The Sattvic effect 7 RCR has.... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard / August 23, 2015

The Sattvic Effect 7 RCR Has on Its Occupants When it Comes to Pak Must be Dispelled

Location, location, location. On the face of it, the very idea sounds ridiculous when it concerns PMs. But in a country where vastu, astrology and mythology determine the lifestyles and businesses of the majority, the numerology of 7 Race Course Road (RCR), the PM’s official residence, assumes an almost astral significance. Indo-Pak dialogue watchers now wonder if there is something arcane in the air of Race Course, which affects the thinking of its occupant regarding dialogue with Pakistan.

Spread over more than 12 acres of impeccably landscaped greenery, the RCR complex has become famous for exercising a sattvic effect on the personality of the premier. It becomes more pronounced while dealing with a hostile and untrustworthy neighbour like Pakistan. Today, India’s nationalist PM Narendra Modi, who rode to power by promising to teach terror-sponsor Pakistan an unforgettable lesson, is being perceived as a docile dove. During his campaign in 2014, he was spewing fire and brimstone. But soon after winning the Lok Sabha elections, he became the first PM to invite his Pakistani counterpart to his swearing-in ceremony. His tactical charm offensive with Pakistan didn’t end there. He walked the few extra miles by courting Nawaz Sharif at various international forums. But ever since he moved into 7 RCR, Modi hasn’t uttered a single hostile word against Pakistan or warned it of reprisal despite a record number of cross-border incursions. The Congress even attacked him for expressing sympathy for the Bangkok blast victims, while keeping schtum on the daily killings of Indian jawans and civilians along the LoC. Those who know the PM will not believe for a moment that he has abandoned his nationalistic moorings. So, is his government’s decision to engage—instead of isolating Pakistan as a terror-bitten pariah—influenced by some planetary effects on RCR?

Modi, however, is not the first Indian PM who has changed the approach of dealing with our treacherous 1947 offshoot. Some Indian soothsayers and vastu experts joke that the softness of Indian PMs for Pakistan started soon after Race Course became the PM’s official residence. Rajiv Gandhi was the first one to move into RCR. Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first premier, who lived in a sprawling bungalow on Teen Murti Road, may have lost the 1962 war, but he had followed a militarily aggressive policy against China and also wrested Goa from the Portuguese. Lal Bahadur Shastri, whose address was 10 Janpath, treated Pakistan as India’s biggest enemy and routed its army and almost captured Lahore in 1965. During Indira Gandhi’s 15-year stay at 1 Safdarjung Road, her policy was to treat Pakistan as a tremendous threat. Since it was a close US ally, she took a confrontationist attitude towards America too. Both Indira and Shastri did not hesitate to engage Pakistan in full-fledged wars.

But once Rajiv moved into RCR, the government’s attitude towards Pakistan changed. He went out of his way to wave the olive branch. He got along famously with Pakistan PM Benazir Bhutto, who became a frequent flyer to New Delhi. During the five years of his rule, Pakistan almost wrangled for itself the status of a Most Favoured Nation. The emotional distance between Lahore and Delhi was sort of bridged with a plethora of highfalutin cultural galas and lavish dinner parties in both cities. Rajiv didn’t know that his government’s excessive obsession with bettering relations with Pakistan had provided the ISI a golden opportunity to infiltrate J&K. By the time he was overthrown by voters, Pakistan had already created a powerful base in the Valley to destabilise India. Mars, the planet of aggression, seems to have moved away from the firmament over 7 RCR. The natural aggressive instinct of a Prime Minister to counter a hostile neighbour has been pacified. P V Narasimha Rao, after moving into 7 RCR, became a strong proponent of dialogue with Pakistan. His old friend Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who lived on Safdarjung Road, was always pushing for a confrontation with a terror-toxic Pakistan. It was Rao, who, in fact, consolidated Track II diplomacy to lay the ground rules for cross-border chitchat. But the planets changed when Vajpayee shifted his numerological pin code to RCR in 1998. And he fell in love with idea of a friendly Pakistan. He hopped onto a bus to Lahore in February 1999, but got Kargil in return gift. Later Vajpayee invited Gen. Pervez Musharraf to a summit in Agra. But the stars changed during his second innings, and the pacific atmosphere of Race Course prompted him to speak in peacenik patois. Did Vajpayee and his team fall under some Pak sorcerer’s spell and forget their earlier Pakistan doctrine? His successor Manmohan Singh (MaMo) was a dove, which simply dove into the peace pool at RCR. He was one of the most vocal and active votaries of Indo-Pak dialogue. So obsessed was he with striking a detente deal that at one stage, he was even toying with the idea of converting the LoC into an international border.

If MaMo was a dove, NaMo was supposed to be a hawk. Have the enchanted environs of RCR changed the way every Indian PM perceives Pakistan? Has the diplomatic necromancy of RCR acquired control over PM’s mind, since the place functions more like the PM’s office than his residence? South Block, which is still called the PMO, has become just an outhouse where a couple of bureaucrats hold random meetings and keep records. It also houses the external affairs ministry, which used to give important inputs to the PM’s diplomatic formulations. For the past 25 years, none of our PMs have spent more than a few hours a week at South Block. Rao even got a special lift installed, but one he never used. After Modi moved into 7 RCR and access became severely limited, he now gets to hear only the views of those who enjoy unrestricted entry. 7 RCR’s imperial aloofness from rest of the establishment has made it India’s most powerful parcel of premium political real estate. Modi has spent barely 15 months living there. Perhaps, the stars may change the prevailing Pak-bewitched mood and turbo-boost Modi’s mission and commitment to causes that define him as a no-nonsense nationalist. Then the contrarian and conflicting diplomatic gamma rays emanating from within the boundaries of 7 RCR may finally be dispelled by the influence of mangal in the PM’s house.


prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow  me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Manmohan is History....... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/April 06, 2014

Manmohan is History, but Last Leg of Advani's Run Begins May 16

It’s a spellbinding tale of two titans riding into the sunset. One has a record for being the third longest-serving PM. The other has an unfulfilled dream of making it to 7 RCR even after two elections. PM Manmohan Singh and L K Advani, the titular chairman of the inactive NDA, have become pariahs in their homes. Even the claqueurs they promoted and protected during their shining days treat them with disdain. In 2009, both were star campaigners for their parties. Both were declared their party’s PM candidates in advance. Congress never missed an opportunity to market Manmohan as India’s consensus builder and global leader. Advani was hailed as strong and decisive regnant—the real inheritor of Sardar Patel’s legacy. Every piece of publicity material of both parties carried their pictures proclaiming their seigniory.

Come 2014, and their own parties do not want them. As Bob Dylan sang, “you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”, the coup de théâtre is that both LKA and MMS—hailed as architects of a resurgent BJP and a prosperous India respectively—are now perceived as destroyers of the edifices they raised. The names of neither leader appear on the list of their party’s key campaigners, submitted to the EC, even as a mere formality. There is no demand for either of them to address rallies. If Narendra Modi, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have spoken at over 200 meetings each, Advani and Manmohan aren’t expected to address more than 20 each.

The reasons for the ignominy of each leader are different. Advani has been in politics for over six decades. He led a movement, which brought his party to power in 1996 under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. He groomed the current leadership of the BJP by appointing them CMs and giving them national responsibilities, even at the risk of ignoring the claims of senior satraps. The BJP’s Iron Man of Yesterday holds the world record of undertaking the longest-ever yatra for the purpose of uniting his party and carrying the Hindutva message through the country. Advani, along with Vajpayee, made BJP what it is today. Advani was, in fact, its soul and body; Vajpayee its moderate face. But the party’s poor performance in 2009 and Vajpayee’s infirmities forcing him to opt out of tasks of politics led Advani’s position to become vulnerable. The first sign of his plummeting acceptability was visible during the recent Assembly polls in which most BJP chief ministers were unwilling to invite him to campaign. Moreover, portraits of both Advani and Vajpayee, which used to hold permanent pride of place in the party’s publicity material started to vanish from electoral horizons of saffron states. Now, one can hardly find Advani’s picture on a poster or a hoarding put up for a BJP candidate.

