Given their political DNA, to segue RaGa and NaMo's..... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/January 26, 2014

Given Their Political DNA, to Segue RaGa and NaMo's 'I' into 'We' Will be a Tall Order

The slogan is impressive in its modesty. It seeks votes by invoking the team spirit. This week, all newspapers carried a Congress advertisement with the slogan, “Main Nahi, Hum (Not Me, but We)” with a picture of Rahul Gandhi as the fugleman in front of a group of young voters from all communities. It was a straight lift from a NaMo Chintan Shivir of 2011. Perhaps the ad agency, which planned RaGa’s high-voltage promotional blitz, failed to do its homework. But the sheer similarity between the thinking of the two prime ministerial aspirants underlined their compulsion to project themselves as the sole team leaders. Both have been perceived as loners who inhabit vertiginous eyries perched high above anyone who garners votes and mobilises public opinion. Both extol the virtues of ‘We’ but practice the ‘I’ mantra. Of late, NaMo has been a mixed mass metaphor, grandiloquent in his humility, choosing to extol his modest background and OBC caste status than his impressive track record as Gujarat chief minister. Yet, hardly anyone knows the names of Team Modi members. His team begins with NaMo and ends with NaMo. RaGa is no different. He has confined himself to a fortress-like residence populated by unknown and inexperienced techies from affluent families, whose association with the reality of politics is anything but accidental. In Ahmedabad too, BJP officebearers and even ministers are rarely allowed entry to Modi’s well-guarded house.

It’s the ‘I’ in these individuals which dominates political discourse, narrative and choice of compadres. Both aspire to become the Prime Minister of a billion-strong India but ignore those who could facilitate their victory better. All promotional material are dominated by their pictures, sans those who have also achieved success and a reputation through performance. The BJP owes its over half-a-dozen governments to the sterling reputation of charismatic chief ministers and state party chiefs. It would have been nowhere in the reckoning if leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje Scindia, Raman Singh, Manohar Parikkar, Sushil Kumar Modi, Harsh Vardhan, Rajnath Singh et al had not displayed their organisational and administrative acumen. Yet, none of them find a place of prominence in Modi’s election strategy, which has been left to marketing agencies and a few others. If Modi is today the country’s most favoured PM candidate, it has much to do with the good governance provided by other BJP chief ministers. Their popularity drives the all-circumjacent popular embrace of Modi. Except calling them for customary meetings of party forums, none of the chief ministers are involved in planning Battle 2014. Even at the recently held National Executive Council Meeting in Delhi, none of them were asked to move any resolution. CMs like Chouhan and Parrikar have performed much better than Modi in many areas. If Modi means Hum (We) as his mantra, all election material would have carried a combined picture of the CMs. Imagine the impact it would have on voters, if Modi, in the company of a phalanx of saffron heroes, sought the vote in the name of all BJP CMs and showed India that he could lead a team of movers and shakers with proven track records. The BJP ranks have many highly successful former ministers like Arun Shourie and Yashwant Sinha, but both are ignored by the party. The party’s decision-making bodies are filled with either geriatrics or honchos who have never won an election, let alone lead a state unit to victory. The seniority or financial clout of an individual in the BJP gets priority over merit and the ability to win an election. They are the ones who claim to be the invisible part of Team ‘Hum’.

The situation in the Congress is worse. It has the largest attroupement of stellar CMs and Cabinet ministers, but they are not portrayed as part of the ‘We’ team which Rahul swears by. Chief ministers like Oommen Chandy, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Siddaramaiah and Tarun Gogoi are known for their responsive governance and better delivery mechanisms on many parameters than their BJP counterparts. They also know how to win an election and carry their teams along. Chandy, for example, leads a precarious coalition government in Kerala, which could collapse if just two MLAs choose to defect. He has been able to keep UDF allies and warring Congress factions together. However, when it came to giving the CMs due credit at the recently held AICC session in New Delhi, the Congress party focused only on Rahul. Most of the present Congress CMs have got rave reviews about their performance by various government and non-government agencies like the Planning Commission and Reserve Bank of India. While the BJP and other parties don’t lose an opportunity to assail the Congress, the ruling party has never exploited the success of its state governments. The Congress rarely projects its CMs as the ones who have fulfilled most of the party promises in the state elections. Most of them are only used for fundraising and not for mobilisation of voters and workers. They are summoned to New Delhi as vassals to be given orders or to be gibbeted for the party’s bad performance in their states. But they are never patted on the back for keeping the party’s pennant flying in their states. Rahul appears to be in a hurry to change the Congress culture of sycophancy. But he is still sticking to the age-old Congress system of stateless and rootless leaders deciding the fate of popular state leaders. He has taken charge but hasn’t yet been able to jettison those who have lost their relevance and utility in the party. As the stopwatch for the Lok Sabha elections unwinds in an inexorable cycle of political karma, both NaMo and RaGa suffer from an existential dilemma. How to segue ‘I’ into ‘We’? Keeping in view their political DNA, it’s a tall order. As Othello said, “to beguile many, but be beguiled by one”, but both politicians are beguiled only by the idea of themselves.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

US must realise that India can be a Friend ..... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/January 12, 2014

US Must Realise that India Can be a Friend, Only as an Equal and Not as a Follower

Agonised apologists for America are in angst over the angry objurgation against American arrogance over L’affaire Devyani Khobragade. Ever since the Indian government showed some spine by retaliating against the US government, America’s Indian megaphones are rising in fortissimo to counter the orchestra of domestic disgust. For them, money is more important than national pride. The class that adores the colour of the greenback over respect for the Tricolour are asking fustian questions like “Is Devyani more important than the Indo-US relationship?” In their lucre-driven bombilations, they have chosen to forget that Devyani, a Dalit diplomat, was representing her country and was not just some individual the Indian government had dispatched to the US. Forget amor patriae, an obstreperous campaign is on to undermine her reputation and underplay the colossal insult to the prestige of Indian state by a petty American official. As Devyani returned home in disguised disgrace, the government hit back by asking a US diplomat to be recalled. He was the one instrumental in getting Devyani’s maid Sangeeta Richard’s family ‘evacuated’ from their own country—India.

While Devyani was declared persona non grata, US authorities remained silent about the behaviour of her nanny and her family members who entered the US to avoid facing Indian courts. The inexplicably imperious US posturing on Devyani hides more than what it reveals. Otherwise both countries wouldn’t have adopted an eyeball-to-eyeball stance. It is perhaps for the first time that both India and the US have expelled diplomats in concert. Such an exceptional row comes at a stage when they were perceived as allies in global economic and strategic issues. For the past two decades, India has been bending backwards to mend its ways and means to suit American corporate and strategic interests. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is the only Head of State who has made the maximum number of trips during his two terms to the US than any of his peers. American diplomats in India were given exceptional waivers to open schools, clubs, import luxury goods and even employ Indians without following Indian laws. The American Embassy in New Delhi was shown the magnanimity of blocking the road behind it in the name of security, while the Indian Embassy in Washington was even denied two parking spots. American diplomats have been enjoying special facilities at various airports in India, unlike Indian diplomats in the US. American Embassy staff were given passes to enter official areas where even senior civil servants, ministers and chief ministers could not tread. The Indian Prime Minister and Union ministers have been liberal in granting visiting US junior diplomats an audience. But for our ministers, getting an appointment with even a Secretary in the US government, let alone President Obama, would be unthinkable. The UPA has been so eager to oblige America that it even risked a fall by getting the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement passed, facing charges of political misconduct.

If that wasn’t enough, the Indian government went out of its way to save American companies from sinking during the economic recession by placing huge orders on capital equipment. America has been treating India as a bespoke colony, expecting Indians to surrender their self-respect. Since India opened up its economy to become a global player, it has been granting American companies preference over multinationals from other countries. During the past 10 years, India has placed orders worth `50,000 crore with US corporations for defence equipment and aircraft. India is America’s largest but unreciprocated trade partner. It has invested over $60 billion in US treasury bonds, thereby becoming America’s 17th largest investor. Even on international issues, the UPA would invite the ire of its domestic constituencies by supporting US policy on Sri Lanka and Iran. Indian corporate Caesars have been liberal in funding American academia with millions of dollars, which they rarely do for Indian institutions. In America they perceive a natural ally who would fight against terror, dictatorships and communist expansionism for mutual benefit. Indians of American-origin contribute bounteously to parties during the US elections.

The Devyani episode has proved that America preaches democracy and peace but practices dictatorship and exclusivity. Anyone who questions their arbitrariness and arrogance would be treated as an enemy. Even after extracting maximum economic flesh from India, no American company or the US government has shown even a minor interest in protecting India’s dignity and security. In reality, they have been supporting the anti-India forces in our neighbourhood, closing their eyes against terror camps in Pakistan and imposing strict conditions on the immigration of Indian skilled labour to the US. They are tight-fisted while investing in India. According to official records, the cumulative FDI equity inflow into India was just $2 million until September 2013. About 20 per cent of it went to the services sector. Americans have refused to transfer technology and invest in immovable assets but are insisting on extremely liberal tax policies for their FIIs so that they could fatten their coffers by playing the markets.

Yet India has been magnanimous towards America. But the way they treated Devyani proves beyond any doubt that US policymakers are uncomfortable with India’s rise as an economic and military super power, which could challenge their supremacy one day. They have perhaps forgotten former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi who always showed them their place, whether it was over China or Pakistan. The US may have infiltrated the Indian establishment but it has wounded the heart of India. For Indians, protecting the prestige of the Tricolour is a matter of faith, which cannot be compromised by showering a bounty of dollars on a chosen few. The time has come for America to realise that India can be a friend, only as an equal and not as a follower.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

History will Record Singh as King .....Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/January 05, 2014

History Will Record Singh as King Who Couldn't Do Justice to Stature of Chair He Occupied

All’s well that ends well, goes the adage. But in PM Manmohan Singh’s case, it has lost its original meaning. He claimed history would judge him differently and mercifully. Instead, he found a place in contemporary chronicles of independent India as the first incumbent PM to announce his retirement, six months ahead of the end of his term. There is no last date in the calendar of a political leader. Manmohan is an exception. He is the second PM to complete two consecutive terms in office after Jawaharlal Nehru. His other record is holding only three press conferences during these terms. He is also the first PM to survive two terms without his party having a majority in Lok Sabha. When during his press interaction he claimed that surviving in office for 10 years in a coalition era was one of his achievements, he wasn’t far off the mark. But he skirted mentioning the cost he and the nation paid for the compromises struck to keep his allies on UPA’s ramshackle raft. The speech, however, made it evident that Manmohan is not one of those leaders who would give credit for his success to teammates and take blame for failures. He blamed every institution, individual and ideology for his government’s dismal record. His voluntary retirement as CEO of one billion-strong India is the tragic saga of the fall of a puissant prophet who promised a mountain but couldn’t deliver a mole. A darling of the middle class and an iconic messiah for India Inc in 2004, Singh is now seen as foe in 2014. If the tone and content of his media meet were any indication, the PM came across an angry old man. His personal attack on BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi reflected his personal hurt and frustration.

If Manmohan’s 75-minute encounter with journalists was meant to salvage his and his government’s sagging image, it failed to achieve the objective. The impression given was that the nation is left with a caretaker PM who wouldn’t be able to take any firm decision for the rest of his term. Even while recounting achievements, the PM was studiously selective with facts. For example, he claimed the UPA government was able to deliver a record GDP growth during the past nine years. As an economist, he knew what sort of statistics would paint a rosy picture. But he forgot that when he took over, the economy had grown by over 8 per cent during the last year of Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime. But when Manmohan would demit office, India’s economic growth would be less than 5 per cent. On every other sector, UPA’s performance is disastrous. The agriculture sector has plummeted to 4.80 per cent against 9 per cent during the last year of NDA government. Worse, manufacturing growth rate has fallen from 7.32 per cent to 1.50 per cent. Much more ridiculous was Manmohan’s justification for his government’s bad economic performance. He blamed global factors for influencing Indian economic indicators. The same PM had claimed that it was due to his government’s robust policies that India ducked global recession in 2008. If India was insulated in 2008, why did it fail in 2013? The PM and his foreign-educated economic advisers couldn’t explain. Even on inflation, UPA’s track record is worse than that of NDA. It was just 3.8 per cent (CPI) in 2004 as against nearly 10 per cent in 2013. Despite massive expenditure on welfare schemes such as MGNREGS, aimed at creating assets in the rural sector, the rate of capital formation fell drastically from 13.6 per cent in 2004 to 2.5 per cent during 2013.

Consistency has never been a  virtue of our politicians; even less so for an accidental PM like Manmohan. The only consistent factor has been his personal integrity and nothing else. But Manmohan has been seeking scapegoats for the collapse of his decision-making process. His first tenure, though controversial, had a mission. He stuck his neck out on the Indo-US nuclear deal, which, however, is yet to yield the fruits it promised. His second tenure could well be defined as a government sans an agenda, vision, mission or message. It has been a period during which retaining power at any cost was the only objective. In his endeavour to hold on to office, he had the Gandhi Parivar’s full support. When Manmohan made the frank confession that he was willing to reverse government decisions if instructions—or even a suggestion—came from any Gandhi family member, it was only to retain his seat for the rest of his term. The Gandhi Parivar has realised that Manmohan as the post-2014 PM candidate would further destroy the Congress’s ability to save itself from a predictable rout. Just a few weeks ago, Sonia Gandhi had declared that the party would announce its PM candidate before the General Elections. It was a clear signal to Manmohan; one which prematurely forced him to announce his withdrawal from the A-list while he was still in office. Rahul Gandhi had summoned all Congress CMs and key Union ministers to discuss future administrative and policy decisions to be taken by the Central and state governments, but the PM wasn’t even invited. All these moves were aimed at formally anointing Rahul as Manmohan’s replacement before the countdown to the elections formally begins. By paving way for a smooth succession, the PM would go down in Indian political history as one who faithfully kept the throne warm for the scion of a family that chose him over others who were much better qualified than him. Manmohan has left it to posterity to judge his stint as India’s PM. But history would be as cruel to him as his party and fair weather friends have been. Many of his detractors speculate that in the annals of time, Manmohan’s name would be recorded as the king who diminished the stature of the chair, which he occupied for a decade.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

If Rahul Gandhi persists with Style and Substance ....Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/December 29, 2013

If Rahul Gandhi Persists with Style and Substance, the Indira Era Could Well Return

With the precision of a royal chronograph, history has repeated itself. While one Gandhi has chosen to take a backseat, another has started moving into not just his mother’s shoes but her chair as well. In the 1960s, Indira replaced Jawaharlal Nehru. In the ’80s, Sanjay and Rajiv Gandhi took over from their mother. Each created their own political culture and slogans. Now, instead of reinventing itself, the 128-year-old Congress is resuscitating its past philosophy to grasp a better future. Every decade or so, it has been acquiring a new leader and newer ideology. Today’s revisionist renaissance is taking place under the leadership of Gen-3 of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. Last week, Rahul Gandhi chose to redefine the economic philosophy of the Congress-led governments at the Centre and states, instead of changing it. He also established control as well as the superiority of the party over government. It’s rare for a Gandhi scion to summon all Congress CMs, key Union ministers and important party functionaries to deliberate and debate government issues while the PM was conspicuous by absence. Even Congress president Sonia Gandhi kept away from the conclave held in the aftermath of the party’s humiliating defeat in the just concluded Assembly elections. During his six-hour interaction with over a dozen CMs and half a dozen ministers, Rahul left no one in doubt that he has taken full charge of the ship. If deliberations are any indication, the days of the market-friendly government are dead. The decade-old slant in favour of an elitist economic environment will soon be reversed. Rahul has finally chosen to revive his grandmother’s election-winning clarion call, ‘Garibi Hatao’, by directing state governments and the Centre to strengthen pro-poor schemes.

He is convinced that a large number of Congress CMs and Union ministers preen in sunny eulogies of corporate leaders and foreign think tanks and ignore the common man’s voice. Rahul seems to have been greatly influenced by the means and methods adopted by AAP in Delhi, which succeeded in pirating away the Congress base. Since his own political future is at stake, he has chosen to set his own terms and delineate his role. His critics succeeded in fostering an impression that Rahul has neither the acumen nor vision to provide an effective agenda for governance. His decade-long active political career had been termed a failure sans any impact on even his own party. He is blamed by many Congressmen for the party’s poll debacle in UP and Bihar. A powerful section of the party leadership has been quietly pushing Sonia to take more interest in the affairs of the party and government.

But Rahul proved the political Cassandras who had written him off after the Assembly polls wrong by engaging Finance Minister P Chidambaram, Defence Minister A K Antony, Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde, Law Minister Kapil Sibal, Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh and Food Minister K V Thomas in making governance and its delivery systems more accountable and responsive. In the past 15 years, never has such a large group of heavy-hitters been summoned, even by the Congress president. Indeed, Sonia has been holding party coffee klatches where CMs and Union ministers were part of the long invite list. But at Rahul’s conclave, direct interaction between ministers and CMs on issues which could revive the party’s sinking fortunes took place. The agenda was clear. The directives even clearer. Many speakers tried to raise other diversionary issues but Rahul put his foot down and told them to stick to predetermined subjects. However, to dilute offence with a mild charm offensive, he also told them to meet him informally after the event.

For the past three years, most Congress leaders have behaved like klaxons, blaring that the UPA and party are pro-active in fighting corruption and taking action against culprits. But they never owned up to the fact that they were losing credibility with the masses. For the first time, the party admitted to itself that both inflation and corruption were hurting it badly. Last week’s session was meant to establish not only Rahul’s unquestioned leadership but also to prove that he is a leader with a clear vision and mission. For the past few months, he has been taking a stand on issues opposing the majority view in the Congress. He received a lot of flak for his contrarian remarks on the law on preventing criminals from contesting elections. But his will prevailed. More recently, the party and government took an exceptionally strong anti-US line over the inhuman treatment meted out to Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade after Rahul made his views public. His contrarian stand on the Adarsh Society scam in Maharashtra is an attempt to outline himself as a rebel and a leader who wields the stick and the broom within his party. He ticked off Andhra Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy who opposed the division of the state—fall in line or fall from grace, he was told. More recently, Rahul set the tone of the future course of UPA politics when he met the press with two senior ministers by his side to seek all-party support for the Lokpal Bill.

He has told many CMs to junk tainted ministers and civil servants, and ensure that the revised Lokayukta Act is passed before February 28 in all the Congress-ruled states. It was part of his strategy to prepare the Congress to counter the Modi wave perceived to be hitting various parts of the country. While NaMo has chosen to pull Brand Atal out of the saffron cupboard to win the 2014 elections, Rahul has opted to adopt the iconic tried and tested Brand Indira to revive his dismally demoralised party. Advisers have told Rahul that the Congress has lost elections even when the country experienced a higher GDP growth. In fact, the market share of the Congress has dwindled directly in proportion to the rise in market capitalisation of India’s top 20 corporate entities. Rahul’s choice is to increase the vote share of his ancient, doddering party even if it means the fall of a few of India’s rich and mighty who have been behaving like fair weather birds of late. If the young Gandhi persists with style and substance, the country could soon see the return of the Indira era.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Not just Namo or RaGa..... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/December 22, 2013

Not Just NaMo or RaGa, 2014's Wrestling Bouts Will be Between Many PM Aspirants

The PM copyright has expired. Copycats rule. Narendra Modi is no longer the only declared Prime Ministerial candidate of a political party. The liege lords and ladies of the AIADMK, TMC, SP and Congress have begun confabulations with their paladins to declare themselves as contenders for India’s top job. Surprisingly, NaMo’s monopoly was effectively challenged by none other than one considered his natural ally in the run-up to the 2014 elections. Last week, the general council of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) unanimously passed a resolution that the party would like to see its supreme leader, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, become the Prime Minister. Their justification in staking the claim was purely regional. The party claimed that only a Tamilian could protect the interests of other Tamilians. Though Jaya has been speaking extensively on national issues and taking on the UPA government even on international subjects, it was for the first time that the AIADMK invoked local sentiments to project her as the most suitable candidate to lead the nation. If the BJP leaders are to be trusted, Jaya’s surprise gauntlet has shocked the party. Tamil Nadu sends 39 MPs to the Lok Sabha as against 26 from Gujarat. Like NaMo, Jaya is also known for her decisiveness, economic liberalism and running her state with an iron hand. She believes in free market economy and single window clearances for all projects. Her second term has been the most effective, and she has been delivering on many fronts. The similarity between 63-year-old NaMo and 65-year-old Jaya doesn’t end there. Both have successfully decimated their opponents in the state. The Southern Queen may not be crisscrossing the nation and addressing choreographed rallies like her Gujarat counterpart yet, but she has been making the right noises about federal character, UPA’s faulty economic policies while keeping away from controversial issues.

It wasn’t just Jaya’s candidature, which disturbed the high stakes game of selecting India’s next Prime Minister. L K Advani left tongues wagging with his unilateral declaration to contest Lok Sabha elections again from Gandhi Nagar in 2014; and no one has, till now, advised him not to enter the fray. Of late, Advani is seen more often in NaMo’s company, but his presence in the next Parliament  would mean new partnership options would open for current and future allies. In case the NDA falls short of the magic number of 200 seats, Advani would be the front runner for Prime Minister, not NaMo.

While the NDA is busy putting its house together, the Congress and non-NDA parties have also started thinking in terms of how to challenge Modi. The buzz in political circles is that those who expect to win 30-plus seats will be the ones to declare their national intentions. They have already announced their distaste to partner with either the Congress or BJP. This triumphant trio is Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Jayalalithaa. Each of them is capable of winning more than 30 seats on their own in their states. Jayalalithaa’s singularity is that she enjoys the Left’s support and maintains good relations with Sharad Pawar, Naveen Patnaik and Chandrababu Naidu. Opposition to her will come from North Indian leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and even Mamata. Jayalalithaa enthusiasts expect that she would need to muster the support of over 80 MPs from Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu to be Prime Minister. Odisha, Maharashtra and the NDA may extend support to her. In another scenario, the Congress and Left may prop her up to keep the NDA out of power. The nation may see over half a dozen visibly declared candidates on the oratorical skyline by the time the dates for the General Elections are announced. Some of them will try social engineering by forging caste and religion. Others could seek an ideological mandate. Once again, the choice of India’s Prime Minister is no longer limited to candidates from the two national parties. In 1996, regional outfits favoured the regional satrap H D Deve Gowda because none of the national leaders such as V P Singh or Jyoti Basu were willing to accept the responsibility of being a precarious Prime Minister.

But the Congress hasn’t given up on its claim to govern India for the third consecutive term. Since it has announced the date of the AICC session in advance, speculation is rife about Rahul Gandhi being formally declared as the party’s challenger to NaMo. The 41-year-old inheritor has decided to take the plunge and lead the party from the front. He may not be formally declared the party’s prime ministerial candidate before the elections. But the Congress could also project a Dalit or a woman with clean record as the party’s face for 2014. Rahul’s only objective and mission is to block the BJP from becoming the largest single party and stop the relentless advance of the NaMo juggernaut in its tracks. The young Gandhi and his team are convinced that their party’s future lies not in the gains it makes in 2014 but in its ability to demolish NaMo’s larger-than-life hologram. Hence, they are thinking of even supporting a non-Gandhi Congressman as Prime Minister or perhaps adopt one from a non-BJP coalition. Taking a cue from its mauling in Delhi and elsewhere, the Congress plans to retain and woo the minorities which stood by it in the Delhi Assembly polls. 2014 is as much a make or break opportunity for RaGa as it is for NaMo. Do not expect a war of ideologies. Welcome to the desi political ring of Indian-style wrestling between home-grown opponents. The one with the most innovative manoeuvres will be the victor.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Like Caesar, Be Aware and Beware of.... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/December 15, 2013

Like Caesar, Be Aware and Beware of Your New Friends More Than Sworn Foes

Dear Narendra bhai,

We go back 40 tumultuous years. In those eventful decades, the Sun Tzuian maxim that has often come to my mind is that you should keep your enemies closer to you than your friends, of which you have a few, but are outnumbered by the former. Ten years of ruling Gujarat with a clear vision and mission, you have acquired a large congeries of enemies but a larger number of new admirers and friends. Those who once led the hate campaign against you after the 2002 riots and refused to share stage with you are now jostling to climb the Jacob’s ladder of Modi-for-PM. From media to money lords, all are clamouring to give you credit for something which even you would hesitate to own up to. Last week, these fair weather friends were annunciating their new-found confidence in you. Soon after Assembly election results were announced, these self-anointed megaphones grabbed every opportunity to declare the results as an endorsement of your ability to lead the country.

By giving you credit for their record performances, your faux-friendly foes aim to isolate you among your peer group

As you are well aware, there has been hardly any talk regarding your stellar performance as Gujarat CM. Despite the obloquy the riots brought you, and your subsequent social and global isolation, you led the state from the front and restored peoples’ confidence and even that of the corporate sector with your administrative acumen. You won elections twice after 2003. Now, the moneyed class, which lost fortunes at the stock exchange through the UPA’s infirm governance, are looking at Brand Modi as the fastest way to recoup losses and not as the man who created the Modi Model of statecraft.

But 2013 is not 2003. Now you are BJP’s official candidate for PM. It is for the first time that a state leader has been able to successfully topple an established Central leadership on the basis of performance and credibility. This has caused massive heartburn to those aspiring to be PM, thanks to their close ties to elitist opinion-makers dominating the national discourse from their lofty citadels. They have never been comfortable with your uncompromising style or persona. Until now, the idea of Modi and Moditva has been anathema to them. For the past few years, most of them have been mocking both your politics of exclusivity and assertive model of functioning. They wouldn’t want a person like you who is not influenced or dictated by others at the helm of India which finds itself in the stormy seas of policy indecision and political upheaval. You believe in firm action and decisive speech. But the new class of sycophantic Machiavellis are making you suspect in the eyes of other successful BJP CMs like Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh who have also registered spectacular victories. Be forewarned that by giving you credit for their record performances, your faux-friendly foes aim to isolate you among your peer group. They have encircled you to push their own agendas. They are out to make you the envy of your compeers. In this burlesque of the absurd, they would even give you credit for excessive rainfall in parts of India. Their mindless monologues would hail you as the rescuer of the American and Indian economies as they did during a short 24-hour surge in the Indian stock market last Monday.

Instead of taking your Gujarat story to every nook and corner, these members of the Permanent Ruling Party of India are looking to manufacture inane instances of success to promote you. By diverting the debate of the BJP’s unprecedented electoral success and Congress’s complete rout to the power of your charisma, they have damaged you more than the Congress ever could. Your adversaries were quick to point out the BJP’s failure to secure an absolute majority in Delhi. The news channel, India News, ran graphics co-relating your visits to various parts of the capital with the verdicts in constituencies where your rallies were held. Of the 48 segments you had targeted, your party won only in 19. This dismal show had nothing to do with your abilities. The faction-ridden BJP wasn’t able to put up its best candidates and failed to exploit the 15 years of anti-incumbency sentiment in its favour. The young voters and even the BJP’s middle class followers were angry with the party and chose to elect Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party in its stead.

It would have been laughable if it wasn’t so despicable, the attempt of the pro-Modi opportunists to glorify your skills in reviving the speculator-driven stock markets. While newspapers were full of stories on the Modi effect on the Assembly results, business TV channels went into overdrive. Conveniently ignoring the impact of global economic recovery, they started the day by giving you credit for the 2 per cent recovery in Sensex. Representatives of FIIs and Dalal Street firms were singing in fortissimo to project you as the messiah of markets and not good governance. I’m sure you don’t sneeze when the markets catch a cold. Unlike many UPA ministers and even the PM who consider the stock market as one of the barometers of policy success, you tom-tom the economic recovery of your state as the symbol of your successful governance. But the market-makers were determined to make you the Sensei of Sensex. Both BSE and Nifty closed at 20,996 and 6259 on December 6, just two days before the votes were counted. Nikkei and Hang Seng closed at 15,665 and 24,038 the same day. When the markets opened on Monday, the day after the counting was over, the stocks showed a worldwide surge and not just in India. But for the first time Indian tycoons and opinion-makers abjured giving credit to global trends and invoked the Modi factor as the succour of stocks. On Friday, however, the markets closed lower than a week ago; the Sensex ended up at 20,715 and Nifty at 6,168. Does it mean that Brand Modi is just a bubble? You must see through the sinister designs of these temporary cheerleaders. Your work speaks for you. Your conduct is both your asset and liability. For the next few months while your detractors lie low, your promoters will create scary expectations from you. Like Caesar, beware of your friends more than your sworn foes.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla