Manmohan's air miles ... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/ October 20, 2013

Manmohan’s air miles add up to little in way of India’s diplomatic success in nine years

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The success of diplomacy is not measured in terms of the air miles showing on the odometer of official peregrinations. Nor is it determined by hours spent gabbing during salubrious breakfasts, lunches or dinners. Such ceremonial visits are like climbing trees that have no fruits to pluck. Manmohan Singh is perhaps the most travelled Indian PM since Rajiv Gandhi. According to estimates, he has flown over a million miles covering 50 countries since he was handed the keys to 7 Race Course Road. In the last nine years, he has spent every 10th day in some foreign city. Since wooing superpowers is his only global mission, over half the visits have been to the US, China, Japan, UK and Russia, with US leading the charts with 11 visits. As Manmohan prepares for his 36th sojourn abroad—possibly the last of his second tenure as PM—diplomacy-watchers have started assessing the real impact of his 80 visits over nine years. On the face of it, relations with neighbours have worsened. Both China and US are showing no concern for our security and economic woes. Even India’s most trusted ally, Russia, is suspicious of our growing proximity to the American establishment. Europe, which used to look up to our economist PM for guidance, is ignoring us.

From being the most successful and sought-after PM, Manmohan is no longer one of the movers and shakers of international affairs. Perhaps our only achievement appears to be a change in adjective to define today’s India —from a developing economy, the country is now an emerging economy struggling to acquire a wannabe superpower status. Manmohan’s India is confined to the margins of the playfield of high-powered diplomacy, which defines and determines fortunes of the world. 

Even after a decade of extensive lobbying, Manmohan’s dream of India acquiring a permanent seat in the Security Council remains a mirage, despite doling out many economic concessions to those who count in New York. None of the beneficiaries of India’s economic liberalisation and munificence in terms on unrestricted access to Indian markets have gone beyond the written speeches they deliver at formal dinners, expressing sympathy for India’s claim for a permanent place at the UN high table. In spite of making over a dozen visits to the US, the PM has failed to force the American president to move an inch away from his empathy with Pakistan. Daily incursions and killing of jawans along the LoC does not bother any of the superpowers who continue to flirt with the democratically-elected but ISI controlled Pak premier, Nawaz Sharif. Ever since he assumed power, the number of border violations has risen enormously. He shows no regret. When Manmohan visits China and Russia this week, he will have to remind his hosts about the unfulfilled promises on border issues and civil nuclear cooperation. Russia is determined to rake up religious issues like the construction of a Russian orthodox church in Lutyen’s Delhi in exchange for letting a Krishna Temple function in Moscow. According to foreign policy experts, it is mandatory for every head of government to keep visiting friendly countries for the sake of visibility and impact. Since India has gargantuan stakes in the global economy, the PM and colleagues like the finance minister, commerce minister and external affairs minister keep making customary visits to numerous foreign capitals to revive dialogues and engage the hosts in building new relationships. But to succeed, objectives of economic and strategic diplomacy should be well defined. Going by our failed initiatives in the neighbourhood, it is clear that India hasn’t been able to hone the contours of its engagement with countries like Sri Lanka or even bantamweight Maldives, which was once considered India’s most trusted ally in the Indian Ocean. Last week, even a high-level visit to the island by the articulate Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh failed to yield results. She could not bring Maldivian warring factions around so that elections could take place again. In Bangladesh, PM Sheikh Hasina is jittery because South Block couldn’t consolidate her position at home by addressing her issues with India. India may have become a trillion-dollar economy, but is still not in a position to influence political kinetics of a tiny island. So much for the vast carbon footprint of our frequent-flier PM.  

The perennial fight for turf between the IFS and IAS almost assumed confrontationist contours recently over the appointment of a chief of mission to ASEAN in Jakarta. The PM, during his visit to Indonesia, had announced that India would soon have a full-fledged mission headed by an ambassador to deal with growing economic relations between ASEAN countries. All other members have already posted diplomats in Jakarta. Before the PM made his decision public, a serious fight erupted between the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and Department of Economic Affairs (DEA). The DEA felt that the post should go to an IAS officer as they are the ones who have acquired expertise in handling international trade and economic issues. But MEA wouldn’t let the post go. Finally, the PM used his veto power and directed MEA to appoint a senior diplomat. Now the fun has begun in South Block as many diplomats are chasing newly created sinecures which perhaps may carry more powers and perks.

It is not for the first time that IAS and IFS have been locked in turf war for important posts abroad. Ever since India decided to open its markets and introduce economic reforms, the IAS lobby has been staking claim on any assignment which is remotely connected with economic and financial issues. Actually the fight began with the appointment of India’s Ambassador to World Trade Organisation. The IFS wanted one of its members to be chosen, but IAS won the battle. But IFS fraternity continued with its fight. An attempt was made by MEA during the NDA regime to snatch the coveted post from the IAS. PM Vajpayee succumbed to the pressure and appointed an IFS officer as India’s ambassador to WTO. But IAS clan struck back through then commerce minister Murasoli Maran who resigned in protest. Vajpayee reversed his decision and the post was restored to IAS by sending K M Chandrasekhar who later became Union Cabinet Secretary.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

By Redefining Role ..... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/October 13, 2013

By redefining role, interventionist President proves he is no rubber stamp

Is it a constitutional catastrophe or a constitutional crisis? Or is part of the constitutional mechanism, which has accidentally been set in motion to prevent the collapse of democratic institutions? For the first time, the President is seen as the saviour of democratic traditions; sensitive to public emotions in the wake of Cyclone Phailin, he cut short his West Bengal visit during Pujo. On the other hand, the Prime Minister and the Cabinet which advises the President portray themselves as bulldozers of ethical governance. The spotlight has shifted from a non-performing PM to a pro-active President.

For the past few weeks, Pranab Mukherjee, India’s 13th President, has been active in restoring a semblance of balance in the age of confrontationist politics. As the countdown for the crucial General Elections begins, he is formulating his role and reactions to various surprises, which elections may throw up. If his recent actions are any indication, Mukherjee is emerging as the President who doesn’t confine his role to ceremonial talks, but also speaks forcefully. He nudged the UPA leadership to reconsider the ordinance on criminals in politics. He changed his pre-scheduled Bihar programme to avoid being caught in a conflict between the JD(U) and BJP over Narendra Modi’s visit to the state at the same time. Mukherjee’s recent weeklong sojourn to Denmark and Turkey left his signature mark on diplomacy, which led to the signing of many agreements pending for over a decade. Before launching the premier visit by an Indian President to Belgium, he told all ministries to prepare a proper agenda so that his visit doesn’t turn out to be just another junket. Just before he left, the Rashtrapati sprang a surprise on diplomats by almost blaming Pakistan directly for cross-border terrorism by remarking, “terrorists don’t come from heaven”. Of late, Congress managers have been sifting through Mukherjee’s speeches and comments to decipher his frame of mind. They suspect that he is acquiring the role of both a titular Head of State and an invisible influence on the institution of PM. The buzz in the corridors of power is that President is now doing what he would have done as the Prime Minister of a coalition government.

If Mukherjee continues with his assertive constitutional agenda, he would perhaps earn a place in history as the best prime minister the Congress party failed to choose.

It is too early to define his definitive identity, but Mukherjee seems to possess massive energy to shake and shape the future contours of Indian politics and governance. If Dr APJ Kalam earned the sobriquet of “People’s President”, Mukherjee is carving out his own niche of an interpositionist President who wouldn’t mind asserting his constitutional rights to correct any impropriety in governance and misuse of Constitution. L K Advani, the National Democratic Alliance chairman, embarrassed the President when he gave full credit to Mukherjee and not Rahul Gandhi for the premature demise of the ordinance. Mukherjee seems to be finding ways and means to provide face-saving devices to ruling establishment at the Centre and in the states to bail out of ugly situations. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was determined to use the President’s visit as a ploy to prevent crowds from reaching the venue of Modi’s rally on October 27, but Mukherjee understood the trap and decided to return to Rashtrapati Bhavan the same day. Such politically correct moves are indicative of Mukherjee’s attempt to redefine the role of the Head of State, since his purpose is not merely to avoid being stereotyped as a rubber stamp or an activist President.

Mukherjee asserts himself with authority and dignity. Since he is the first President who has held all the important portfolios of defence, finance, commerce and external affairs previously, he knows better than most about how decisions and policies are formalised in a Cabinet system. For example, when the PM sent him the file seeking his approval for the ordinance, Mukherjee didn’t return it after signing on the dotted line, as most of his predecessors would have done. He summoned three important ministers—Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kamal Nath, Law Minister Kapil Sibal and Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde. All of them have been his colleagues in the party for decades. They weren’t expecting his probing questions. Never before has a President asked ministers to produce minutes or records of Cabinet discussions or political confabulations. Mukherjee asked them to produce the proceedings of both the Cabinet meeting and the all-party meet where the decision to promulgate the ordinance was taken. He discomfited them by asking for the reason behind their hurry. They did not return with answers. Instead, the Cabinet approached him to withdraw its request for his approval.

It is quite evident that Mukherjee is arming himself with infallible arguments to face any situation. He is marshalling his facts to disarm those who challenge his formulations. As an avid reader of history, the Rashtrapati has already retrieved the files from the archives concerning the formation of various past coalition governments. Three previous Presidents—R Venkataraman, Shankar Dayal Sharma and K R Narayanan—had taken different positions on how to choose a party to form the government. Mukherjee has found inconsistencies in each. According to Rashtrapati Bhavan watchers, the President has been interacting with numerous legal luminaries, including former chief justices, social activists and even sane political leaders to seek their views on many complex issues concerning security, political stability and economic crises. The limitations of the geographical boundaries of Raisina Hill haven’t deterred its latest incumbent from reaching out to those whose voice is gagged and who are denied access to India’s high and mighty. If Mukherjee continues with his assertive constitutional agenda, he would perhaps earn a place in history as the best prime minister the Congress party failed to choose or spot after Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

It takes much more than just talk .... Power & Politics /The SundayStandard/ September 29, 2013

It takes much more than just talk to become country's maximum leader

A volcanic eruption incinerates all that is dead or alive that stands in its way. When Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi’s inner voice emerged finally on Friday, it not only shook the UPA government’s foundations but polarised the Congress party itself. His 150-second intervention at the press briefing on the controversial ordinance devastated the national discourse on crime in politics. The subtext of his vehemence was a Churchillian riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma—did he undermine the office of the Prime Minister or convert an adversity into an opportunity?

The Gandhis have now realised that CEO Singh and his executives have outlived their utility and can’t ensure profits anymore.

It was a war of words and not ideologies of two eminent individuals. While PM Manmohan Singh manages the compulsions and contradictions of his coalition government to remain in power, the Congress vice-president appears to be fighting for survival of his party, the ownership of which the Gandhis acquired through democratic means. Rahul’s accidental outburst marks the arrival of the Rahul Congress and the beginning of the end of the conventional one. He has sent a clear signal to party leaders and the PM that he is no more just a vice-president. He has taken charge and would like to eject those who can’t deliver according to his expectations. It’s not a mere coincidence that the Congress GenNext, comprising scions of many top leaders, is leading the Congress Spring. The fruits of political family trees are ready for harvest as the party’s core team is flooded with sons and daughters of former ministers, current and former CMs and state Congress leaders. Even progenies of retired civil servants are active as members of Rahul’s backroom organisational team. Does it mean that his latest offensive against the government is an attempt to directly dictate and decide future policy formulations and replace an outdated leadership with younger leaders who have more at stake in future of the Congress? Or is it prompted by frustration stemming from his own failure to effectively lead the party in the past nine years? Rahul has spoken out to prove that he not only has views but also enjoys the authority to admonish his government when required.

Gandhi Jr’s opponents have ridiculed his rare parliamentary appearances and occasional disruptive interventions in public debates. Rahul has been under attack for his silence over mismanagement of the government and party. He has been accused of performing vanishing acts when his party was looking towards him for guidance. His acerbic, contemptuous and piercing remarks against the dubious ordinance have more to do with redeeming the sagging image and plummeting fortunes of the party, which he inherited from his mother Sonia Gandhi. Rarely has a leader of a ruling party termed an action of his or her government as “nonsense” and advised followers to tear up a decisive document and throw it away. Rarely has a leader publicly questioned the wisdom of his PM by instructing him to retract his ‘nonsensical’ decision taken at the behest of his Cabinet comprising 30 ministers who belong to his own party and allies. Rarely have young ministers protested a decision of their own Cabinet. But the Congress is not a political party. And Rahul is not just any leader. He is an owner who expects rich dividends. Singh was chosen as PM or CEO of the government not because of merit. He was picked by the Gandhis to lead a political company that they own. As it happens in many family-owned corporates, young inheritors rarely get along with executives chosen and trusted by forbearers since they have been brought up in a different milieu and play by their own rules. Initially they tolerate the status quo but are always on the lookout for an opportunity to dismantle the old edifice and replace with their own. The Gandhis are no exception. It’s in their DNA to encourage dissent against the establishment and discard the antediluvians. Indira Gandhi defenestrated the Syndicate and reinvented the Congress in her own image. Her son Sanjay Gandhi introduced Youth Dominance. He was a young man in a hurry and would have changed both the Congress culture and ideology had he not been snatched away by a divine nemesis. Rajiv Gandhi, who became an accidental PM after his mother’s tragic assassination, was already in the process of superimposing suave urban technocrats on the Congress structure and inducting them in the political process. Though a natural charmer, Rajiv was also abrasive in his public outbursts. He sacked and replaced senior civil servants and CMs. A reluctant politician, Rajiv also created the dismal dynastic landmark of being the first Gandhi who failed to win a second electoral mandate.

His wife Sonia turned out to be the exception. No doubt, she was guided by Machiavellian elements to get rid of P V Narasimha Rao, and then Sita Ram Kesari as Congress Presidents in a questionable manner. But she retained old family loyalists and brought the Congress back to power within six years of taking over as party president. She realised that a person like Manmohan Singh with his impeccable track record minus political ambition would be the best choice to run the country. She made him the PM but retained the power to choose his ministers and exercised her right to provide mandatory policy instructions on many issues. He turned out to be an asset who delivered handsome dividends. The Gandhis have now realised that CEO Singh and his executives have outlived their utility and can’t ensure profits anymore. As a single shareholder, Rahul wants a CEO who understands not stock exchanges in New York and Mumbai but political markets in Muzzafarnagar and Madurai. He feels that the current government leadership can’t retain the current market of the Congress, which will shrink if corrective measures aren’t taken. He wants the endorsement of the masses, not markets.

After Nehru and Indira, it was under Sonia’s leadership that the party won for a second time with a record number of 206 seats—more than what Rajiv garnered in 1989. Now, almost 24 years later, his son, who is seen as a part-time politician, has realised that he would be held accountable for the lapses of the government, which is misperceived as functioning through remote control by the Gandhis. With his mother taking lesser and lesser interest in party affairs, it is for Rahul to revive the Congress and take it to victory in 2014. So far, he has been an outsider crisscrossing the country in search of Bharat, accompanied by close aides. Hardly have the PM and other senior party leaders consulted him on national issues. So, the young inheritor finds himself disconnected with their style of working. By projecting Rahul as India’s future prime minister, party veterans have already made him the general who has to win the war of 2014. Rahul understands the trap. From being a frequent traveller within and outside India, he is now forced to become a full-time politician and face the heat and dust of dirty Indian politics. Rahul has taken the plunge by sending a message. He has taken a risk, which could mar or make his career. He has minimised the PM, but it takes much more than just talk to become the country’s maximum leader.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

In UPA Il's twilight, PMO takes wings..Power & Politics/The Sunday Standard /September 22, 2013

In UPA II's twilight, PMO takes wings for smooth takeoff of Manmohan's dream project

South Block’s current fatal obsession is not about engaging friends and foes of the world’s superpowers. For the past few weeks, the goalposts of Indian diplomacy have changed. All energies of the Indian establishment’s many paid and unpaid megaphones are being diverted to get the PM’s dream project airborne. Since the Nuclear Civil Agreement is Manmohan Singh’s single genuine achievement in his two terms in office, he wants to ensure that it takes off in with fanfare and fireworks. He couldn’t have chosen a better venue than Narendra Modi-ruled Gujarat. Suddenly, the diplomatic discourse that had moved towards peace talks with Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif has become just a footnote in the discussion papers in the dossiers prepared for the PM’s US visit next week. Since it is customary for all visiting Heads of State to carry gifts for their counterparts, the Indian PM has been advised to take along a copy of the pact between the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL) and Westinghouse, the US multinational which supplies nuclear reactors to many.

Since the PM is an accidental politician who trusts more in his academics than political polemics, he doesn’t mind ignoring the electoral compulsions and fallout of his actions. It is not a coincidence that NPCIL was suddenly activated to seek legal opinion from the country’s top law officer on how to bypass nuances and legal bindings of the nuclear law passed by Parliament. The Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) reports directly to the PM and all nuclear-related establishments like NPCIL and Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) fall under the ambit of PMO. According to reports and senior diplomats who facilitated the agreement in 2008, India promised various US globocorps over 10,000 MWs of power, worth over $20 billion in contracts. Five years later, not a single deal has been finalised because of the protective Clause 17 in the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act. It was understood that the Indian operator would insert a clause in the agreement which provides heavy compensation in case of any accident. But not only the US but also its corporates have mounted pressure on India to dilute this clause. For the past few months, top leaders like Vice-President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry have been protesting to Manmohan on the delay in the dilution of the liability laws. Even the heavyhitters in the Senate have been relentlessly attacking the UPA for its inaction.

Only last month, Mark Warner and John Cornyn wrote a strongly worded letter to President Obama: “Eight years later, the agreement has not been implemented and we have yet to see India provide a workable nuclear liability agreement that allows companies to move forward.” Curiously, US corporates are not mounting pressure on their own government to encourage the setting up of nuclear power plants at home. Even America’s steadfast ally Japan is dismantling its nuclear plants following Fukushima. Hence it was puzzling that Ashwani Kumar, the PM’s temporary special envoy to Japan, should boast about the assurance he claims to have received from the Japanese on extending help to India in our nuclear energy programme. Ironically, on the same day, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe had announced that the toxic remains of the Fukushima plant would be destroyed.  While the world can ignore the might of the greenback, it is India which dances to the tune of the American corporates.  

It is, therefore, not surprising that the government is determined to exploit the loopholes in the manipulated and mutilated mandate it got in Parliament to pass the nuclear agreement. Obama and the US nuclear lobby hustled the agreement through at home. But invisible and lucrative assurances given to the US during the 2008 negotiations through interlocutors are now beginning to surface. The mandarins of both White House and South Block with the backing of powerful business forums in both countries are now working overtime to finalise the fineprint of a draft which will allow Westinghouse entry in India’s nuclear energy business. But the roadblock is within. According to unconfirmed sources, the AEC which dealt with superpowers and the US to push the deal through is angry because DEA had bypassed it. Also, supporters of the well-tested Indo-Russian strategic relationship are of the view that the Americans can’t be trusted as they are guided by profit motives and would subvert any legal provision which ensures the security of Indian citizens. The fight between the pro-Russian and pro-American lobbies in India is acquiring dangerous proportions, leading to the leakage of several classified  documents. Even senior diplomats are surprised over the speed with which the PMO is promoting the nuke deal. Since most have been chosen for their ideological commitment to the US model and nuclear energy, they are likely to win in the end. On the other hand, those who are pleading for slow action feel that the next government may dilute the agreement. But these critics have been silenced by the PMO with the excuse that the BJP’s opposition to the unfolding revelations is pathetically feeble. Since the beneficiary of the dilution of the liability clause would be Gujarat—the palatine of BJP’s PM candidate—the PMO expects a rough but safe ride to Washington. Ironically, though Modi never misses an opportunity to attack Manmohan as a ‘maun pradhanmantri’, on nuclear projects for his state, Modi’s maunvrat has become Manmohan’s mantra for his mission. The PM may return to India wearing a broad smile and showing the V-sign even if it means an embarrassment to Congress and BJP leadership.

PS: Dr Rakesh Sood’s appointment as PM’s Special Envoy on Disarmament has stirred a hornet’s nest in the nuclear lobby within. As the PMO readies to take the N-deal forward, those who have failed to secure any post-retirement sinecures have started a whisper campaign. Their novel epiphany is that Sood would work against the deal. Some are even trying to restrain his responsibilities and minimise his say in any future nuclear engagement with the US. But the PM is in no mood to patronise the saboteurs.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

Modi must become an institution ... Power & Politics/ The Sunday Standard/September 15, 2013

Modi must become an institution like Vajpayee to become a symbol of India

The old BJP is dead! Long live the new BJP! The operatic anointment of 61-year-old Narendra Damodardas Modi as the BJP’s new helmsman doesn’t reflect just a generational shift. He epitomises a new breed of politicians whose words speak louder than their work. The Modi marvel is an antidote to Vajpayeeism—the pause generating a faster pace of political acceptability. It also marks the end of L K Advani’s agenda based on evolving and tweaking ideology according to the need of the times. Modi is now the BJP’s modern mascot and mantra. He is seen as the most visible, decisive and credible alternative to the Gandhis. He is also perceived as a leader who would sacrifice systems and formalities for the Modi Model of Governance. For him, the democratic process is just another exercise to acquire legitimacy and authority to achieve his targets. The new BJP under Modi is sure to run politics on the lines of a business model, in which time-bound achievements and not excuses will decide the fate of the stakeholders. His track record in office is the envy of his adversaries. He knows how to sell an idea to both the masses and the classes. The villain of 2002 is now the hero of 2013.

No such parallel exists anywhere in the democratic world of a minimised leader becoming the maximum leader by nudging out all his contemporaries within and outside the party. Modi’s propulsion to the national stage is the sign of a new India where degree, pedigree or an elitist social tag can no longer dictate a leader’s destiny. Modi is the first state satrap who has been chosen to lead the national party, superseding the claims of upper caste, well-spoken and elitist national leaders who have no state to call their own.

Though the choice of Modi was finally dictated by the emotional fortissimo of political necessity, both the BJP and RSS had found it difficult to spot a leader who could energise a demoralised cadre and defend Hindutva’s core ideology. They saw in Modi a commander who could communicate with the people directly and connect with the aspirations of the youth. Vajpayee could, with oratory and an affable persona. Modi has done it with his performance and aggressive personality. He is neither a team leader nor a team player. Modi is the team and the leader all rolled into one because he firmly believes that democracy ends when action begins. Ever since he won the Gujarat Assembly elections for the third time, he was projected as the only saviour of the faction-ridden BJP in which there are more candidates for prime ministership than the number of national parties in the country. By choosing Modi, the Sangh Parivar has closed the door on others—at least for now.

Both the BJP and Modi have taken a big risk. The party has handed over its leadership to a person who trusts only his spoken words and his tested wisdom. No one can find fault with his decisiveness, clarity of thought, personal integrity and missionary zeal. It is because of these unique selling points that the entire party ignored Advani’s well-reasoned opposition to Modi’s elevation. Advani was never against projecting Modi as PM, but was dissentient on the timing, as he felt that the 2014 election should be fought on the issues of corruption and non-performance of the UPA government. Advani and others were also of the view that once Modi became the face of the party, the Congress and other parties would sweep their poor governance under the carpet and turn  the election into a Mahabharata between secular and communal forces.

But the patriarch’s objections were ruthlessly overruled because of the massive pressure mounted by impatient cadres and middle-level leaders on the party high command. They are convinced that Modi would run the party like the chief executive of a big corporation whose targets and means are well defined and result-oriented. They think that he is the only one who can expand the market share of the BJP by promoting it as a unique product, bearing the distinctive Modi brand name. The Gujarat chief minister has already mastered the art of communication using cutting-edge technology. He always thinks out-of-the-box and comes out with schemes and ideas that has never been seen before in politics. For example, projecting holograms using 3D technology to ensure that his presence is felt in all districts in Gujarat is a device that has never been used by any political leader to connect with voters. Such persuasive instruments prompted foreign diplomats, who abhorred him for over a decade, to seek a minute of his indulgence now. Modi’s novel delivery mechanisms also forced leaders of India Inc who once shunned him as a political bezonian to seek photo-ops with him.

Achieving status is altogether a different ball game than living up to it. Now that Modi has crossed internal hurdles within the party, he has to soothe all genuine fears about his style and substance. Running a state government with a brute majority is not the same as managing a coalition at the Centre in which every leader is a kingmaker. Modi’s first challenge is to ensure that none of his senior leaders are ignored in the party and he doesn’t run the BJP with the help of corporate paratroopers. After all, party workers and middle-level leaders are not shareholders looking for monetary dividends. They want an ideology to dictate governance. Modi is labelled as a divisive leader. He has to get rid of this lethal label because the BJP is unlikely to win a majority on its own in 2014. Since Modi has taken a big risk, he has to learn to respect the ones with genuine differences of opinion. With the birth of new BJP, a new Modi, too, has to be born. The idea of a ‘Modi from Gujarat’ cannot become a symbol of India unless he becomes an institution like Vajpayee.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow me on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

New dispensation will inherit... /Power & Politics /The Sunday Standard, September 08, 2013

New dispensation will inherit injured economy and diminished diplomatic legacy

Diplomacy is not just the art of sweeping difficult situations under the carpet. It is also an instrument to score invisible victories. Indian diplomats have acquired new expertise in converting inconvenient realities into inglorious heritage. Last week, when Defence Minister A K Antony was cornered for his ministry’s failure to contain the Chinese Army’s growing incursions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), he blamed the 1962 war for India’s current border woes. Antony hardly speaks his own mind. But he was told by diplomats that sending strong signals of protest to the Chinese would provide fuel to warmongers and pseudo-nationalists. For the past few years, Indian diplomats have become internationalists who care more about how their words impact international community than their domestic consequences. Never before has the Indian Foreign Service been so concerned about kowtowing to aggressors like Pakistan and China as they are during the UPA regime. Absolving our hostile neighbours is their new mission. For example, for the past few months China’s People’s Liberation Army has been arrogantly establishing physical control over large areas falling on the Indian side of the LAC. But India’s Ambassador to Beijing Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is more concerned about his future responsibilities as India’s next ambassador to the US. It is during his three-year tenure that China successfully captured not only India’s markets by dumping cheap goods but also expanded her geographical girth. Yet he has been rewarded with a better assignment for failing to raise the alarm and advising the government to take corrective measures against our neighbour’s hostile intentions. Jaishankar represents the new breed of Indian diplomats who are successful in pursuing their own agenda even at the cost of damaging the political credibility of the government they serve. It is not surprising that not even once have the Opposition and foreign policy experts blamed our diplomats for ignoring the national mood. After some of them realised that in the New World Order, strategic and security considerations play an important role in their future prospects, they are succumbing to the pressure mounted by strategic thinkers. Since adopting an aggressive posture against Pakistan and China is deemed as going against global strategic considerations, South Block mandarins are willing to sacrifice good diplomacy to protect strategic dialogue, whether in India or abroad.

AK Antony's speech on China in Parliament reflects that Indian diplomats have become internationalists who care more about how their words impact the international community than their domestic consequences.

In the past decade, the offices of the National Security Advisors of countries, from the US to India, define the contours of diplomatic moves. Their objective is to ensure an unreal yet tenuous global peace even if the results are lethal economic and security blowbacks in the long run. It is not just a coincidence that both China and Pakistan have taken on India at a time when America is involved in containing or toppling regimes in West Asia using its military might. The US establishment is determined to ignore domestic opinion against military intervention in Syria. It’s no wonder that the US advises India to exercise restraint but ignores China and Pakistan’s military adventurism. Taking a cue from Big Brother, Indian opinion-makers and think tank “intellectuals” have maintained a diplomatic silence against US aggression in West Asia. New York was the centre for launching the US economic doctrine for the rest of the world. Now Washington has become the launching capital for defining the template for global security.

Last fortnight when I wrote about the collapse of Indian diplomacy, a failed and accidental diplomat launched a diatribe against me. Short of calling me names, he questioned my sources and logic, forgetting that I knew more about his kind of diplomacy and other shenanigans going on in South Block. There were a couple of factual errors in my column. The thrust of the article, however, was that cronyism is the key determinant for choosing diplomats to key positions. Some officers like Ashok Kantha and P S Raghavan mentioned in my column are outstanding officers with impeccable integrity, but their appointments were marred by the ad hoc selection of other colleagues for better sinecures. Now the government is moving fast to fill vacant posts and correcting past errors. For example, I questioned the absence of an expert to deal with the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Last week the Prime Minister chose Dr Rakesh Sood as his envoy to deal with disarmament. Sood is one of the rare diplomats who knows nuclear diplomacy and science like the back of his hand. Similarly, the foreign ministry finalised the appointment of the current Ambassador to Malaysia, Vijay Keshav Gokhale, a 1981-batch officer as India’s next envoy to Germany. His compulsory foreign language is Chinese, yet he has been picked to replace Sujatha Singh who took over as foreign secretary recently. T S Tirumurti, an Arabic-speaking officer of 1985 batch, replaces Gokhale. An excellent diplomat, Tirumurti has been “rewarded” for his rebellious nature; in 2011, he was moved from the key position of joint secretary (BSM). The Prime Minister, however, is yet to find a candidate for the UK because he has to make a choice between a person who can protect both the Indian market and security or one whose only concern would be to become a part of the diplomacy dictated by Big Brother.

As the elections draw near, the PMO is moving very cautiously, since the next government would scrutinise in detail the credentials and credibility of those diplomats who have been or would be chosen for important assignments. With half a dozen of them retiring within the next few months, Indian diplomacy is also likely to suffer much damage to its authority and effectiveness along with the political establishment. The new dispensation will not only inherit a mauled economy but also a diminished diplomatic legacy.

prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com; Follow  on Twitter @PrabhuChawla