Blackmail by Regional Parties Would End If Both Gandhis and Modi Stick to Going it Alone
The Congress is out. But its High Command is not down yet. The BJP is
in full command of national politics and its High Command is aiming
very high. If the signals and posturing of the leadership of both the
parties are indications, it is clear that they want to marginalise and
manacle regional parties and caste satraps. According to insiders in
both the parties, regional outfits in the election-bound states of Jammu
and Kashmir and Jharkhand would not be invited to join as poll
partners. Last week, Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi decided to
assert his authority, as he is wont to sporadically. He directed his
team to inform the Shibu Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha to take a walk
or fall in line. At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his
A-Team told Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray to show up at Maharashtra
Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’ swearing-in ceremony or stay indoors
forever. Now, by all indications, both national parties will fight the
J&K polls without local allies like the Abdullahs-led National
Conference (NC) and the Mufti Mohammed Sayeed-led People’s Democratic
Party (PDP).
The signs are very clear that India is heading
towards bi-polar politics in which regional parties would neither be
able to dictate government formation nor dominate the agenda for
governance. Modi took the lead by asserting his authority and advising
his political operators to ensure that regional leaders did not decide
the terms of engagement. Soon after winning an unprecedented mandate in
the Lok Sabha elections, he snapped ties with ally Haryana Janhit
Congress in Haryana and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra in the state polls. His
idea was to test the winnability and acceptability of national leaders
and parties in states where local castes and parochial parties played
decisive roles. Taking a cue from the BJP, the Congress followed the
same principle of setting terms and offering unacceptable deals to local
partners. As the BJP dumped its 25-year ally in Maharashtra, the
Congress made it impossible for the NCP to continue as a coalition
partner. The past state polls turned out to be a battle between regional
sentiments and national aspirations. The voters chose Modi and his
mission. For the first time in history, the BJP formed the government,
both in Haryana and Maharashtra.
Presently, the Congress’ decision
on Jharkhand has far-reaching political consequences. By all
indications, the tiny state is poised to vote for the saffron party,
which has decided to fly solo. Perhaps, the Congress is imitating this
principle in order to recapture its number two position and decimate the
two regional outfits—JMM and BJP rebel Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand
Vikas Morcha. Jharkhand has been most unstable since it became an
independent state, carved out of Bihar. Of the three new states, it is
the only economically regressive one, while Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh
are performing superlatively.
The decision to marginalise
regional parties appears to have been taken in the spindrift of the Modi
Wave in the Lok Sabha elections. Before that, NaMo was on a binge to
forge alliances with anyone and everyone to prove his growing
acceptability. He encouraged defections. He struck deals with
caste-based parties in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, even making tainted
leaders a part of the grand alliance. Soon afterwards, he realised that
the NDA won not because of these alliances but solely due to his
charisma and promises. Similarly, the Congress felt that none of the
regional parties could bring it additional votes, since it had lost its
traditional bases already.
According to a recent review done by
some prominent Congress leaders, it was found that the party has been
shrinking ever since Rajiv Gandhi chose in the late 80s to partner with
local parties in the north and the west. The trend started in 1990 in
Uttar Pradesh, where the Congress struck an alliance with Mulayam Singh
Yadav, and later with Mayawati. Since then, it has not won even 10 per
cent of the total Assembly seats. In each state where it had local
frenemies, its vote share and seats nose-dived. The loss of Maharashtra,
a traditional Congress bastion, to the BJP has come as big shock. After
its recent electoral reverses, the Congress has lost almost all the big
states except Karnataka. It rules Kerala as part of a shaky alliance.
The party cannot think of returning to power in any other southern state
in the immediate future. In the east, it rules in picayune states,
while regional parties control the major ones such as West Bengal,
Odisha and Bihar. In the north, the forecast is grim. It has no hope in
hell to return to power in Uttar Pradesh. It is pitted in a direct fight
with the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Goa
and Gujarat. If one surveys India’s political colours, no Congress
rainbow shines over 300-odd Lok Sabha seats even though the party rules
over a dozen tiny states. On the other hand, the BJP has gained access
to over 100 seats, which it had never won in the past. Modi has already
chosen a potent and dangerous slogan, which asks voters to vote for the
party in the state, which is in sync with the ruling party at the
Centre. The voters of both Haryana and Maharashtra fell for this
promising postulate.
The Congress has now chosen to mimic the Modi
Mantra. After two decades of flirtations with regional leaders to keep
the BJP out of power, the Gandhi Parivar has realised that the strategy
has boomeranged. Not only has the Congress been forced to vacate its
political base for local parties, it also faces the danger of being
reduced to a regional party led by a national leadership. Its High
Command is not yet reconciled to the idea that a regional leader has
acquired a pan-India status with a national following. National leaders
like the Gandhis are about to become stateless leaders. The fear of
losing their iconic halo has compelled the Gandhis to go it alone.
Meanwhile, Modi’s aspirational mission to become a global leader is
driving him to decimate his adversaries. If both the Gandhis and Modi
stick to their guns, the country would be rid of the pox of political
blackmail by regional parties and caste calculations. To achieve this,
the Gandhis on their part will have to show the patience of a Sphinx.
prabhuchawla@ newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla
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