Don’t write him off / Mail Today, July 28, 2008

Politicians have a tendency to think they are always right and everyone else is wrong. Manmohan Singh’s coming of age as a politician happened only last week when he showed the kind of chicanery hitherto not associated with him and against all odds, won the confidence vote despite parliamentary arithmetic showing that parties ( as against individual MPs) arraigned against his government carried more votes than those that supported the UPA. In his speech in the Lok Sabha, he taunted the Left MPs, reminding them of the “ company ( BJP) they are forced to keep because of the miscalculations of their General Secretary”. The Prime Minister was both right and wrong. He was right to the extent that when the Left and the Right got together, they both got it wrong and could not pull the government down. But he was wrong in his assessment of CPI( M) supremo Karat’s calculations which were bang on; he kept his MPs intact and delivered the Left votes en bloc. The miscalculations were that of the BJP leadership. Shamefully for a cadre based party, it couldn’t ensure that its flock stayed together. I will come to that later. Personally I have no sympathy for the Left. Yet, I can’t but admire the fact that in today’s murky politics, Left leaders, at least a majority of them, are above board. And none more so than Karat who doesn’t look around for endorsement from outside the party to carry on with what he believes is right. That most of his predecessors were mostly on the right side of the Congress may have something to do with the fact that the Grand Old Party was led by the likes of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi whose politics were slightly Left of Centre. Karat’s ascension came at a crucial period in Indian politics and I have reason to believe that, even when the CPI( M) decided to back the Congressled government in 2004, Karat had identified it as the Enemy Number One. Its numerical strength gave the BJP the status of main Opposition party but it was the Left that occupied the Opposition space with its rigid postures that brought the government to its knees on a host of issues. As a Congress minister told me, it was “ support from outside but sabotage from within”. It was, if anything, a fantastic display of Karat’s tactical skill. With the CPI( M) having to duel with the Congress in Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura where all its MPs come from, Karat began his search for non- Congress, non- BJP allies in other states long ago. Chandra Babu Naidu, Deve Gowda and Mulayam Singh Yadav were all in the bag. Now, far from losing sleep over Mulayam Singh’s departure, he may actually be saying good riddance, since he has got a bigger catch in Mayawati who will help add to the Left base consisting of the labour classes, the landless, peasants and minorities. There is no way the CPI( M) will win the 59 seats it has in the 14th Lok Sabha from its three strongholds but I have no doubt that, thanks to Karat’s shrewd planning, the numbers will still add up from new territories. Don’t write him off. In a few months’ time, he may still be the King or Queen makerPoliticians have a tendency to think they are always right and everyone else is wrong. Manmohan Singh’s coming of age as a politician happened only last week when he showed the kind of chicanery hitherto not associated with him and against all odds, won the confidence vote despite parliamentary arithmetic showing that parties ( as against individual MPs) arraigned against his government carried more votes than those that supported the UPA. In his speech in the Lok Sabha, he taunted the Left MPs, reminding them of the “ company ( BJP) they are forced to keep because of the miscalculations of their General Secretary”. The Prime Minister was both right and wrong. He was right to the extent that when the Left and the Right got together, they both got it wrong and could not pull the government down. But he was wrong in his assessment of CPI( M) supremo Karat’s calculations which were bang on; he kept his MPs intact and delivered the Left votes en bloc. The miscalculations were that of the BJP leadership. Shamefully for a cadre based party, it couldn’t ensure that its flock stayed together. I will come to that later. Personally I have no sympathy for the Left. Yet, I can’t but admire the fact that in today’s murky politics, Left leaders, at least a majority of them, are above board. And none more so than Karat who doesn’t look around for endorsement from outside the party to carry on with what he believes is right. That most of his predecessors were mostly on the right side of the Congress may have something to do with the fact that the Grand Old Party was led by the likes of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi whose politics were slightly Left of Centre. Karat’s ascension came at a crucial period in Indian politics and I have reason to believe that, even when the CPI( M) decided to back the Congressled government in 2004, Karat had identified it as the Enemy Number One. Its numerical strength gave the BJP the status of main Opposition party but it was the Left that occupied the Opposition space with its rigid postures that brought the government to its knees on a host of issues. As a Congress minister told me, it was “ support from outside but sabotage from within”. It was, if anything, a fantastic display of Karat’s tactical skill. With the CPI( M) having to duel with the Congress in Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura where all its MPs come from, Karat began his search for non- Congress, non- BJP allies in other states long ago. Chandra Babu Naidu, Deve Gowda and Mulayam Singh Yadav were all in the bag. Now, far from losing sleep over Mulayam Singh’s departure, he may actually be saying good riddance, since he has got a bigger catch in Mayawati who will help add to the Left base consisting of the labour classes, the landless, peasants and minorities. There is no way the CPI( M) will win the 59 seats it has in the 14th Lok Sabha from its three strongholds but I have no doubt that, thanks to Karat’s shrewd planning, the numbers will still add up from new territories. Don’t write him off. In a few months’ time, he may still be the King or Queen maker.

Snippets / Mail Today, July 28, 2008

At last, we have 275

WHO WOULD have expected an alumnus of Doon School, St Stephen’s College and Trinity Hall, Cambridge and a parliamentarian of 24 years standing to be among the 50- odd technologically challenged MPs who used a paper slip to cast their vote in the confidence motion? Yet that’s how Mani Shankar Aiyer voted on July 22. And he’s in good company. Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, former chief ministers Babulal Marandi, Kalyan Singh and FC Sardinha, Mehbooba Mufti, SS Dhindsa were among the many who took the same route. I have reason to believe the machines didn’t just conk out. The voting record obtained from the Lok Sabha Speaker’s office shows that a majority of the 44 MPs who used the paper vote belonged to the Opposition but when the votes were counted, they were split almost equally, for and against. As for how this happened, my guess is as good as yours. Miracles don’t often happen in politics but this one gave the UPA 275 votes when it commanded the support of less than 260 MPs. If Somnathda were to take his new found independence to its logical end and take action against the erring MPs under the anti- defection law and expel them, the UPA will find itself in a minority.

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IT’S nearly a week since the trust vote and in the BJP, it’s time for recriminations. The blame game and the finger pointing isn’t unexpected considering the colossal mismanagement and the pathetic handling by the party managers that led to this embarrassment. After all, the BJP’s USP was the discipline of its cadres. Yet, in the vote where the winner and loser were expected to be separated by a vote or two, the UPA ended up winning by 19 votes, 14 of which came from the BJP and its alliance partners in the NDA. What went wrong is clear to all but the party’s own leaders who are busy shifting the blame. The powerful trinity of Ananth Kumar, Venkiah Naidu and Arun Jaitley which took upon itself the task of ousting the government seemed clueless about what was going on right under their noses and are now shell- shocked. The mine mafia from Bellary provided ample proof that, for them, politics was an extension of business. They were seen openly hobnobbing with YS Rajashekhara Reddy at Andhra Bhavan, a stone’s throw from 11 Ashoka Road where the three hold court every evening. It is perhaps just a coincidence that these first term MLAs in the Karnataka Assembly have a lot of business interests in Andhra Pradesh. It will be foolish to expect the troika that appropriated all the credit for BJP’s win in Karnataka two months ago to shoulder the blame for this disaster which saw three of its MPs from the state switch sides. A few chief ministers, current and former, are also left red- faced. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar handpicked Ram Swaroop Prasad for Nalanda which was his seat. Naveen Patnaik who represented family seat Aska, gave the seat to Harihar Swain when he became chief minister. The TDP’s Audikesavalu won from Chittor, Chandrababu Naidu’s home town. All of them switched their votes. The NDA partners have been quick to expel all defectors. But that’s like bolting the door after the horses have fled.

***********

ONE of the defining attributes of both Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh is their ability to grab the chance. Every chance. A week ago, both said they do not want to join the government, but now all signals point to the Samajwadi Party joining the government for the remainder of its term. Mulayam may not join the Cabinet and will most likely nominate a few of his deputies, but I gather that he and Amar Singh will take up posts that are vested with the authority of the central government and also carry the status of a Union Cabinet Minister. It makes their job of gunning for Maya much easier. Not to speak of it getting more enjoyable since as central ministers, they will have to be extended full protocol by the Uttar Pradesh Government on their visits to the state.

The Making of the Prime Minister / India Today, August 4, 2008

The Making of the Prime Minister

Once upon a time in India, there was a prime minister who was a prime-time embodiment of un-freedom. An honourable man and a dutiful servant of the system, he was made the chief administrator by the imperial decree of the Empress Dowager of 10 Janpath, whose power was absolute.

The chosen one owed his luck to the benevolence of the maximum leader, who, in a superbly choreographed melodrama of renunciation in the Central Hall of Parliament, stunned the courtiers with her "no".

In power, he was a man fettered, as the miniature Kremlin in the country's capital exercised its ideological veto whenever he attempted reform in the marketplace.

Then, with his eyes set on history but his feet still on slippery political ground, he entered into a civilian nuclear pact with the other great democracy, the United States of America. Horror, cried the commissar and a Stalinist stench enveloped Indraprastha. Kill the deal or be killed-the ultimatum was given.

And the prime minister, who was the least political at a time when politics for the comrades was pure harlotry, couldn't afford-or didn't have the mandate-to antagonise the tormentor.

He suffered in silence as the rusty anti-imperialism of the Marxists dominated the day. He wanted the deal, somehow, but he didn't have the conviction to stand by something—perhaps the only thing—he hoped would be his legacy. It was as if the meekest had inherited the office. Then one fateful day….

A triumphant prime minister

On July 22, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, as he stood in the House with the poise of a warrior king, it was unlikely that he would have recognised the other prime minister.

More likely, Manmohan Rearmed may not even want to know that non-entity from history. It is not the time to be distracted by the past, and if there is any resemblance between the two, it is accidental-an adjective that Manmohan's biography won't be able to avoid.

At the moment, though, enthralled Manmohanites are struggling to find new adjectives to mythify his heroism. Look around and see the sweep of his triumph, even if you find it hard to discount the moral cost of the operation.

Comrade Prakash Karat, till the other day the omnipotent general secretary who fantasised about having an eternal mandate to rule India by proxy, was elsewhere, plotting a purge in his own party.

The apparatchik lost the day because of his ideological overreach. The prime minister took particular care to separate the "miscalculating" general secretary from friends like Jyoti Basu and Harkishan Singh Surjeet to emphasise the "betrayal" by a traditional ally at the Centre.

It was his day of independence from the Marxist zealots who held India to ransom. Manmohan has always had a privileged place in middle class India. On July 22, by the final act of exorcism that brought an end to the Red Evil, he has taken complete copyright of it.

Idolised in the drawing rooms of middle India and celebrated in the marketplace (the Sensex went down by 30 per cent in the run-up to the vote but it was up by 8-10 per cent during the debate), he is no longer the prisoner prime minister, at least for a while in public perception.

And surprisingly, converts and believers alike refuse to see the moral cost of Singh Shining. Shibu Soren? Those wads of currency notes in the well of the House?

Sonia and Rahul Gandhi

Ah well, stuff happens in a democracy like India, so you are being asked to suspend your moral revulsion- keep it for another day. Remember, this despite the fact that it was a few unscrupulous individuals but not any party that made him the winner in a nail-biting finale.

More than a winner. The vote finally made him a conviction politician. For a long time, as a victim of Karat's anti-imperialism, it seemed he was seriously suffering from c-deficiency ("c" as in conviction).

All those days, he was prime minister but certainly not the prime mover of Indian politics. There was, of course, the Leader to take the decision, and he-the obedient, the dutiful, the diligent- was happy to be led, and shown the path marked by red flags.

Perhaps he didn't have the freedom to resign. No deal was worth the displeasure of the Leader-or the comrades who sustained the Leadership. Finally he dared-and called Karat's bluff. He had an agenda and he was ready to die for it.

"All I had asked our Left colleagues was: please allow us to go through the negotiating process and I will come to Parliament before operationalising the nuclear agreement. This simple courtesy which is essential for orderly functioning of any government worth the name, particularly with regard to the conduct of foreign policy, they were not willing to grant me. They wanted a veto over every single step of negotiations, which is not acceptable. They wanted me to behave as their bonded slave," he told the House.

Like a politician who was worth his word- and who was fully in the game. It was his first vote of confidence as prime minister, and it legitimised him as a politician who can set the agenda. He so badly needed this legitimacy test. He is the chosen prime minister, not the elected prime minister.

In a way, what happened on Tuesday was the most defining political test of his career. Beware, henceforth, the prime minister of India will be a political being. The prime minister-in-waiting was his obvious target:

"(BJP leader L.K. Advani) has described me as the weakest prime minister, a nikamma PM, and of having devalued the office of PM. To fulfill his ambitions, he has made at least three attempts to topple our Government. But on each occasion his astrologers have misled him. This pattern, I am sure, will be repeated today. At his ripe old age (this is not Rahul Gandhi speaking but Manmohan who at 75 is only five years junior to his rival), I do not expect Shri Advani to change his thinking. But for his sake and India's sake, I urge him at least to change his astrologers so that he gets more accurate predictions of things to come."

He doesn't stop there. The freshly minted politician has tasted blood and he wants to cut deeper. Advani, in the rhetorical flourish of Manmohan, was the perpetrator of almost everything that was "unforgivable" in the recent history of India.

He was the home minister who "slept when terrorists were knocking at the doors of our Parliament". He inspired the destruction of the Babri Masjid. He found "virtues in Mr Jinnah" but his party and his RSS mentors "disowned" him for that.

"Can our nation approve the conduct of a home minister who was sleeping while Gujarat was burning? Our friends in the Left Front should ponder over the company they are forced to keep because of miscalculations by their general secretary."

Pretty savage, but look at the change of tone when it comes to the Left. Still there are "friends" out there, and they are misled by the general secretary. Manmohan is getting personal, and isn't it news as it comes from the so-called gentleman prime minister?

Mulayam and Amar Singh have sunk their differences and seem to work in perfect unison

Now that he is a full-fledged politician, he seems to realise that it is not all that easy to remain gentle, particularly when you are pitted against a war-scarred veteran like Advani and a ruthless apparatchik like Karat, who spends most of his waking hours in a Stalinist make-believe.

So the suddenly aggressive prime minister, aware of his stardom and growing popularity, has positioned himself as the Congress prime ministerial candidate of E-2009.

Advani, prime minister-in-waiting, is the natural enemy, and politically, a formidable one. The attack on Advani was a calculated one, and more is likely to follow as the battle of two prime ministerial candidates enters a critical phase.

In the run-up to the vote, Politician Manmohan has been at his interactive best. He met with all allies, and spoke individually to most MPs.

He not only succeeded in keeping the allies with him but ensured that no UPA MP defied the whip while NDA and other opposition parties lost 12 MPs to the ruling coalition. (Kuldeep Bishnoi of Haryana was the only rebel but he was anyway a suspended member.) The politician is at full throttle, and that means trouble.

Life as a stage-managed prime minister with no scope for political manoeuvrability must have been quite comfortable, even though occasionally humiliating.

As a political prime minister who refuses to surrender, in the next few months before the general elections, he has a lot to prove-or lose. Now that the South Block is not haunted by the Marxist spectre, the first guru of liberalisation has to deliver (see box).

The expectations are high and Manmohan would like to make the best use of his freedom. Is the freedom unlimited? Don't forget that the big-bang Tuesday was a victory with a price tag. Karat may have gone but the new oxygen suppliers are people like the Samajwadi Party General Secretary Amar Singh, now the most influential political deal maker in the ruling establishment, and the JMM leader Soren.

The traditional allies will stand by him, but it is the new bunch of friends that could cause problems

There is no unconditional support in politics and Manmohan will be under pressure to return the favours. He may have won the trust vote, but can he ever win the moral war?

And technically, it is still a minority government: of the 19 who saved him, 12 belong to the opposition parties. To please DMK, the Government has already brought Ram to the battleground, much to the electoral delight of the battered BJP.

The Centre, in an affidavit, told the Supreme Court on July 23 that it was Lord Ram who destroyed Ram Sethu in the Palk Strait. When gods are dragged into Indian politics, the victims are always humans, but Manmohan still doesn't have the political autonomy to tell DMK's M. Karunanidhi that simple truth.

Then what about the fate of Force Manmohan within the Congress itself? A true internationalist who strives to ensure India's rightful place in the global power structure.

A moderniser who risks his Government for a politically divisive but nationally enriching nuclear agenda. Like Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee before him, he, too, has an idea about India, and now, he has shown the political will to stand by it.

For allies like Sharad Pawar and Amar Singh Brand Manmohan is the obvious Congress candidate for the top job in the next general elections. Really?

The party is not known for projecting anyone as prime minister candidate, unless the candidate has the right bloodline. Will the party let an icon flourish outside the dynasty?

Manmohan may invoke the visionary leadership of Sonia Gandhi and the future hope called Rahul Gandhi, but will the First Family of Indian politics cherish the prospect of a power trinity?

If the prime minister is a Congressman with a historical memory, he should know the answers. And he should be a very realistic man. The ecstasy of July 22 is neutralised by a million such hidden agonies.

Seedhi Baat: Amar Singh, July 27, 2008

BJP is 'Bharat Jalao Party'

Anybody who was opposed to the national interest was defeated during the trust vote. The party which played the dirty game was BJP, says Amar Singh
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Oil’s well with Lalu and the sheikhs/ Mail Today, July 28, 2008

HAVING achieved the impossible in turning the Indian Railways into a profit- making outfit, Lalu Prasad Yadav has raised the bar. He now wants to bring crude prices down. Not international crude prices, which in any case have dipped marginally in the last two weeks, but the price that India pays for the black gold from West Asian countries. His speech during the confidence vote, typically a mixture of the serious and the comical, was more proof that for Lalu, nothing is impossible. Even the Opposition members were seen laughing and cheering him. Search YouTube and you would find that the number of clips and hits of Lalu’s speech grows by the hour, which is perhaps an indication that even Gen- Next is beginning to trust the man who is now on the must- call- on list of visiting students from Harvard and Stanford business schools. With the Railways in the pink of health, Lalu has now shifted attention to the country’s oil requirements and believes that if anyone can help bring down the country’s soaring import bills, it is him. He has been lobbying with the Prime Minister and everyone else that matters that he be sent as a special envoy to the Gulf countries. He is confident that his rustic charm combined with pro- minority credentials will melt the hearts of the filthy rich rulers of the sheikhdoms and make them give special concessions for India’s rapidly burgeoning petroleum imports. Lalu has in the past pulled many rabbits out of his hat and for the sake of the aam aadmi , Manmohan Singh should heed Lalu’s request, waive the ban on foreign tours by ministers and put him on a special plane on this very special mission. It won’t be wasteful expenditure.

Amar Singh:The day of the dealmaker/India Today, July 28, 2008

The day of the DEALMAKER

Power, at its most deceptive level, is an absence. At 27 Lodhi Estate on a Tuesday morning, it is an absence accentuated by the stillness of gilded kitsch and other objects that give an idea about the aesthetics of the resident. He likes his own image, an immaculately suited gentleman leaning against the wall on the arty South Bank, the Thames and the London Eye forming a perfect backdrop. Providing company to this framed piece in the drawing room are sundry gods and exotic warriors in metallic splendour. The man himself is elsewhere, in another room with a colleague, certainly not discussing the weather, and the waiting visitor in the meantime is being attended by a young female receptionist with the ease of an air stewardess. Then there he is, arguably the second most powerful politician in the country at the moment, sending off the visibly tentative colleague with a few reassuring words and a pat on the back before welcoming you to the privacy of the next room. The deception continues. He is a very small man, literally, and everything around him—the deity of Tirupati, the television, the chandelier—is big. It is as if you are with a mercilessly squeezed version of what was once Amar Singh, the proverbial portly Thakur. Ailments may have made him a man withered, but he is the Amar Singh, be assured. The maestro of manipulation who makes the impossible happen. The devious dealmaker who brings the incompatibles together. read more