Modi’s supporters have ensured that his bête noire doesn’t share any platform with Gujarat’s lord of the ascendant in any part of the country. So far, the old warhorse hasn’t been invited onstage to any rally in which Modi is main speaker. In a cruel irony, Advani—BJP’s leader, ideologue and philosopher—has been reduced to being just another name in the list of over a dozen members of the parliamentary board. The sanguine suzerain who carried BJP out of political untouchability and brought over 20 parties to its fold is today not even consulted or informed about alliances with other parties, which still respect him more than any leader in BJP. His inability to anticipate and understand the winds of change within his own party led to erosion of his supremacy. Never did he expect that his followers would stab him in the back one day.

A leader who once had the veto over the selection of even a member of a state Assembly has been denied the right to choose his seat. Advani, however, still commands a following among the old guard and a sizeable section of middle-level cadres who see in him a leader to admire—one with frugal habits and simple living. Prominent leaders like Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj and over a dozen state party paladins still regard him as the symbol of BJP’s ideology. It is thanks to them that he has survived in the party and is still seen unleashing his oratory at rallies. It was the small but formidable support Advani commands within the rank and file that forced Modi to accompany him when he went to file his nomination from Gandhinagar. To the dismay of detractors, Advani continues to be an institution and not just an individual.

On another front, it is Sonia Gandhi and Congress which made MMS what he is today. The PM has never been seen as a person with political mettle to lead his party. Sonia appointed him PM because he was apolitical and wouldn’t pose any challenge to the Gandhi Parivar. During the UPA’s 2004-09 reign, he delivered on governance not because of his administrative prowess but primarily due to the effect of the global economic upsurge. MMS provided multinationals an easy market for making fast money and gave them concessions to create services and invest in markets instead of manufacturing. As the winter of global recession set in 2009, India’s vulnerability was exposed; the national growth rate plunged to a decade’s record low of less than 5 per cent. His introverted paralysis led to his failure in leading the government. Yet, his pickthank megaphones never missed an opportunity to blame the Gandhis and dual centres of power for the massive failures and scams hobbling the UPA. For the past few months, many of his ministers have been defying him. They found excuses for not inviting him to any of their ministries’ functions. Now portraits of him—so prominent in 2009 posters of the Congress—have vanished. If Advani still holds a place in his party, the Congress is eagerly waiting for MMS to make a graceful exit. The party had been dropping myriad signals, which forced the PM to announce his retirement way before the elections. While it is certain that MMS will be history after the polls, the writing of the last chapter of Advani’s 60-year-old political Yatra will begin only after May 16.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

In Race to 7 RCR..... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ March 02, 2014

In Race to 7 RCR, Maximum Leaders Depend on Minimum Fuglemen to Succeed 

 

The trend of corporate mergers, acquisitions and strategic alliances are experiencing a sunset moment. Instead, the season for political mergers and acquisitions has opened. Such opportunistic deals are occuping primetime news hours more than corporate alliances of the past. With market leaders like BJP and Congress exhibiting zetetic zeal in acquiring new caste and community markets, the price of picayune political outfits have hit the roof. The market capitalisation of sinking political organisations has exceeded their net worth, thanks to massive demand from national parties. Prominent brand masters like Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi are desperately seeking alliances to either retain their market share or expand it by gobbling up small players. Neither national party holds more than 40 per cent of the electorate market. In spite of pan-India visibility, neither has a significant presence in states that send over 250 MPs to Lok Sabha. Even some regional parties are scouting for trophies as window displays to attract fence-sitters. As the countdown to battle 2014 begins, it has dawned on all that battles of the ballot cannot be won on banal ideological and individual-driven charters. The new mantra to win the Lok Sabha polls seems to be ‘Forget Development, Welcome the Caste and Community Coalition’.

After acting pricey, both Rahul and Modi have realised that any dream of capturing 7 RCR will remain a mirage unless regional satraps and caste/community leaders join them in selling their brands. Surprisingly, BJP initiated the first move. It was under the illusion that Modi will move the market like Dhoni, Bachchan, Salman or Priyanka do for brands they promote. After addressing 70-odd rallies from Kerala to Tripura, Modi and his sponsors seem to have realised that he alone is not enough to convert visible popularity into votes. BJP needed local leaders and vote mobilisers to go that extra mile to the booth. After having failed to win over any of the big leaders such as Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik, Mayawati, Jayalalithaa and Chandrababu Naidu, BJP decided wooing failed caste leaders is the only option to erase impression that the party isn’t able to garner new allies. The total worth of BJP’s new acquisitions and mergers is unlikely to create a winning tally. For the past four months, it has hawked Modi as the panacea for all ills that plague Indian politics and economics. Through expensive tech campaigns, Modi was projected as the leader who would pull India out of a mess. The feedback from huge rallies and small groups of targeted audiences had given Modi and sponsors the impression that BJP and its PM candidate don’t need alliances. Rajnath Singh told me in an interview that NDA needs no allies to form a government because Modi’s leadership was enough. The next day, however, he and his messengers were striking deals with all and sundry. Nitin Gadkari wooed Dalit leader Ramdas Athawale to join the NDA bandwagon. For the sake of a fading Dalit satrap, the party denied Rajya Sabha re-nominations to dedicated leaders. The best joke of all was the induction of Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar, which the BJP claims to be its new bastion. The two leaders collectively do not count for more than 4 per cent of the total vote. In Tamil Nadu, BJP has been panting to get Vanniar caste-dominated PMK to join NDA, ignoring pending criminal cases. It brought back former Karnataka chief minister B S Yeddyurappa to regain Lingayat votes. The clear fiat to BJP’s state leaders is to spot fringe parties to be shanghaied to NDA.

Both national parties have used corporate and NGO interlocutors to bring SP, TMC, AIADMK, BJD and TDP closer, but none of the regional outfits have bothered to return calls. Instead, Mulayam Singh Yadav took the lead in corralling most of the non-national parties on one platform to forge a pre-poll alliance. None of them are in competition in any state. It is only the Left, which stands to gain if such an alliance is midwifed because it would then get seats in states where it lacks a chance. Since forward and dominant castes in the big states show no interest in either national party, BJP is randomly picking up leaders known not for their achievements but for their caste or symbolic value. The party readmitted backward class leader Kalyan Singh not for his track record but considering his caste pull. It is an irony that the party which began its campaign as one that stood for decisive leadership and good governance is now chasing tainted and failed leaders.

Meanwhile, Congress and its supreme leaders don’t mind giving tickets to those whose reputations are sullied by judicial action and investigation. They represent only caste and community and are not responsible for transparent governance. BJP to prove its USP, has embraced superannuated controversial civil, police and army officers. If those who do not honour democracy and transparency become prominent instruments of a party’s growing acceptability, it reflects badly on its popular commitment. In the past few months, over half-a-dozen retired babus have joined the party. All the state mongers are beneficiaries of UPA’s liberal munificence and even got plum postings. Unlike AAP, which is recruiting and co-opting those who have rebelled against the system, BJP and Congress prefer the brotherhood of compromisers and opportunists. While the former nets fair weather birds, the latter has so far failed to acquire new parties or even discredited caste and community leaders. The trend is clear. The maximum leaders now depend on minimum fuglemen to succeed.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla