Monday, March 17, 2014

Only way Messenger won't be shot.... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/ March 16, 2014

Only Way Messenger Won't be Shot is if the Message Delivered is Truthful

The message is increasingly becoming irrelevant. Now messengers are targets. Political parties will welcome any herald as long as the words brought are the ones that cheer. The political narrative of the General Elections has become a saga of ugly confrontation. Now leaders not only insist on choosing the messenger, they also dictate the message. Arvind Kejriwal, the progenitor of a novel politics of change, has set a precedent by announcing his intention to send all renitent media to jail. His anger may have been well placed. After all he is new to politics and has also been a media darling, unused to improbation. Most of us saw little wrong in his style or substance because he was fighting to engender a clean and transparent establishment. The press gave him maximum exposure before and after he joined politics. He and his party were cynosures of the media’s adoring eyes. Once Kejriwal stepped into active politics, each and every move came under the media’s unforgiving lens. As much as his questioning of pedestal pendragons were given prominence, queries raised about his party also got equal billing. The same yardsticks applied to probing his adversaries were used on his effervescently successful political outfit too.
But the gap between conduct of crusader Kejriwal and the rest of the political class seems be diminishing fast. As leaders acquire clout, acceptability and legitimacy, they start behaving like monarchs. They forget arrogance brings agony. Once Kejriwal became part of the system, his party adopted the same tactics as mainline parties of intimidating critics. His mission may be diametrically different, but his methods are the same as of his opponents. He perhaps believes that if other political outfits can dictate terms to the media, why can’t he with a clean track record. The media is now confronted with a situation in which the establishment has forged a coalition to defame, deter and decide its survival.
 
With the enormous growth of the media forcing it to adopt the perilous path of competitive journalism, parties have acquired the monopoly in deciding content of not only the electronic media but also of print. They now decide which anchor or club of reporters should be obliged. They also dictate kind of analysts to be invited for discussions. Should any channel exhibit defiance, they would spread the word that it should be boycotted. Moreover, parties have made it almost impossible for journalists to cover events unless the content provided by them is used without raising questions—a trend started by BJP’s PM candidate whose team understood the economic weakness of the Indian media. The BJP was the first to provide controlled feeds of rallies addressed by Modi to be telecast live for hours. For months, viewers were not informed that the ‘live’ footage was in reality provided by the party. When Rahul Gandhi learnt about the practice, a copycat Congress hired dedicated camera teams and asked the channels to carry footage the party provided. Even a regional leader like Mulayam Singh Yadav could persuade the electronic media to broadcast his rallies live using a captive system. But Kejriwal’s meetings received coverage without a penny being spent. Thus, by laying out their terms, political parties escaped the usual media scrutiny on their functioning.

Earlier, interviews of those who were herded to the rallies would be carried; empty spaces in the audience shown; and the focus would be on the hidden aspects of choreographed election events. Now the spotlight is only on the leader’s speech followed by a debate by a panel that includes collaborative columnists. Kejriwal perhaps has a point when he alleges that the media has become uncharitable to him because he is questioning the role of tycoons in the elections and the influence of big business on media coverage. For decades, the Indian media has been quite charitable towards India Inc. Barring a few exceptions, the media has abjured following corporate shenanigans and malpractices, in contrast to the vigour it brings to any dissection of the political system. But Kejriwal and supporters feel journalists have been partial towards select leaders; at the same time running a campaign against political parties.

Most newspapers and channels treat some leaders as sacrosanct compared to others even in the same party, and have unknowingly carried stories fed by them without questioning their intentions. According to media researchers, three individuals—Narendra Modi, Arvind Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi—have been given over 60 per cent prime time coverage by channels and over 50 per cent space meant for political news in the print media. According to a TV analyst, for the past seven months, Modi directly or indirectly has grabbed over 600 hours of TV space, against over 450 hours by Kejriwal and less than 300 hours by Rahul. Interestingly, the media has given extensive coverage to AAP’s second-rung leaders and a few BJP satraps while ignoring stalwarts like Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj and Nitin Gadkari.  In spite of getting such extensive publicity, none of them have spared the media. If Kejriwal has now chosen it as his latest target, the media must also share the blame. The Indian media has survived many sinister attacks on its independence. It will overcome many more if it places less emphasis on bytes, speeches, selective opinion, collusive debates and promoting class leaders at the cost of grassroots leaders. The messenger, too, would then survive the might of any political nemesis if the message delivered is truthful, irrespective of colours and contours.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Monday, March 10, 2014

India's next PM likely ....Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/ March 09, 2014

India's Next PM Likely to Be Anointed Because of Deal-Makers, Not Popular Mandate


Ideology is dead. Long live personae. A myth waits to be exploded. Arrogant leaders will only devour ideologies. Self-proclaimed national satraps who avoid facing the electorate hide in opulent strategy rooms. Sons, daughters, sisters, sons-in-law and even cousins will decide poll strategies and candidates. Manifestos will be written not by party leaders but by ad agencies and unemployed intellectuals in search of an identity. Poll 2014 began with the lofty slogan on inclusiveness combined with decisive leadership. But as the brangle over seizing winnable seats get uglier, the elections could end up as a fight between feuding family members and rootless snobs who are determined to destroy the future of popular leaders and replace them with sycophants, or even superannuated lickspittle babus. Almost all political outfits—BJP, Congress and regional parties—are once again placing their confidence in glamour, networking and pedigree as the criteria to choose candidates.

For the past three months, BJP’s premier candidate has been spreading his carbon footprint all over the country, selling his idea of India. He has never missed an opportunity to unfold his action plan for India’s growth to make it one of the most prosperous global powers. At all his 70-odd rallies attended by over 30 million people, he spoke about Swaraj and providing clean candidates. But last week, his party was involved in turf battles over seat allocations. For even BJP insiders, the confrontation between the supporters of Murali Manohar Joshi and Narendra Modi over the Varanasi seat came as a shocker. For almost a week before the meeting was held in New Delhi, poster wars and verbal scrimmages had broken out in Varanasi between both factions. Joshi has won the seat twice with comfortable margins. His performance as the HRD Minister in the NDA government might have been controversial, but he is still the BJP’s most acceptable Brahmin face in Uttar Pradesh after Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The acrimony over Varanasi brings to spotlight BJP’s dilemma on finding a seat for its PM candidate. Undoubtedly, Modi is the most popular political leader in the country. His rising acceptability in large parts of India should make the party confident of his victory from any seat in the north. But both Modi and BJP feel he should contest from Uttar Pradesh, and that too from Varanasi. The idea of Modi standing from Lucknow was dropped because of the considerable number of minority votes in the constituency. But the fight over Varanasi is an indication that even PM candidates are looking for safe seats, betraying faith in their own achievements and capacity to win from any part of the country. Another BJP leader whose name has always been advertised as a possible PM candidate appears to be backing out again, along with other rootless leaders on the plea that they have to manage the polls, which they unsuccessfully did in 2009 and ensured that the party lost the election under Advani’s generalship. Moreover, some senior party leaders have also questioned the wisdom of replacing a senior candidate with Modi—who could easily win from one of the many other seats in Uttar Pradesh. If Joshi can be asked to shift to another constituency, why can’t Modi be asked to fight from any other seat, they ask.

The saga of an individual becoming more important than an ideology doesn’t end with Modi alone. The BJP is striking deals with varied leaders with dubious track records. Ignoring the views of prominent party palatines in Bihar and Karnataka, the BJP gave Ram Vilas Paswan the saffron handshake. It legitimised caste chieftains like former Karnataka CM B S Yeddyurappa only to show that Modi was attracting allies, even those who face criminal cases and are known party-hoppers. Elsewhere in the country, BJP hospodars have been engaging the progeny of even picayune regional political padrones to extend their support for Modi’s legions.

In the meantime, within the Congress, Rahul has been losing grip over the selection process. He has been told that individuals are more powerful than a dynasty’s nationwide allure. The selection of candidates like Ashok Chavan’s wife proves that the Gandhi cognomen is not powerful enough for the Congress to ensure the victory of its party candidates. Rahul has been vocal about dropping tainted candidates but is now left to accommodate some of the party’s most notorious leaders who could easily demolish its electoral prospects if not given tickets. His experiment of choosing 15 candidates through primaries seems to have backfired because some controversial candidates appear to command much more grassroots support. The situation is much worse in the household of Lalu Prasad, who leads the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar. He chose family members over other clean, acceptable leaders. He promises to fight Nitish Kumar’s non-performing government only by putting up his wife and daughter as Lok Sabha candidates from safe seats. In the east, even Mamata Banerjee, considered to be a down-to-earth leader who believes in simple living, has fallen victim to the glamour quotient by sponsoring political novices as candidates. She feels Kollywood glitterati, sports personalities and novelists are best suited to carry forward her alternative agenda for good governance. She has been picking up former corporate lobbyists, journalists and ad honchos to compensate for the absence of thought leaders. But none of her protégés are known to have revealed any knowledge about Mamatanomics and Didipolitik.

Most constituents of the failed Third Front depend more on individuals and relatives to boost their chances. Mulayam Singh Yadav has never given up his right to nominate half-a-dozen relatives as SP candidates in the coming elections. From Kashmir to Kanyakumari, India’s most powerful leaders are looking only for individuals who can add a few votes; track records be damned. Tragically, India is likely to get a PM whose anointment was managed through visible and invisible affidations with individuals and opportunistic parties and not because of a mandate from Maximum India.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Monday, March 3, 2014

In Race to 7 RCR..... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ March 02, 2014

In Race to 7 RCR, Maximum Leaders Depend on Minimum Fuglemen to Succeed 

 


The trend of corporate mergers, acquisitions and strategic alliances are experiencing a sunset moment. Instead, the season for political mergers and acquisitions has opened. Such opportunistic deals are occuping primetime news hours more than corporate alliances of the past. With market leaders like BJP and Congress exhibiting zetetic zeal in acquiring new caste and community markets, the price of picayune political outfits have hit the roof. The market capitalisation of sinking political organisations has exceeded their net worth, thanks to massive demand from national parties. Prominent brand masters like Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi are desperately seeking alliances to either retain their market share or expand it by gobbling up small players. Neither national party holds more than 40 per cent of the electorate market. In spite of pan-India visibility, neither has a significant presence in states that send over 250 MPs to Lok Sabha. Even some regional parties are scouting for trophies as window displays to attract fence-sitters. As the countdown to battle 2014 begins, it has dawned on all that battles of the ballot cannot be won on banal ideological and individual-driven charters. The new mantra to win the Lok Sabha polls seems to be ‘Forget Development, Welcome the Caste and Community Coalition’.

After acting pricey, both Rahul and Modi have realised that any dream of capturing 7 RCR will remain a mirage unless regional satraps and caste/community leaders join them in selling their brands. Surprisingly, BJP initiated the first move. It was under the illusion that Modi will move the market like Dhoni, Bachchan, Salman or Priyanka do for brands they promote. After addressing 70-odd rallies from Kerala to Tripura, Modi and his sponsors seem to have realised that he alone is not enough to convert visible popularity into votes. BJP needed local leaders and vote mobilisers to go that extra mile to the booth. After having failed to win over any of the big leaders such as Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik, Mayawati, Jayalalithaa and Chandrababu Naidu, BJP decided wooing failed caste leaders is the only option to erase impression that the party isn’t able to garner new allies. The total worth of BJP’s new acquisitions and mergers is unlikely to create a winning tally. For the past four months, it has hawked Modi as the panacea for all ills that plague Indian politics and economics. Through expensive tech campaigns, Modi was projected as the leader who would pull India out of a mess. The feedback from huge rallies and small groups of targeted audiences had given Modi and sponsors the impression that BJP and its PM candidate don’t need alliances. Rajnath Singh told me in an interview that NDA needs no allies to form a government because Modi’s leadership was enough. The next day, however, he and his messengers were striking deals with all and sundry. Nitin Gadkari wooed Dalit leader Ramdas Athawale to join the NDA bandwagon. For the sake of a fading Dalit satrap, the party denied Rajya Sabha re-nominations to dedicated leaders. The best joke of all was the induction of Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar, which the BJP claims to be its new bastion. The two leaders collectively do not count for more than 4 per cent of the total vote. In Tamil Nadu, BJP has been panting to get Vanniar caste-dominated PMK to join NDA, ignoring pending criminal cases. It brought back former Karnataka chief minister B S Yeddyurappa to regain Lingayat votes. The clear fiat to BJP’s state leaders is to spot fringe parties to be shanghaied to NDA.

Both national parties have used corporate and NGO interlocutors to bring SP, TMC, AIADMK, BJD and TDP closer, but none of the regional outfits have bothered to return calls. Instead, Mulayam Singh Yadav took the lead in corralling most of the non-national parties on one platform to forge a pre-poll alliance. None of them are in competition in any state. It is only the Left, which stands to gain if such an alliance is midwifed because it would then get seats in states where it lacks a chance. Since forward and dominant castes in the big states show no interest in either national party, BJP is randomly picking up leaders known not for their achievements but for their caste or symbolic value. The party readmitted backward class leader Kalyan Singh not for his track record but considering his caste pull. It is an irony that the party which began its campaign as one that stood for decisive leadership and good governance is now chasing tainted and failed leaders.

Meanwhile, Congress and its supreme leaders don’t mind giving tickets to those whose reputations are sullied by judicial action and investigation. They represent only caste and community and are not responsible for transparent governance. BJP to prove its USP, has embraced superannuated controversial civil, police and army officers. If those who do not honour democracy and transparency become prominent instruments of a party’s growing acceptability, it reflects badly on its popular commitment. In the past few months, over half-a-dozen retired babus have joined the party. All the state mongers are beneficiaries of UPA’s liberal munificence and even got plum postings. Unlike AAP, which is recruiting and co-opting those who have rebelled against the system, BJP and Congress prefer the brotherhood of compromisers and opportunists. While the former nets fair weather birds, the latter has so far failed to acquire new parties or even discredited caste and community leaders. The trend is clear. The maximum leaders now depend on minimum fuglemen to succeed.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Monday, February 17, 2014

Behind Powell-Modi Handshaeke Lies US need .... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/February 16, 2014

Behind Powell-Modi Handshake Lies US Need to Capture Money Market Called India


Politics and diplomacy are poles apart. The former is the art of saying nothing while doing something, the latter practices the game of expatiating more than necessary. While politicians shout at each other to make their point, diplomats score victories through unspoken words and visible postures. This maxim was quite evident when US Ambassador Nancy Powell, of tomboy coiffure and pugnacious build, drove to Gandhinagar to meet CM Narendra Modi, who her country had been treating like a pariah for a decade. She didn’t utter a word to the media. Nor did Modi. But political supporters and opponents exchanged high-decibel verbal fire. Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid dripped sarcasm while observing he would “be interested in knowing what Powell tells Modi. In the past, countries on human rights have lectured us. It would be interesting to know what the US makes out of what happened in Gujarat”. The Congress appears to be convinced that the Powell-Modi handshake at this crucial juncture would swing the mind of voters in favour of the saffron party.

Plenipotentiary tourism to India proves that even diplomacy has no permanent friends or foes.
It was clear that diplomatic expeditions to Gandhinagar were acquiring legitimacy and significance. For the first time, political parties are gloating over foreigners endorsing their policies and personalities. Though there is hardly any commonality between politics and diplomacy, both swear to protect national interests. If Powell and other envoys before her had flown to Gandhinagar, it was meant to protect and project only the interest of nations they represent and not to promote their host or his political philosophy. The BJP leadership was vertically divided over the impact of Powell’s visit. Only those who directly or indirectly represent the interests of Dollar Power projected her sojourn as a victory for Modi. It is true that Modi has been resisting meeting the US representative at a place and time of her liking. According to party insiders, some Delhi-based Modi acolytes attempted to arrange a meeting between the two in Delhi. The idea of hosting a dinner where Modi would “just drop in” was proposed. But the Gujarat satrap torpedoed the plan, which led to panic in the US establishment. Finally they instructed Powell to fly to Ahmedabad. Though Modi has been seeking endorsements from Western powers and global corporations, he never allowed them to dictate terms. Tech-savvy campaign managers surround him. He has been enjoying the company of corporate czars. Besides attending packed, choreographed public rallies, Modi has not thrown away any chance to be seen schmoozing with the chatterati, who would dump him the moment he doesn’t make it to 7 RCR.
But the Americans also didn’t want to give the impression that Powell had exclusively gone to meet Modi. Before and after her visit, the US government made it clear that Powell has been on many pre-poll exploratory visits to many states and Gujarat was just one of her many halts to meet leaders of political parties. Interestingly, the Indian media made a big splash of the Modi-Powell parley but ignored a similar pow-wow she had with Congress leader Shankarsinh Vaghela. If she spent 45 minutes with Modi, she gave 40 minutes to Vaghela, having driven down to his home as well. He was much more forthcoming in his interaction with the media, saying “she had questions about the human rights situation in Gujarat and also wanted to know the probable scenarios in the event of either a BJP-led NDA or a Congress-led coalition winning elections”. Obviously, Powell had treated both leaders as equals. The US also announced that it looks forward to working closely with any government that the Indian people would choose. It announced that its ambassador would be meeting West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee. It is tragic that both the foreign establishment and Indian elite believe that voters can be swayed by green room interventions of a foreign hand. They seem to have forgotten that the power to influence the democratic verdict has moved away from metropolises to the caste-infested small towns and villages of India. It is obvious that foreign countries, particularly the West, are taking extraordinary interest in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. While tourist traffic may have stagnated, there has been a sharp spurt in the number of known and unknown diplomats and lobbyists from many nations descending on India. Earlier they were totally dependent on local missions, which would confine interactions to a select group of opinion-makers with savoir vivre. The Delhi-based ambassadors are finding it difficult to gauge the mood of the people as a new class and breed of leaders have sprouted in various parts of the country. For Powell and her ilk, the rise of AAP and its leadership was an unforeseen miracle. Similarly they were living under the illusion that Modi and other regional leaders could be manipulated through self-appointed promoters in Delhi. Americans and their camp followers have been spending resources and efforts on sending some Indian regional leaders to Washington to be brainwashed, but these captive megaphones failed to deliver except for organising a few seminars and chatfests. Now, they are under pressure from their leadership and business lobbies to capture the real on-the-ground situation in India, which is a big money-making market. For America, it is more important to capture markets than territory. For this, it can go to any extent. If the US is willing to talk turkey with the Taliban, which is responsible for killing 3,000 American soldiers, it can walk the extra mile in any part of the world to protect its economic interests. Plenipotentiary tourism to India proves that even diplomacy has no permanent friends or foes. The only constant factor is getting more bucks using a fleeting fake smile accompanied by a tepid handshake.
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Monday, February 10, 2014

Erosion of Parliament's Credibility ..... Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard/February 09, 2014

Erosion of Parliament's Credibility Reflects Weakening Control of Ineffective Leadership




In the dust storm of demagoguery, is the truth that our politicians are making Parliament an irrelevant institution, lost? Or is it the leadership’s lack of will which is paralysing parliamentary democracy? If the amount of business conducted in both Houses of Parliament during the past five years is any indication, it is evident that both the treasury benches and Opposition have ignored legislation in favour of filibustering and chaos. In a democracy, it is the ruling party’s right to govern. It is the Opposition’s fundamental right to be heard. But Indian Parliament has set new trends in democracy by replacing debate with cacophony and aggressive but absonous arguments. As the curtain falls on the current Lok Sabha, it will go down as the worst performing House in the history of independent India. It will earn the infamy as an institution that failed India by tow rowing over petty issues, scoring brownie points sans substance and converting the temple of democracy into an obstreperous laboratory to breed vote-banks. In the past five years, the House has sat for merely 350 days approximately during 15 sessions, as against the 500 days it was expected to assemble for the purpose of transacting business. Never before in its history has almost half of its time been lost on disruptions. The current Lok Sabha will also set the splenetic record of boasting the lowest rate of achieving legislative targets in five years. Perhaps it will be remembered as the House where the Prime Minister spoke the least, along with 100-odd MPs who were either politically aphonic or spoke rarely.
Parliament is expected to be a forum for healthy debates and discussions on issues of public interest. But can the government or the Opposition use its last sessions to merely push the individual electoral agendas of each? On the eve of the last session, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi made fervent appeals to the Opposition to cooperate with the government in pushing pending bills. Sure enough, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Sushma Swaraj, and other political paladins responded positively. But they forgot their promise the day the session began. While the Congress dissidents were determined to disrupt the House with the objective of preventing the creation of Telangana, other parties used the platform to push their own agendas. The bills on Communal Violence, Corruption and Women’s Reservation have been pending for the past few years and have been brought to the House in every session. Expectedly, Parliament’s first week was washed out without any significant business being carrying out. If one goes by the mood of the political parties, the Lok Sabha is unlikely to pass any important bill except vote for an interim budget. The UPA and opposing soapbox oraters will keep blaming each other for making lawmaking hors de combat.
The growing election-eve confrontation between the ruling party and Opposition raises another important question on the partisan profanation of Parliament. Should the last Lok Sabha session be allowed to become a theatre to do business, which will help the ruling party to reap a harvest at the hustings? Wouldn’t it be prudent and politically correct to let the last session of every Lok Sabha transact minimum business and legislate only on emergency laws? Historically, last sessions have always been politically volatile, never ending without acrimonious debates and confrontations between the ruling and opposition benches. In a parliamentary democracy, the government gets five years in office. It spends its first year understanding the system, its second in policy formulation, the third implementing its policies, the fourth on consolidation and the fifth year distributing doles to win the next election. It is this final year which leads to the total breakdown of the legislative process.
But degeneration of parliamentary democracy hasn’t been confined to the last session. Ever since the nation slipped into the coalition era, in which even a single-member party plays an important role in the government’s survival, Parliament has failed to stick to its agenda for governance and legislation. The current Lok Sabha has sat for over 2,000 hours in five years. But it has lost over 800 hours in disruptions, which means four out of 10 hours have been wasted in bobbery and attacking one another on the floor of the House. If the disruptions were based on real issues, they would have served the purpose of healthy democratic discussion. But most have been confined to insignificant issues. In an era of competitive politics, each party has been disrupting Parliament in order to address its own constituency. For example, the first week of the last session was lost because regional parties weren’t allowing the House to take up any national issue. With the Congress unwilling to rein its members, just half a dozen MPs in the 542-member House could force presiding officers to adjourn Parliament for a full day. As a result of frequent adjournments and bombilations, even the number of starred questions to be answered by ministers has shown a sharp decline from 87 in the third session to just 11 in the Winter Session. The number of unstarred questions fell from over 7,000 to just 3,500. According to Lok Sabha sources, the disruption is thanks to the deteriorating quality of questions submitted by various MPs to the secretariat. Indian Parliament has defied the natural biological law of maturity. Instead of turning into a wise and mature institution, it is being converted into an instrument of destroying faith in the parliamentary system. The fault lies not only with picayune leaders with mighty egos but also with the voters who elect its members. The erosion of Parliament’s credibility reflects the weakening control of an ineffective leadership. After all, people are getting the government they deserve.
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Monday, February 3, 2014

In Singles Match for TOP JOB ..... Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard/February 02, 2014

In Singles Match for Top Job, Only Mixed Doubles Will Decide Government Formation





Who will become the Prime Minister in May 2014? No prospective aspirant has an answer. But one thing is indubitable. Only the singles at the helm of states will anoint one among them as Indian democracy’s next Moghul. If opinion polls and drawing room gossip are any indications, only a single by status will become India’s Prime Minister. If one goes by the list of probables and others who would matter in the finals, not a single married politician’s name figures, even as a dark horse. The BJP was the first party to announce NaMo, a single man, as its choice for the top job. It was for the second time that the saffron party opted for a singular single after Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Other singles such as West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar (widower) and even BSP President Mayawati are projected as likely occupants of 7 Race Course Road. Finally, the 120-year-old Congress party has also chosen its young, single inheritor Rahul Gandhi to pick up the gauntlet on its behalf. Indians are looking for single saviours among its politicians. Since over 60 per cent of voters are single, the names of leaders reflect their natural choice. Earlier, too, three other singles—Jayalalithaa, Mamata and Naveen Patnaik—decided the fate of India’s first single PM. While they were instrumental in Vajpayee being elected the PM, they were equally responsible for his fall.

Both the BJP and Congress are convinced that their single leaders will make it to South Block’s best-appointed room. But as the line from Macbeth goes “to make assurance doubly sure”, both parties are busy wooing other singles to support their bachelor leaders. There is no doubt that the combination of singles is awesome. Opinion polls and surveys project that they will collectively or individually dictate the choice and character of the next government in Delhi. The arithmetic is arresting: between the four of them, they are likely to garner around 130 seats. Modi-led NDA is expected to get a maximum of 210 seats. Unless two of the four singles with over 50 seats support Modi, he can’t become the PM even if his charisma earns the BJP the largest single party tag. Only a mixed doubles will decide the game of government formation. The BJP and its supporters are heavily dependent on Jayalalithaa to bail them out. The AIADMK legion has already announced that it would like to see its leader installed in 7 RCR. Last year, TMC had announced that Mamata cannot be ruled out as India’s supreme ruler. If Modi can’t achieve his mission, Rahul would have to turn to the same singles for escorting him to the swearing in at Raisina Hill. This can happen only if the Congress wins enough seats to attract an ally after the election. Surprisingly, Rahul and Modi may have caught the imagination of new and young voters to a certain extent, but both have miserably failed to charm the powerful singletons who control the keys to the PM’s office. Both contenders have hardly been in direct touch with members of the singles club. Barring a few photo-ops that NaMo got with Jayalalithaa, the two leaders have not been seen even making political overtures to other singles together. According to political analysts, it is for the first time in India’s democratic politics that personal egos and their vice-like grip over their respective organisations has made Indian political calculations unstable and unpredictable. With Mamata, Mayawati, Jayalalithaa and Patnaik keeping their cards close to their chests, Indian chatterati and foreign market manipulators are hedging their bets on the contours of the future dispensation.
The problem with foreign-educated and FII-funded experts is that they have failed to understand the political mindset of those who have risen from the grassroots, or through massive and traumatic inner party struggles, or simply nurtured in an elite-dominated social hierarchy. Mayawati and Mamata were ignored by the highly class and pedigree-conscious establishment. The two singles were the original architects of the aam aadmi paradigm, raising their outfits from scratch to acquire the status of queen or kingmaker. Jayalalithaa was humiliated by rootless satraps of her party after MGR’s death. She revived the AIADMK through sheer hard work and ideological differentiation. Only Patnaik entered politics with a degree and pedigree. But he learnt faster than his father Biju Patnaik and decimated his opponents with beguiling charisma. All of them are leaders of the parties they created themselves, which sustained their acceptability. While there is no ideological commonality between these four singles, each has his or her own political priorities and views on the political Carte du Tendre and would like to dictate not only the choice of the next PM, but the agenda for governance as well. At the moment, they have not been in dialogue with one another about any future coalition. But they have made it clear that they would like to instal a non-NDA and non-Congress government at the Centre. But consistency has never been a politician’s virtue.
In contrast to self-made regional satraps, both Modi and Rahul have inherited huge organisational support from their respective parties. Modi has added value to BJP with his outstanding performance as Gujarat chief minister. But without the BJP he may not get even one-fourth of the votes, which the party is capable of winning. Rahul’s situation is a little better as the Congress sans a Gandhi is an old Ambassador car without fuel. But a single difference—neither leader possesses the disarming charm or the smiling silence of Atal Bihari Vajpayee to win friends and influence enemies. Even Vajpayee was ejected from his office by the force of these singles.
Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla