Ideological Compatibility Among Ministerial Troika Strengthens Modi-fied Pak Policy
According to the great 6th century BC Chinese general Sun Tzu, who authored The Art of War, “Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack.” Now in 21st century India, for the first time since Independence, a strong defence and offence strategy is in place. This was evident on Friday when the Indian Coast Guard intercepted a Pakistani boat laden with explosives and terrorists whose ostensible purpose was to repeat the 26/11 attacks. The pre-emptive action was the outcome of a properly coordinated strategy prepared by the ministries of Home, Defence and External Affairs with the PMO fully in the loop on one of the most successful operations against India’s enemies.
Undoubtedly, the number of Pakistani incursions, LoC
violations and terrorist infiltration has risen during the past six
months, but the Modi government has decided to pay Pakistan back in the
same coin, be it forceful retaliation to enemy fire or blowing up a
terrorist boat. The wait and watch approach to Pakistan has been thrown
into the dungheap. If comments made by the stakeholders of India’s
security are indications, it is obvious that the PM has chosen to follow
bullets-for-bullets tactics towards Pakistan.
The change in
perception and strategy is not by accident. It is embedded in the
composition of Modi’s Cabinet and the restructured security
establishment. Earlier, various ministers and officials were able to
impose their personal preferences when it came to dealing with Pak-led
terrorism. There was little ideological connectivity between those who
ran the ministries of Defence, Home and External Affairs. Modi has
ensured that the Big Three—Home Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs
Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Manohar
Parrikar—complement, instead of confronting each other on national
security. Not only are they die-hard Hindutva followers, but also none
of them have been part of any kind of pro-Pak backroom diplomacy or
belong to the peacenik club. No power player in any Western capital
could ever have dreamt that an IIT-ian from a tiny state like Goa would
be chosen to lead India’s gargantuan defence ministry. Swaraj and
Rajnath are ‘fortunate’ victims of the class apartheid enforced by the
Indian elite. Defence agents, international lobbyists and hawkers of
Hawks jets, fighter planes, submarines and other defence equipment had
thought it was below their dignity to include them on their mailing
lists. Hence, the exclusivity of the three tigers has become India’s
virtue.
The champions of dialogue and commerce with Pakistan would
never have imagined the triumvirate occupying three of the five
powerful corner rooms in South and North Blocks, where security
strategies are evolved. Rajnath, Parrikar and Swaraj have acquired a
reputation of a troika on a track, which means to destroy those hostile
to India. They are working not for fame in Washington, London, New York,
Mumbai or Lutyens’ Delhi but to make Pakistan an international pariah
who breeds and feeds jihadists. Their mission is smooth, because the PM
himself and NSA Ajit Doval have given them total support in their
endeavour.
Defence analysts expect that ideological compatibility
of the key players of Indian defence strategy will be able to restore
some sanity to the Pak Army and its political leadership. Now, through
Track-II brigade, they will not be able to infiltrate directly or
indirectly Modi’s new fortress-like framework. Rajnath, Swaraj, Parrikar
and Doval have minds of their own and directly report and discuss every
issue with the PM. They have blighted the chances of many retired
defence officials, superannuated diplomats, journalists and corporate
leaders by making them irrelevant, and thus unemployable by any
Janus-faced international agency or NGO, which encourages the arms race
while propagating dialogue. Most of them were collecting commercial and
strategic information during interactions with ministers and senior
civil servants in previous regimes. All such informal espionage has
stopped for the time being, since there are no conflicts of opinion
either in the BJP’s political forums or the government hierarchy.
Modi,
it seems, has learnt lessons from the past and has avoided choosing
opportunists who pursued their own agendas without staying true to
self-professed ideology. With promise of strong action against Pakistan
during election rallies, Modi was deviating from the thinking of even
Atal Bihari Vajpayee, whose political DNA made him evade confrontation
in dealing with Pakistan. Kargil was forced on him. Vajpayee’s
magnanimity was mistaken as weakness. During NDA I, there were
differences between home minister L K Advani, foreign minister Jaswant
Singh, defence minister George Fernandes and NSA Brijesh Mishra on
Pakistan policy. Advani was overruled many times when he suggested
strong action against the country whenever its terror plots were
unearthed. The pro-US Mishra was always in favour of indulging Pakistan.
Despite strong division within the Cabinet, Jaswant bartered with
terrorists and accompanied them to Afghanistan to bring back a hijacked
Indian Airlines plane in December 1999.
During the UPA’s rule,
from PM Manmohan Singh to defence minister A K Antony, not one leader
favoured an eye-for-an-eye approach towards Pakistan. Home minister
Shivraj Patil, Antony and foreign ministers like S M Krishna, Natwar
Singh and Salman Khurshid followed the diktat from the PMO or NSA Shiv
Shankar Menon. The regime was habitually receptive to guidance from the
US. Starting from 1950, none of the over three dozen defence, external
affairs and home ministers had ever spoken—until now—in one voice on a
decisive Pakistan policy. From Nehru to Manmohan, it was the
acceptability among the classes and not the masses that dictated India’s
response to its belligerent neighbour. All our leaders were influenced
by non-state players of India or Pakistan while taking the final call.
Modi has so far resisted all external pressures, which have tried to
influence his strategic and diplomatic initiatives. The Modi-fied
command and response mechanism has sent a clear message. The PM is
convinced that any “strategy without tactics is the shortest route to
victory”. Sun Tzu would agree.
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla
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