No-we-can’t (grow money on trees) Manmohan tune won't work
Crisis creates leaders. But there are few leaders who create
crises and land themselves in it. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has acquired
the unique distinction of creating many a crisis. When all was going well for
the ruling party, his government was caught first in the Coalgate mess, and
later in the wrongly timed tornado of economic reforms. Last week, he spoke
from the heart about his agonising responsibility as the Prime Minister for
about 20 minutes. Since it was his first address to the nation since 2009
(barring the routine Independence Day speech), the whole country was glued to
TV screens. Manmohan’s admirers and global promoters were hoping he would
reassert and rediscover himself. They expected him to say: “Yes, we can, we
have and we shall deliver.” But when he finished his speech, more questions
were raised about his political authority and future vision for change. His
resolve to go down fighting was conspicuous by its absence. His tendency to
take risks, however, was quite visible. Quite predictably, he won bouquets from
Corporate India—his natural constituency—but brickbats from the alienated
political constituency of middle and lower middle class India. He was expected
to lead with prime ministerial elan. Instead, he ended up parroting the same palliatives and prescriptions which were earlier being
trotted out by his erudite and articulate ministerial colleagues.
Manmohan’s economics was right but his equations were wrong.
Since he spoke in Hindi, his speech was meant to score a political point. He
justified the massive rise in diesel prices because “money doesn’t grow on
trees”—a phrase normally used by mediocre politicians. Eyebrows were raised
because public expenditure has grown due to the expansion of the government,
massive concessions to India Inc, the allotment of natural resources to the
private sector, runaway prices and the government’s reluctance to tax the rich
and mighty. Manmohan’s political rivals have challenged his contention that
diesel prices were raised to prevent users of luxury vehicles from taking
advantage of the subsidy. They assert that the Prime Minister conveniently
forgot that diesel is the major fuel for farmers to run water pumps, tractors
and even power. Over 90 per cent of it is consumed by rural India, the public
transport system and power generators so that smaller towns and villages can
survive. In spite of the UPA regime adding a record 50,000 MW power generation
capacity, more than three-fourths of India gets power for less than eight hours
per day. Most of these moribund power plants are sick testimonies to the
failure of the leadership to ensure proper coal and gas linkages for generation
of electricity. As a result, banks have accumulated huge, dubious loans and the
nation has been deprived of power, which could have been a source of massive
income and employment for the country.
But the beauty of statistical narration is that it can tell
two contradictory stories at the same time. Being an economist, the Prime
Minister used numbers to numb his opponents. But they recovered to throw
another set of figures back to prove his economics irrelevant. It was clear
from the confrontationist political discourse that the Prime Minister and his
advisers haven’t learnt the art of creating a consensus even on good economics.
The government hasn’t treated its allies with the respect they deserve. The
Trinamool Congress made it clear that it wasn’t consulted on any of the latest
policy issues. The Coordination Committee was revived under pressure from
Sharad Pawar to resolve contentious matters. Being a loner, the Prime Minister
hardly meets political leaders—from other parties or his own—to discuss and get
feedback on various subjects. The usual convention of meeting MPs in groups
during Parliament sessions has become a rarity. Some senior Congress leaders
feel that Manmohan could have taken the initiative to open a dialogue with all
the stakeholders and convince them of his roadmap for economic recovery. He
could have called meetings of all the chief ministers, leaders of all political
parties and even prominent policy-makers to explain his compulsions. Such an
exercise would have given powerful ammunition to be used against his opponents.
Unfortunately, even after more than eight years in office,
the Prime Minister hasn’t evolved into a consensus builder, which is an
essential condition to successfully lead a coalition government. With his hard
stand on questionable reforms, not only has he lost an ally, it has also led to
another round of deal-makings and concessions to “win over new friends”. The
Congress can’t retain power until 2014 by following Manmohan’s economic agenda
and retaining its allies at the same time. To ensure a semblance of stability,
the party will have to compromise on policies or face the elections earlier. It
is no longer in a position to have its cake and eat it, and that too alone.
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com;
Follow him on Twitter @PrabhuChawla
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