass seems greener. For the next 365 days, the Opposition is going to adopt the strategy to stick the ‘pro-rich government’ label on the ruling party. Modi’s detractors will continue to charge him with promoting crony capitalism in the country. The BJP cadres expect the PM to redefine the meaning of economic growth. He and his team have spoken a lot about ensuring ease in doing business in India. From now on, perhaps, Modi will talk about how to create more demand and put more money in the hands of the poor and middle class so that the manufacturing sector can bounce back from its moribund melancholy. Rather than talking about lowering lending interest rates for the corporates, Modi’s second year will be tested on how much more will he be able to do for the poor as well as his core constituents.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com;  Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

It's Time for Modi ....... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/May 03, 2015

It's Time for Modi to Ensure that Minimum Government is More Visible in Maximum Action

Politics is more about perception than performance. As Narendra Modi completes his first year in office this month, the scrutiny of his performance by both critics and admirers has breached the thermal limit. Since he conquered the harried heart of the scam-stung voter, expectations were frighteningly vertiginous. In May 2014, he set the tone and tenor of public discourse. He converted ‘development’ from being just a slogan into a manifold mission. As an oratorical oracle, Modi was able to convince all that he was the monolithic messiah who would rid India of its miseries. The Modi Model of politics and governance got unprecedented national approval. During the past 11 months, he gave India many new ideas and suggested innovations like Swachh Bharat, Make in India and Digital India.

In May 2015, however, the tide of national narrative seems to be turning. Despite Modi’s stellar achievements in foreign policy, ensuring economic stability, movement towards devolution of financial powers to the states, emphasis on infrastructure development and taming corruption, the public focus has shifted to the agrarian crisis, Ghar Wapsi and insensitive remarks made by leaders on women issues. The sudden shift from performance to perception about the nature, composition and intent of the BJP-led government is worrisome. It symbolises the chinks in the marketing strategy and inability of NDA spinmeisters to sustain the enormous goodwill towards Modi’s résumé as Gujarat’s CM.

In the fog of their fallacies, the fact that inflation has fallen significantly, the trade deficit is under control and many new initiatives have been taken in the infrastructure sector is being ignored. India’s swift intervention in restoring normalcy in earthquake-traumatised Nepal has been lauded worldwide. For the first time in the country, electricity generation in 2014-15 crossed one trillion units, showing a growth rate of 8.4 per cent over the previous year—the highest in the last two decades. The government successfully auctioned spectrum and coal mines without any questions being raised over the mode and manner of selling natural resources.

Yet, it is not Modi’s performance that is grabbing the headlines. Newspapers, opinion-makers and even diplomats are now discussing whether a rejuvenated Rahul Gandhi would be able to put the brakes on the Modi juggernaut. Undoubtedly, the BJP has become the world’s largest political outfit with the enrolment drive under party president Amit Shah taking the membership to 10 crore. Yet its sartorially obsessed spokespersons are losing out to their counterparts in other parties over ignorance on debating issues. They have made negativism their prime weapon. Even during parliamentary debates, Union ministers and senior leaders go on the defensive when facing consistent cannonade from a united opposition.

Their charges give the impression that the BJP is keen to propitiate only those who control industry and diplomacy. For a change, even Rahul found some support in the social media and seized prime time space when he dubbed the NDA as a suited and booted government. On land acquisition, Rahul’s barbs are capturing more eyeballs than the entire Team Modi. While he and other Opposition leaders wax eloquent on farmers and women’s woes, most BJP leaders are defending the Land Bill, which hardly helps the ruling party fight the battle of perception. Even though over a dozen ministers are being pummelled metaphorically on India’s streets and villages on the bill, it hasn’t prevented the ruling clique to attempt any course correction and bring the debate back to the core issue of real performance. With most of the upper echelons of government being inaccessible, the NDA government is most conspicuous by its invisibility.

Perhaps Team Modi has lost the plot. For it, ratcheting up the reform raga instead of governance appears to be the only benchmark to measure the popularity and success of the government. Its victories in getting important legislations like the Insurance Bill and FDI in defence are positive signs. Industry would be happy to see the GST Bill passed in Parliament. But all these actions have little to do with helping poor and middle class India, which wants employment, jobs, affordable housing and efficient public transport. Nothing seems to have moved on these fronts. The dismal fourth quarter results of most Indian companies indicate that the economy is ailing. For the first time in a decade, supply has stagnated with no sign of demand picking up in any sector. Exports are showing a massive fall, which may overturn the gains India had enjoyed due to the massive decline in crude prices. 

Yet, Union ministers and CMs are spending more time with business leaders from India and abroad, to invite more investment. Tycoons enjoy and broadcast these tête-à-têtes but are yet to commit to any handsome investments. They only want tax concessions and unhindered access to the Indian market. The Modi government has done much more than the UPA in terms of policy corrections to make India one of the most investor-friendly markets in the world. Yet its magnanimity hasn’t yielded many dividends so far.

In the process, its popularity in middle and rural India has significantly suffered. Poll results in the recent municipal elections in West Bengal have punctured the hype created by a few rootless BJP leaders about the party’s acceptability in the eastern state. Modi’s detractors are now awaiting the outcome of the Assembly polls in Bihar followed by West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. He would be under pressure to play to the gallery by pushing administrative decisions, which would be lauded by the rich.

But Modi has to remember his vow: not to be held hostage to the dissolute Delhi culture, which promotes elitist exclusivity. On his first anniversary as PM, Modi has to insulate himself from enemies more from within than without. He must note that it is he, and not any of his trusted ministers, who is under attack for acts of omissions by the government. His loyalists may be at their verbal best in defending him but some are the worst performers in their own ministries. Modi’s sustainability as a leader with wisdom and vision lies in going back to the basics and the masses. He will do well to engage in reverse economic engineering by de-prioritising the service sector. He has to revive small and medium scale manufacturing and rescue agriculture from imminent death. Delhi, Mumbai and New York can wait. Bharat wouldn’t like Modi to fail because it still sees in him a decisive leader. The time has come for him to ensure that minimum government is more visible in maximum action and delivery.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla