For Modiplomacy to Succeed, PM Should Either Include Pak Army in Talks or Neutralise It
Trust without verification invariably proves fatal. Prime Minister
Narendra Modi must be ruing the day he was persuaded to trust Pakistan’s
political establishment led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. To give
innovative diplomacy a chance, Modi forgot the historical truth about
the Indo-Pak peace dialogue. It keeps alternating between farce and
tragedy in the space between one terror attack and another. In a
blood-stained New Year message, Pak-supported terrorists massacred the
budding friendship between the two leaders by attacking the airforce
base station in Pathankot. Coming barely a week after Modi’s bold
landing in Lahore for Sharif’s birthday celebrations, the fidayeen
attacks reinforced the harsh reality that the Pakistani political runway
is obstructed by India-baiters whose only objective is to let its
mammoth neighbour bleed. These saboteurs project the four meetings
between Modi and Sharif in the past 20 months as a mere exchange of
social pleasantries. They ignore the intent and content of External
Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s discussions with Sharif during her
Pakistan visit in December 2015. The movers and shakers of Pakistan’s
parallel establishment have treated the decisions taken at a meeting
between the National Security Advisers (NSAs) of the two countries in
Bangkok as needless notebooks meant for waste paper basket. Above all,
the images of Sharif and Modi holding hands in Lahore or whispering in
each other’s ears in Paris are acts of betrayal of their idea of
fundamentalist Islam. They have returned every handshake with hand
grenades and gunfire, killing Indian security personnel and civilians.
For the blood-thirsty jihadists, the survival of a fundamentalist
Pakistan depends on promoting terror and not adopting good economics.
Terror is their most lucrative business. It gets them weapons and women,
money and mosques, and the authority to dictate terms to a
democratically elected government. Cocking a snook at the growing
bonhomie between the two PMs, the terrorists have slain over 50 Indian
defence personnel in the past year.
It would be facetious to
expect any element of surprise over the weekend’s terror attacks. For
Modi, such an ugly response to his gestures couldn’t have come at a
worse time. He has already defied his core constituency, which wants war
and not words with Pakistan. He has sent clear signals to his ministers
and diplomats that they should walk the extra mile to give dialogue a
chance; like Atal Bihari Vajpayee had done even after being betrayed
umpteen times. From all indications, it is clear that both domestic and
external interlocutors had assured Modi that Sharif was capable of
ensuring the successful continuation of a comprehensive Indo-Pak
dialogue. Successive Indian Prime Ministers have been given similar
assurances by the powerful US, which treats Pakistan as its crony colony
and its ambivalent army as ally against any selective terrorism aimed
at America. No Pakistani leader, however, could deliver on any of the
promises made to India. In 2004, the duplicitous Pervez Musharraf gave a
written assurance to Vajpayee that terrorists wouldn’t be allowed to
use any part of the Pakistan-controlled territory to operate against
India. It was a mockery since more attacks, including the devastating
Mumbai strike, continued to happen. According to diplomatic sources,
Pakistan NSA Sartaj Aziz, a confidant of Pak Army chief General Raheel
Sharif, gave his word to the Indian NSA Ajit Doval in Bangkok that the
Army will tame all home-based terrorists and cripple their capacity to
damage India. The assurance was repeated during Swaraj’s Islamabad
visit. It was in this atmosphere of accord that Modi decided to land in
Lahore and strengthen Sharif’s capability to rally the Pak Army behind
him.
Peril in Pathankot has not only diminished Modi’s resolve to
dismantle the tangled skein of Indo-Pak relations, but has also proved
again that Sharif is not the appropriate person as he doesn’t enjoy full
authority and command over the armed forces. He doesn’t have a
comfortable political majority in Parliament. He is perceived by the
people as a symbol of the aristocracy, the elite and big business
interests. Since he comes from Punjab, which is emotionally closer to
India than the rest of Pakistan, Sharif doesn’t inspire much support in
other regions, except among the rich and mighty in Lahore. During his
earlier stint in power, he was effortlessly ousted by a military coup
because he and his party were considered ineffective and slaves to the
US. During the past four years, he hasn’t been able to contain the
ever-growing influence of fundamentalist forces in Pakistan. The number
of terror attacks has risen substantially during his tenure because he
doesn’t have the army’s full support. Those opposed to dialogue argue
that Sharif, who has failed to control jihadis in his own country,
cannot be trusted to dismantle the terror establishment whose aim is to
damage India.
For Modi the dove, however, hardly any escape routes
are left to fly away to peaceful skies. He has too much at stake and
can’t afford the rhythm of dialogue he has initiated to break at this
stage. Peaceniks and ill-liberals will clamour that any interruption in
talks will only strengthen the radicals. Modi will also be under
pressure to disclose the content and contours of the dialogue, which he
and his team have been holding with Pak leaders since the past few
months. Since Modi practices unconventional politics, he will have to
connect with the real power holders in Pakistan to take his mission
forward. So far, all previous Indian leaders have stuck to conformist
mediation by involving just diplomats and civil servants in engaging
Pakistan. Perhaps, the time has come for the PM to co-opt Pakistan’s
defence establishment, too, in open speak. India cannot ignore the
reality that it is the Pakistan army, which dictates decisions in that
country. If Modiplomacy has to succeed, Modi should either include the
Pak Army in the formal dialogue process or neutralise it if it refuses
to fall in line. After all, it is the Indian Army, which has borne the
brunt of Pak-sponsored terror, along with innocent citizens. The
presence of uniformed officers of both countries, sitting along with
political leaders from both sides, will provide more than a photo-op and
yield better results. So far, only meetings between the two unequals,
Modi and Sharif, have taken place. While Modi represents the mandate of
the Indian people and the might of the government, Sharif is merely the
face, and not the force, of the government in Pakistan. Modi must verify
Sharif’s credibility and clarity before reposing trust in him again.
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla
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