By Winning Assemblies, PM Aims to Decimate Regional Chiefs and Capture Rajya Sabha
Normally, after winning a war, losing a few minor battles shouldn’t
bother a warrior. But PM Narendra Modi and his trusted party chief Amit
Shah are treating the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and
Haryana as yet another war to be won in order to consolidate their
control over India’s political market. If the colour and character of
their campaign are indications, it is a fight between Modi and the
rest—it’s Lok Sabha election redux, with the BJP projecting NaMo as its
only candidate in all the 288 and 90 Assembly seats in Maharashtra and
Haryana respectively.
Never since Independence has a PM become the
lone star of a local election. Starting from the Delhi border with
Rajasthan on one side and Uttar Pradesh on the other, all roads, walls
and hoardings carry only Modi’s redoubtable visage. The name and picture
of the local candidate is hardly visible or advertised. The BJP’s
election slogan has also been chosen thoughtfully. If the war cry in the
2014 General Elections was Abki Baar Modi Sarkar (It’s time for a Modi
government), it has coined an extended slogan, Chalo Chalein Modi Ke
Saath (Let’s move with Modi) for the states. The party and its leaders,
whether it is Shah or any Cabinet minister, never disclose the name of
the CM candidate in a state poll. Instead they ask voters to vote for a
government, which will work with Modi. Modi promises a Team India
comprising CMs from his party alone. This is contrary to his
announcement during the Lok Sabha election campaign that all CMs,
irrespective of their political affiliations, would be co-opted. But the
tone and tenor of Modi’s speeches during the Assembly poll campaigns
reflect a resolve to establish his control over a large swathe of
political India. His discourse sounds exactly like Indira Gandhi’s, who
promoted a strong Centre and weak states during her reign. Modi himself
was as a chief minister for 12 years. Now that he is India’s PM, he
would like his model to be implemented unchallenged. If the Congress
sans Indira or any other Gandhi is like a vehicle that has run out of
fuel, the BJP without Modi is like a fish out of water. Modi has
credibility and vigour to be numero uno, while the BJP lacks any of
these virtues. The party couldn’t find winnable candidates in over 30
per cent of the constituencies in Haryana and Maharashtra. When the
public simulacrum reflected a massive defeat for the BJP minus a
charismatic local chieftain, it decided to invoke Moditva. It is for the
first time that a PM is addressing such a large number of rallies
during any Assembly poll.
Modi is aiming at more than a decisive
victory in the two states. He sees an invincible opportunity. If he wins
both, it would be the beginning of the BJP seizing better control not
only in the states but also in the Rajya Sabha, where it is in a
hopeless minority. Moreover, a victory will also provide him with the
authority to impose CMs of his choice in Maharashtra and Haryana.
Currently, barring Gujarat CM Anandiben Patel, the previous
establishment had chosen the remaining three CMs in Madhya Pradesh,
Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Modi decided to take charge of the Assembly
campaign after the party suffered humiliating defeats in the by-polls
held in Bihar, UP and Rajasthan in July. Soon after his return from a
highly successful trip to the US, Modi decided to defy the convention of
the PM’s minimum participation in regional elections. He sent clear
signals that he would be available for any number of rallies in any part
of the two states, even at the cost of getting a sore throat.
NaMo
is neither a compromiser nor a reconciliator regarding his principles
or mission. Contrary to general belief, it was only after his nudge and
nod that the party broke its 25-year-old alliance with Shiv Sena in
Maharashtra and a decade-old relationship with Haryana Janhit Congress
led by Kuldeep Bishnoi. Modi wanted to send a clear message to his
(diminished) detractors in the party that he doesn’t need them and that
his dependable party chief can deliver the states without the help of
allies. Its political divorces have left BJP without any significant
ally in all the major states. Earlier, it had broken ties with Nitish
Kumar in Bihar. At the moment, it has picayune parties like the Akali
Dal and Ram Vilas Paswan as partners, along with Chandrababu Naidu. The
viciousness of the speeches being made in Haryana by saffron leaders
against the Akali Dal is an indication of BJP’s strained relationship
with the Punjab party.
Modi’s road map is clear. He wants the BJP
to jettison needling regional allies and capture as many states as
possible alone. His real purpose is to improve the BJP’s strength in the
Rajya Sabha, which can happen only if it gets a majority on its own in
the states. If they continue to remain under non-BJP control, the party
wouldn’t be able to increase its current number of 43 MPs to 60 in the
next 10 years. Maharashtra sends 19 members to the Rajya Sabha, the
second highest after Uttar Pradesh, which has 31. At the moment, the BJP
has only three members from the Maratha state. Modi wants to treble his
party’s tally. Before his five-year term expires, 20 states would have
gone to the polls. Modi has targeted Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Tamil
Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi and Karnataka, which
account for over 90 seats while the BJP has just about a dozen from
these states. Once he captures Maharashtra and Haryana, no party would
be able to stop the Modi juggernaut from capturing the other states.
NaMo has already set new records in politics. But for him, even the sky
is not the limit. When challenged, Modi’s posture becomes even more
determined. His current endeavour seems to be to decimate regional
leaders and become India’s most feared and adored national leader.
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